Savannah Market Cap17 Dec 2017 09:58
Hi ZENGAS, fsheridan84, Agadem, Diversified, Juste, Olderandwiser, Delboi ,Parislse,Tidd83,TheBuffoon, MountTeide, and all the other contributors who’ve made this an enjoyable and informative board to read over the last year or so. Many thanks.
This is probably rather naïve (only second post in 9 years, lol) so apologies in advance but:
When trying to come up with a possible Savannah relist price for next week, could one not look at comparison market caps of similar stage companies for guidance? Comparing AIM listed Savannah with AIM listed Sound Energy for example? Sound Energy think they have a possible/potential/maybe 9 or 17 or even 31tcf of gas in Eastern Morocco according to internal best and worst case company estimates, plus more at Sidi Mokta in Western Morocco but no CPR yet as far as I am aware to confirm any of this. I believe discovered/proved at the moment is around .65tcf, unfortunately hundreds of miles from pipelines and years away from production. They own around 75% of their acreage in Eastern Morocco with Schlumberger owning the rest. Also, I think they have about £25-£27million in cash. Probably everyone knows the story.
Now I know Sound is a gas play and Savannah mainly oil, different countries, different tax regimes, Sound intend to sell and not produce etc and all the rest of it but they both similarly have very high hopes for their respective acreages. In comparison, Savannah have 100% of a possible/potential/maybe 1.7 billion barrels in Niger according to their last official CPR and hopefully upon relist about £100 million cash.
In the unlikely ‘blue sky’ event of Sound actually discovering all of their 31tcf of gas or Savannah actually discovering all of their 1.7billion barrels, I think it’s fair to say both companies market caps would probably run in to high multiples of where they are now.
So therefore at this early stage and very simplistically, if Sound is worth £528 million why not Savannah?
£528 million divided by say 800 million shares = 66p each ?
Oh………………….I nearly forgot and in addition:
Savannah will be producing around 20000 boepd. Will have 2P reserves of 99 million barrels, 2C of 34 million barrels, profits of around $88million a year . Will be paying a dividend and finally, will own part of a gas pipeline. That must make it worth even more than Sound, at least another penny a share!
67p per share?
Just had a quick look at Seplat too. £580million M/Cap with $400million of net debt. Double the production yes but no potential 1.7billion barrels as far as I can see.
So is 67p plus come Tuesday, or in the following few days, really out of the question?
One way or another, it will be interesting!