RE: Bloomberg - on Black Panther and £180M US w/e so far15 Nov 2022 10:13
“Sp was pricing in 'bankruptcy'. Aka full on liquidation and wipeout. That is why SP reached a 1.8p low and funds that bought in the 30-50s sold and wrote it off.”
That’s your interpretation. The reality could be very different depending on the outcome. Look how much further MADE fell once the options fell off the table. If you look at VUE it has completely different private equity owners now. You need to factor in the possibility that your holding in a newco could be a slither if anything at all.
“There are more possibilities on the table, and SP reflects that at the moment.”
Such as? It looks to me like the options are laid out pretty clear in the RNSs and court docs.
“Would you rather own a part of a movie company that does not give dividend, or be a secured creditor that receives interest?”
This is the decision sophisticated investors have to make which might not be aligned to the interests of PIs. They factor is all sorts - in this current macro environment conditions are not favourable for profits due in two or three years time with an uncertain roadmap.
‘Aside from the worst case where all existing shares are forfeited, a slimmer, low debt CINE is still better for existing shareholders. D4E or not.’
In my opinion this will not hold true. A slimmer more profitable Cineworld will see existing shareholders all but wiped out and the benefits will pass to whoever comes to the rescue be that current creditors having taken a substantial haircut (and it will be sustantial if the debt reduction is substantial) or the new owners following the sale of the family jewels. Those proceeds will go towards paying down debt as the DIP lenders have first lien, then secured lenders then unsecured creditors, etc, etc.
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