For what it's worth, my 7.25p's thoughts20 Dec 2022 20:59
It's been quite a while since I have posted here, principally for the reason that there is very little to say. As ever, the share price has followed the usual pattern, that is rising to results day then the selling starts. I fully expect a number of replies criticising me for my views but as a shareholder for the past six years and a substantial holding of 2.4 million shares at an average of 5.4p I will now attempt to explain why my views on the company have changed in the past 18 months.
Initially, I was a very ardent supporter of Brian and fully supported the company's plan in scaling up. The past 18 months however show a pattern of errors on Brian's judgement which have seen the Sergi and Capela potash projects relinquished, the limestone project of which nothing has been heard of for 18 months. We then come to the Miriri project which was abandoned after due diligence, the astonishing point being the due diligence was carried out AFTER the purchase. We apparently have a new storage shed which Brian has announced in interviews, although I would have expected shareholders were entitled to an RNS and photos at the least.
So, where does this leave the company ? Well fortunately we have the Arapua site which continues to scale up although whether it can ever attain an annual production of 300kt remains to be seen. I see us now as very much a niche company and extremely unlikely to challenge the likes of Verde and others in the future. Brian's recent purchasing history is unlikely to see institutional investors rushing to us and we now have Verde opening a fourth plant next year to take them to 2.5m tons capacity. To put it into context, we will be selling 10% of Verde's sales next year.
My hope is we see the usual rise into the new year and the bulls continue to dream of cash generating. I will be happy to see my stake sold at a price of 15p, if it goes higher then congratulations to those of you who continue to hold. I will be happy with a profit of 230k You may regard my post as negative, however I just can't see the company growing year by year. They are unable to raise the huge amounts of money required to compete with the larger potash companies and will forever be a niche company, albeit a decent one. I would like to think there is the possibility of being acquired but that seems unlikely as any interested company would surely have made their moves at the current share price.
A Merry Christmas to all Harvest shareholders. Sadly, I fear it will be my last on here.