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Would be absolutely shocked if the read out later this year is not hugely positive (which is major news!!).

Stacks and stacks of evidence now point towards a positive outcome

A status given to certain drugs called orphan drugs, which show promise in the treatment, prevention, or diagnosis of orphan diseases.

PAh00,

Very important to highlight the language used by AS. if in any doubt about future funding or licencing based on actual data (clinical data obtained over a 1 year period) then it's illogical /unnatural to make such a comment. Reality would be that he'd bite the hand off of anyone willing to provide funding ....at any price.

Bein, as the sponsor it has always been Avactas choice whether to follow the SDMC recommendation. If the SDMC recommend a 5th it will be for good reason and Avacta will no doubt follow. I dont see funding a 5th being an issue. If the data is good avacta will either licence 3996 (I think this will occur Sept) or they will place for a small top up to ensure the 5th cohort is covered.

Bein, what if the SDMC recommended an increase to 300mg? I assume AVCT could decide to progress to 5th or must they now conclude at 4?

We can be confident that Biopsies are in place, with results known to both Avacta (decision maker) and SDMC (expert guidance), thus;

1. Does Avavta continue to fund the trial with poor data from biopsies?
2. Does the SDMC continue to recommend escalation with poor data from biopsies?

"We are very much encouraged by this recommendation from the SDMC to move onto the fourth dose cohort in our ongoing ALS-6000-101 Phase 1 dose escalation study. This very positive progress reflects the safety profile and tolerability demonstrated in patients enrolled in the study to date."

Not only would it be unethical to continue if it was not cleaving as it should, I really do not believe Avacta would continue to fund the trial without seeing positive data

MtRip,

So it was around 5 months between cohort 2 and cohort 3. Cohort 3 to cohort four has taken 2 months. So late Q3/early Q4 would land us around 6-8 weeks from now.

Agree with above timings and very hopeful that within the 6-8 weeks and prior to the read out, we shall see a deal on AVA3996.

Deal could be dependent on tolerability at 160mg.

TR1 next week then?

At very high rates you would think there is a risk of leakage (large amount of DOX activated surely not all makes its way to Tumor) but AS did say MTD may not be found.

He said something along the lines of ' MTD may not be reached..... And that would be very good wouldn't it'

Did I hear this correctly ? It would only be very good if he had confirmation of Dox in the tumor.

I wish I could have seen his body language when he made this remark. Listening only to the audio it was almost as if this remark was accompanied by a wink and a nod. Can anyone comment?

Rip.

In reason we to;

Surely knowing it’s safe and effective with low to zero DLTs would leave an open door for higher doses down the line?

I would agree. In the first instance though it's much easier (and safer) for Avacta to prove tolerability and efficacy at Dox rates rather than risk serious DLT at hugely increased rates. Perhaps current dose is already highly effective thus no clinical benefit to increase further..

farhills, Avacta are guided by the safety committee but as the sponsor they are not bound. It would however be strange to divert from the safety com recommendations, since they are the specialists.

Strategy not clear but can you imagine TR1 notifying that Tadeka had crossed the 3% threshold? It's a possibility.

50k holding reported mid July (could be higher now if Tadeka have been accumulating) is really puzzling..

At the absolute worst this confirms that Tadeka have a strong interest in Avacta (which we always speculated would be the case) but why 50K?

It could easily be 500k now and rising but if still only 50k then very strange. A 40$b enterprise does not make 50k punts so there is either an active accumulation under way or this 50k is part of a more complex deal between the 2 parties...

Either way it's hugely positive.

....

Takeda always looked like the most likely source of future funding via 3996 license deal. Now we know they recently acquired Avct stock but why? Very exciting times.

Surprised at the lack of discussion on this topic.

I think the % of holders / shares prepared to be sold below 200p is extremely low. The number of new buyers that will speculate based on a northward movement will be strong, thus I think a move at this point could be rapid.

I think we could see a big move today and sustained rise from now until read out. It's been a long wait but patience is about to reward

The Patent was filed by BACH on 24th March 2022...

Is it a coincidence that around this date AVCT started its huge recovery rise from 50p<138p???

When did the patent filing become public knowledge?