George Frangeskides, Exec-Chair at Alba Mineral Resources, discusses grades at the Clogau Gold Mine. Watch the full video here.
With respect LOTM, in 30 years of private and professional investing I have never seen any trading approach that consistently earns positive returns over short periods. This includes years of quant based research, developing algorithms to backtest the alpha generated by just about every price/volume based approach imaginable. Running the strategies across decades of data and multiple markets. There simply isn’t a short term strategy out there that consistently gets a decent result. So when I hear about private investors believing they have the magic touch - I take it with a big pinch of salt. The “slam dunk buy” trade at 300p was made by another poster here who claimed to be a trading maestro, but who conveniently forgets what he has posted when it suits his self aggrandising narrative. The reason I emphasise the medium/long term is because that is where the proven sources of alpha are generated. But it requires patience.. ATB
Hmm. Obviously if the trade goes in your direction then it will help reduce losses. But the opposite is also true. So a “slam dunk buy” trade at 300p has an extremely damaging effect on your average price when the shares drop to 180p. That’s just a fact. Based on what I’ve read here in recent months, the overall performance of reported trades has been poor… Better to think medium-long term and stick with your guns - SYNT looks great risk/reward at this level… IMO
I think people need to take what is stated on these boards with a big pinch of salt anyway. For example there is one poster who stated Synthomer was a “slam dunk buy” at around 300p, in other words - worthy of a big one way punt upwards - who now claims it’s all a bit of fun now the shares have halved. It’s just a load of nonsense….. My own view is Synthomer is a £2.2bn+ revenue company with decent market positions, a history of earning attractive op margins, a credible medium term goal of doubling EBITDA to £300m+ - and if such an event becomes reality we could see the shares back at £8+ on a 3-5 year view. That’s a return worth waiting for IMO… ATB
I had a 73p average pre RI, so down around 40% there when it hit 43p. I took up full rights and paid for them by selling shares at around 48p old money. I’ve also averaged down under 200p. Guesstimate - if the shares get back to around 280p i will have broken even. How much am I currently underwater here… too much!
An average below 180p?! There can be no connection whatsoever between what joseywales posts here and what he actually does… He first bought at 84p old money (over 500p now). He then spoke positively all the way down to 60p (around 400p now). Then two days before the rights issue he stated that he didn’t think there was going to be a rights issue. Then post RI the shares fell to around 43p old money (around 290p now) and he claimed the shares were a “slam dunk buy” … Now at 205p he claims to have an average below 180p… lol… a legendary hindsight trader :)
I accept the scib data looks great, and that’s fantastic news for cancer research. But 1) even the next generation iscib patent expires in 2031, so by the time scib gets to market - perhaps 2027 - the owner will only have 4 years exclusivity. Surely that will impact deal terms? … 2) the unresectable melanoma market is $1.5bn, nice size but a fraction of what we hoped regarding moditope. The good news on scib does not offset the weaker news on moditope, though I guess the shares are now lower… thoughts?
Doldrums?! The value of my shares has more than doubled in 6 months! … it’s all about debt reduction, so if that continues and the market starts to value the company at a higher multiple of earnings as perceived risk diminishes, then 20p could be a base…
Party tonight on wigwammers liftboat…”These new contracts on improved day rates reflect positively in a market where GMS remains well positioned to capitalise on increasing regional demand for Liftboats".
Which covenants do you think they will miss, jadams? Be very odd for the lenders to agree to extending the credit terms if they suspect the covenants to be missed… short term voting machine, long term weighing machine… ATB
But the situation is tangibly different to two months ago, m1600. The debt has fallen by circa £250m and the lenders have extended their support to 2027. The odds of a favourable outcome for holders buying here has materially moved in their favour, not against them. I have been buying and getting my average down, and expect that on a three year view I will
be well rewarded. What the stock does over the next few weeks is anyone’s guess. In the short term the market is a voting machine, in the long term a weighing machine … ATB
With respect m1600, you very much do suggest something. You suggest that to justify a 150p price then then the company needs to be making 50m but is actually trading at a loss (pretty much word for word).. Therefore you conclude it is overvalued. But obviously there is a very good chance that the company achieves much improved profitability in future years - which is exactly what the company and analysts expect. You can’t price a stock off one years earnings data. I agree the debt is important, but at a market cap of around £300m and a revenue base of over £2bn, it is pretty clear the market is already pricing in a material debt load. The reduction in net debt post the RI should materially reduce the interest charges, to around £50m pa, covered 3 times by current EBITDA, and that’s in a depressed year. Not bad at all. Presumably this is why the lending banks agreed to extend the debt facilities to 2027. ATB
M1600 - cyclical companies regularly post negative earnings during weak points in the cycle. Are you suggesting that at these points the companies have zero value? The point is to identify what profits you think they will make across the cycle and discount that, not take a bad year and assume it goes on forever.
From memory, the “undisturbed” price in mid august (ie the price prior to the relentless pre RI fall) was about 80p per share, or a market cap around £376m. The market cap now is around £396m, so you are now paying the equivalent of 84p per share in old money… 80p versus 84p… BUT with the latter, you are now buying Synthomer with around £250m less net debt, and the support of its major lending institutions. I have bought again today. I have little idea where the shares will go over the next fortnight, but comfortable that the price I am paying should look good in the medium/long term (Financial health warning - I was pretty comfortable at 72p old money too!)… GLA