Member Info for Wigwammer

Thanks Riddler. Yes I noticed similar. The point that LSL were interested in the assets, Barclays/Jeffries had found a buyer for LSH, that the shares were 5 fold higher prior to CV onset in U.K., plus impending government assistance, is likely to give intelligent investors Increasing confidence about the recovery value here. ATB :)

Riddler - the same sort always arrive near the bottom, don’t they?! In a way we need to thank them - if they weren’t around selling their shares and encouraging others to do the same there would be no liquidity! ATB :)

Sain - I am sorry that you did insufficient due diligence on CWD and INTU prior to investing, and the market has marked your wealth down accordingly. It may well be that the due diligence undertaken by Riddler and myself, particularly with regard to the valuation, turns out to be prescient with regard to share price direction, but as mentioned, diversification is important (I genuinely hope you didn’t put all your eggs in here). CWD was a viable business prior to CV arriving - with a viable route to degear - and with the current help available we may see a strong recovery. Hope that helps :)

Sain - thank you for conceding that you made a loss here, and for previously conceding you crystallised a loss on INTU. The market is trying to tell you something - you are not an expert on either investment. I have a long track record on these boards of identifying leveraged recovery stocks, including POG, AAZ, SKP in recent years. I have had to deal with far more knowledgable and impressive detractors than you. Perhaps best for you to keep quiet for a while and let the adults speak :)

Riddler - in answer to your qn.. yes, sain was invested here. He purchased when the shares were many multiples of the price today and naively believed the LSH deal was in the bag..“ True but most investors including myself (stupidly) believed that the LSH deal had been done and dusted.” Sain - sounds like your horse has already fallen. ATB :)

Ha... should read holders, not folders! Though it may be telling us something :)

I’ve also Invested here riddler, at around 50p last week. Either it multiplies or disappears, but I believe the risk/return here is asymmetric in favour of folders. The trick with these positions is to spread your bets and accept that while some will recover and thrive, others will disappear. CWD was evidently seen as a viable business prior to CV - hence the lenders agreed new covenant terms. The government appears doggedly determined to ensure such viable businesses survive CV, and are ready when the recovery arrives. High risk, high return, but I think the balance is attractive for holders here. ATB

Simple hypothesis. Company XYZ bid £1.5bn for Trafford Centre in 2020. How many of the indecisive professional valuers are surprised to find that in year 2025, company XYZ report that they are “extremely pleased” with the investment they made? None I would guess. Which is why the chances of a leftfield black swan event here are considerably higher than the valuation suggests, IMO. Over any meaningful length of time, a purchaser with an interest in commercial property is likely to make attractive returns. Of course they will be dismissed as maverick and clueless to begin with, before the dust settles and the decision is respected.

Sain.. if you cannot see the shares rising (your words) then there is no risk to a short position. Your post makes no sense and it is quite right people point it out. If you have better investments to examine - go look at them rather than tediously trawling the net for negatives to post here. Atb

“The fact that I am not prepared to risk doesn't mean to say that I think they could go up..” that’s exactly what it means!

Yes, but you also have another view which you repeatedly avoid expressing. Why do you think the shares might go up?

So you wouldn’t go short because the effects of the shutdown may be short lived, and you risk losing meaningful money on a short position as the shares rise dramatically? Many thanks.

Sain.... you do not recommend shorting the stock. Too risky. Why is it risky?

I should add... even if you chop 25% off all the U.K. assets as you suggest (including trafford), there is still 25p per share nav here. I’m sure you’ll come back now and say the right figure might be 35% then, and so on and so on. It really doesn’t take a leap of imagination to see that Trafford might go for £1.5bn or thereabouts, or what the share price reaction might be on that day. A risky long, a much riskier short, imo.

Sain... I’m not going to argue against your shopping list of negatives - you will just keep repeating different parts of it. But if I was short here I would be nervous that I wake up one morning to find some random outfit has paid £1.5bn for trafford centre - a decent asset valued at 30%+ below peak. At sub 5p - option value - 100% downside here is probable but risk is assymetric - there is a smaller possibility that it multibags. My view is the optionality is cheap - but not gonna hang my hat on it. By the same token, at this price I don’t really get your daily dedication to the short arguments. ATB

I’ve increased my position here 5 fold at under 5p. Simple scenario. They sell Trafford Centre for £1.5bn. 10% discount to end of year valuation. Total assets drop to £5.6bn. Net debt £3.7bn. Take a 20% haircut to the other £4.5bn U.K. assets reduces equity to £946m. Equity per share 70p a share. Apply a 30% NAV discount gives target of 49p. 1100% upside. Anyone like the sound of that? :)

Depends when you bought :)

Why so much negativity here? We all knew the pubs were going to be closed. What we didn’t know is that the government was about to unleash billions and billions of liquidity into the sector.

There are quite a few naive punters who went short at the lower levels, and are now nervous about losing big time. Don’t let them have your shares on the cheap :)

Winnifrith frequently talks garbage. So he doesn’t like companies where the equity is dwarved by the debt? So I’m recent years he has missed out on Petropavlosk, AAZ, Enterprise Inns, Skyepharma etc etc... all 10+ bagged from positions where the market cap is a fraction of the debt... some of TW’s long positions have been a disaster yet he never mentions these - Stanley gibbons - dear oh dear...