Member Info for wolfhound

Hi Retire Early

The premium is being driven by speculation of a higher bid materialing, see recent posts o this thread as to the background. This is the 3rd time we have seen sp spike in last week or so to 717p so market clearly feels speculation has merit.

GLA

Back at 708p , thinks must be hotting up

GLA

Interesting, just as sp spiked on29th October @717p, p squared asset management opened a short on 2mn+ shares on a stock that has a 680p offer floor and speculation of a bidder..... not a great risk/reward call IMHO 37p max payoff per share -v- maybe a downside of £2 possibly £2.50

Ever get the feeling someone is trying to hold sp back ....

Shorts have been know to cannily close just b4 a new bid..

Yep and it seems like SciGames may not be the only ones....
https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/13555/jason-ader-exclusive-nothing-preventing-igt-apollo-or-scientific-games-bidding-for-playtech?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=pmd_X6mHBdUdhG8yk5oL.IQXFSCsKLbJh84BCQG1CT4O1QY-1635536723-0-gqNtZGzNApCjcnBszQg9

Its all to play for......GLA

Thanks Stefano, it seems the rumour bidders k ow playtech quite well and interestingly just sold their lottery division for $6bn and had done the below strategic tie up in July, 2+2 ??
https://sbcamericas.com/2021/07/19/scientific-games-and-playtech-agree-mutual-distribution-partnership/

GLA

 Speculation from Peel Hunter analyst that there is another bidder : (BFW) Playtech Rises Above Offer Price; PH Says SciGames Might Bid

https://almajir.net/useful-information/details-of-ownership/paul-suen-cho-hung/

The last para on this link could be interesting if same guy

Alot of partial withdrawals of letter of intent as ii sell, so had expected price to dip/drift south,
...but given it is going above bid price does make me think someone knows something, next few weeks could be interesting
GLA

Sp just spiked over the 680,.... new money ?? ??

10bn bpd cut or (10%)

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-says-russia-ready-cooperate-cutting-oil-production-203243929.html

Alto, speculative development might be put on ice but BAU maint, new extraction and upgrading facilities will go ahead. Pfc cutting capacity by 20% , others will also and maybe by more (if big debt levels) so margins should hold up. Heres the thing the lower the oil price the more efficient the big boys need to be, they need to invest to do that in projects to deliver and many if big engineering projects are multi year

What is the breakdown of BP cutback and how much is exploration/speculative related?

Need to assess it in context of current market

If opec+ can agree a price stabilisation pact then the forward sp expectation is positive for recovery so the exdiv sp may not dip or dip by as much as sp,

Shorters must be looking at and wondering ok at 199p how much mire downside is likely to be priced in, on flip side i will have to fund a divi call (16%) and big driver of sp was collapse in olu price and that might be about to disappear and price can spike up.....

Oil price surged by 30% on hope of detente...FT

Dividend payment will hurt shorters and with market reacting to oil price rise, lets see if they cut and run, further spurt on sp

Stay positive and if ya have cash, could well be a very good time to strike

Anyone know what the atatus of xase cant see anything in court listing afer 17th, when case was adjourned?

Perhaps shorters seeing there is a 16% divi have decided time to cut and run ? Might become clearer next week

We can only hope Boris decides it is time SFO was disbanded tout suite

Worth noting that dividend yield is at the target price if 440p, current sp if 346p is an 11% div + 27% capital raise to 440p target giving a combined 38% upside potential

Panic over a flu
A buying opportunity with 11% divi ...fill yer boots

I think we are talking optics, pfc have already taken steps to shore up the Balancesheet by divesting of non core assets and paying down debt.

PFC share price current trades on a pe of approx 7.5, (compare this to John Wood Group on a pe of 50), so once this SFO issue is decided one way or another i anticipate a bounce in sp driven by an expectation of increased pipeline wins in Saudi and Iraq etc. Once this has been put to bed.

Any potential fine is likely to be covered therefore through a mix of future increased profits, borrowings ,etc....

The management team need to continue to box clever as they have been doing, the longer the SFO drag their feet on bringing this to a head the more the market will become immune to its perceived threat and its significance. Case in point the recent win of $1.6 bn

I suspect the SFO will also be consious of the optics here, with Consevatives tackling Brexit the last thing they need is a SFO that damages trade prospects abroad.... in effect labelling to external markets that British firms are acti g dishonestly yet they are doing so with no proof forthcoming .....