The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
into the financials of a small independent cinema.
https://www.independentcinemaoffice.org.uk/advice-support/how-to-start-a-cinema/the-economics-of-the-operation/
Gives great comfort to know even a small 2-3 screen cinema averages around 15-20% occupancy. This article basically confirms social distancing a non-issue, and the main concern for cinemas is having a strong box office slate. Which we know is coming.
Fully agree, and I think once covenants are hit this will kick the can down the road and confidence will return. Then provided 2021 is on track this will secure a return towards pre-covid levels which many of us are holding out for. Obviously a lot of uncertainty on how Covid plays out between now and then, but there's a lot to be optimistic about even if/when Covid disruption continues on a more local level.
IMO I think £1 is a sensible target between now and end of September (£1.20 would be 65% of Feb highs, which is where AMC are today). But we need to accept the higher caution around debt levels which has held us back. To push beyond here, the market will need assurance there won't be an equity raise in the medium term (12-18 months). We should have more confidence on this following September results, where we will get a clear plan of action from the board and hopefully backed up by some good data from September trading. Followed then by hitting covenants in December.
Opened flat. Underlines CINE has some catching up to do, and today’s rise isn’t just market/sector sentiment.
This will happen every day there are big gains. It’s natural and shouldn’t worry anyone. Same happened yesterday similar time.
Personally would hold, but FWIW a risk averse strategy could be to sell half your shares which would pretty much give you back your original investment. If it goes down you can top up, and if it rises you still continue to make gains.
Thanks @anewman18, but my point was kind of the opposite... in the end I regretted getting out because I missed out on reaping the benefits of a share price going up 200% in 3 weeks. All because I focused too much on the arbitrary paper “losses” from its low point. All that matters is where it’s headed.
Also I would beware anyone making a comparison to trading Cineworld, a mainstream FTSE 250 share, to a penny share which is just straight up gambling.
Back in 2008/9 when I was new to trading, I bought into a sinking Barclays share price at an avg of 117p. At one stage it crashed to just 50p.
I remember well the anxious days as I sat on a huge paper loss, and as soon as the recovery started I happily traded in my shares as soon as I broke even - relieved to have got out unscathed.
In the 3 weeks that followed the share price surged to £2.50 as investor confidence returned.
Today marks a day for me, and I’m sure many others, as we now sit at breakeven and small profit. I believe there are similar parallels to Cineworld now to Barclays some 11 years ago, and wanted to encourage those who have felt that anxiety in the last few weeks not to sell just out of fear of the past.
None of this is to say you definitely shouldn’t sell now - everyone has their own goals and appetite for risk. But don’t sell purely because you hated the feeling of paper losses.
If you are anxious, but believe in the long term for Cineworld my best advice would be to switch off looking at live prices. There will be many sharp spikes up and down which is par for the course for Cine at the moment (yesterday’s sharp reversal prime example). If you bring that anxiety into trading you may well make snap decisions you later regret.
Hope this helps.
GLA and as always DYOR.
Yes very true. A lot are focussing on the negative impacts of social distancing, but the reality is it is creating a better quality of experience in retail with less overcrowding. For cinemas, they are beginning to show it’s possible to match pre-Covid revenues by being smarter with staggered times etc, so that just as many blockbuster tickets can be sold by increasing the number of viewings.
Nice rally towards close in US & Canada
Cinemark +10%
AMC +4% (was losing 5% earlier)
Cineplex +4%
Bodes well for tomorrow AM
Jumping now. Will take anything above 50 today
Apologies if this has already been posted:
https://www.screendaily.com/news/uk-cinema-campaign-launches-as-reopening-gains-momentum/5152436.article
Just broke 47p finally
For sure - also clearly being tried to be pushed lower without success. Each level day now before reopening sets us up nicely.
Now we’re talking. Turning into an unexpectedly strong day
Spare a thought for the poor soul who just sold at 45p
Train is leaving the station.
Not sure I get your reference but hi there
Keep calm and believe in Cineworld people. We dipped over 5% on Friday and it came straight back to finish level. We’ll continue to have this volatility, but over the long haul this can only go one way.
Simple - market has priced in reopenings being reversed/2nd wave etc. So there are two scenarios by sept 3rd (tenet USA release):
-reopenings happen as planned and SP goes back to £1+ as risk goes away
-reopenings delayed a few weeks, in which case that’s already priced in and £1+ delayed til end of sept etc. We know that cineworld can survive 18MONTHS of lockdown so question is whether you want to get in at the lowest price it’ll ever be again now, or miss out.
The closer we get to Tenet release the more the risk goes away, and thus could spike any day. There will be too much money involved to lockdown again, and sales already happening thick & fast.