final 2012 and interim 201323 Jun 2013 21:50
I hope I will be wrong, but as anticipated last week, I wonder if we are going to see a drop in the sp in the coming weeks.
When reading YoY profits, investors will mainly notice the drop in profits we have had. I think, as a consequence of that, there will be a reprice of this share to the downside. I am not worried about that. To the contrary, if it ends up dropping in price significantly, I will step in to buy ahead of the interim results in September 2013, when I am hoping to start cashing in some profits from my investment here.
In 2012, our gross profit was not too different from 2011, but there are 2 points that got on the way this time.
-One off costs (legal, finance) that are totally understandable and expected
-Provision of bad debts. Half of our profits went for that. Not a small amount and had that not happened some investors' reaction on Fri would have been different, with an extra £2.5 mill in profits. Although the management seems confident that they will recover most of that money, this issue of bad debts will probably need to be looked more closely in the future.
As the management has said the future here is bright. Things I REALISTICALLY expect in 2013 interims:
-A positive resolution to Rosbunker. It seems there are very strong options on the table. This could happen even before the interims.
-Profit from Denmark instead the loss we made last year due to the inherited contracts;
-and at least same level of profit from the other terminal operations as in 2012.
-I expect a part of those bad debt provisions will be recovered and added to our profit account increasing our profit significantly.
Based on the above, I remain confident this will hit the 30s after September's rns and this share offers a c. 50% potential trading profit from its current levels.