The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
to get in, imho-both from an investment or a short-term trade opportunity.
is this going up if the uranium price is still so depressed?
I agree the big catalyst here will be Rosbunker resolution. However, looking at the chart and what's currently doing, I also think it's posing itself for a significant move- I have been wrong in the past though! :D
A shame I couldn't stay, I know!- I actually regretted not having the taken the whole day off instead of just morning. Again, I will blame mr Maldrew for that too, ha! Your post offers a great insight into the technicalities of PAN's upgraded business and hopefully some PIs will make good use of it in their investments decisions. In any case, I agree, we need to send that message to a larger audience, so really need to strengthen our PR machine, ensuring a broader investment community knows about PAN. On a different note, I recently read an article(can't locate it now) that was referring to the shale oil/gas bonanza and the author said the big winners in this energy revolution won't be producers but rather companies operating in the oil services industry. Maybe something for investors to take into consideration too...
"Rosbunker settlement - in any form - could effectively double current price." that's exactly my thinking too.
Fair enough... he didn't do research before buying; but i remember he was in the AGM two years ago- you would guess he would know something by now! Anyway, on my side, I got the information that I wanted: a satisfactory answer about the debt provisions made and the reassurance that (as much as any company could assure on this matter) those debt provisions are unlikely to happen again in the future, and were really a one-off event derived from the past business model, and so far only for accounting purposes. Also, was glad to hear that they seem to stick to that date of April 2014 in relation to the Rosbunker resolution. As a consequence, I think the market cap of this company will be much, much higher by that date (that's my conclusion, no-one else's words) So, overall a v positive AGM....
Anyone shut that old man up?????
You can call me a conspiracy theorist, but I wonder it that Westhouse analyst is a cousin or sort of relative of the dodgy Rosbunker bloke we had in our Russian operations a couple of years ago! all right... let's stay in the world of ladies in bikini....
Of course I meant the lid not the lip!
I I didn't do any maths after last results so don’t have accurate figures. i am hoping that after the AGM I will be able to look at things in more detail As many here are saying, the catalyst of PAN will be Rosbunker resolution. In addition to that, I would say that an update on how much of the debt provisions we have recovered or are recovering, will also affect my sp projections. From previous research, I would say that if we recover a decent part of those bad debts and there's a decent resolution to Rosbunker, I would expect this share to smash through the 25sh P and 29/30p resistance quite decisively( I just think that we have been trapped in a very narrow trading range for too long, so once the lip is open, this should go up at good pace). Once the sp is on the other side of 30p and free from baggage, I would not be surprised to see this share trading in the range of 40/50p within 12 months after Rosbunker resolution. Am afraid, I don't see 87p in the short-medium term, but I wish I will be wrong!!
it looks like it's getting ready to try and assault again the 22-23 p area in the next few days. It would be good if Simon and alia could give it a little push with a a juice AGM next week...
How much more can it go down before starts going up? Mind you some Uranium miners have started to recover in the last few weeks...
cheap is this share now???
I was here a while back and sold making a small profit. I would've held for longer but after the Repsol situation I pulled out as felt the political risk was too high. recently Argentinian govenrment has tried to compensate Repsol. even if not a great offer, my view is that is positive news they are at least trying to compensate, and implications are the Argentinian government sees the need for oil field developments. Hoping GPK can drop a bit more and I will look into buying again.
Uranium In 2012 world consumption of uranium was 165 million pounds versus 152 million pounds of mined uranium production. Globally there are 434 nuclear reactors operable, 67 reactors are under construction, 159 are on order or planned and 318 are proposed. For investors the uranium supply/demand picture is interesting for several reasons: 1. Nuclear power generation is being ramped up across the globe. 2. Japan is restarting its reactors. 3. The Megatons to Megawatts deal, the HEU agreement, is coming to an end. 4. The U.S. has no uranium security of supply Global uranium stockpiles have been filling the gap between consumption and production for more than two decades. By far the largest contributor has been the Russian Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) agreement, providing 24 million pounds of uranium to the market every year. However, secondary supplies are drying up and the HEU agreement is coming to an end in 2013. Cameco (one of the world's largest publicly traded uranium companies) estimates world uranium demand will increase to about 240 million pounds by 2022. The U.S. is in an especially dire situation in regards to the security of its uranium supply and the situation doesn’t look set to improve through exploration or new mine development anytime soon. Employment for uranium exploration in the U.S. was 161 person-years in 2012, a 23 percent decrease compared to 2011. The long lead time of uranium mine development - up to ten years - means that the industry is unable to respond quickly to sudden increases in demand or significant supply interruptions. With the recent lower uranium prices, delays and cancellations of new projects is becoming the norm and exacerbating the coming global and U.S. supply crisis. Ten percent, or just 4.9 million pounds, of the 49 million pounds U3O8e uranium loaded into U.S. civilian nuclear power reactors during 2012 was from U.S. mined uranium, 90 percent was foreign supplied uranium. According to the World Nuclear Association (WNA) there are plans for 13 new reactors in the U.S., three reactor units are under construction, and as many as six may come online in the next decade. Expect uranium spot prices to start climbing to equalize with long term prices and then both to begin a rapid advance as the supply squeeze starts to be felt. full article: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article41156.html
Argentina tried to compensate Repsol in the last few days. Even if the offer was not good, it is some good news Argentina is somehow acknowledging the need for compensation. Hpefully they will reach an agreement soon and investments like this one of Andes will get revalued. not here yet, but watching this space
i think uranium will rebound and will probably get into URA again. I am just waiting for clearer signs of a turnaround. GL holders here
I hope I will be wrong, but as anticipated last week, I wonder if we are going to see a drop in the sp in the coming weeks. When reading YoY profits, investors will mainly notice the drop in profits we have had. I think, as a consequence of that, there will be a reprice of this share to the downside. I am not worried about that. To the contrary, if it ends up dropping in price significantly, I will step in to buy ahead of the interim results in September 2013, when I am hoping to start cashing in some profits from my investment here. In 2012, our gross profit was not too different from 2011, but there are 2 points that got on the way this time. -One off costs (legal, finance) that are totally understandable and expected -Provision of bad debts. Half of our profits went for that. Not a small amount and had that not happened some investors' reaction on Fri would have been different, with an extra £2.5 mill in profits. Although the management seems confident that they will recover most of that money, this issue of bad debts will probably need to be looked more closely in the future. As the management has said the future here is bright. Things I REALISTICALLY expect in 2013 interims: -A positive resolution to Rosbunker. It seems there are very strong options on the table. This could happen even before the interims. -Profit from Denmark instead the loss we made last year due to the inherited contracts; -and at least same level of profit from the other terminal operations as in 2012. -I expect a part of those bad debt provisions will be recovered and added to our profit account increasing our profit significantly. Based on the above, I remain confident this will hit the 30s after September's rns and this share offers a c. 50% potential trading profit from its current levels.
athough am not surprised with this initial market reaction, this 6.5% drop is on silly low volume seems to be done on literally 4 minor sells from people that haven't even had time to understand how these results affect the big picture of PAN. It looks like not even Westhouse securities understands this. As PAN says some minor investors " cant read past the YOY comparisons" If this touches the 200 DMA (c. 18.75 p) I may even ask for a loan to buy a few more shares in here....
I was also thinking that such tight range can't last much longer and would break out either way very soon depending on news / lack of news Pantastic, u are talking about two months. Is that the time u think we will get news on risbunker?I hope am wrong but if not clear indication of rosbunker is given I fear we may see a little drop here. On broader terms I still think this will hit 30 s this year, of course on the assumption our Russian affair is favourably sorted.