Member Info for whimax

Lol. And some have been saying Onshore is hardly worth the bother!! 😂

I think that’s possible, certainly by COB tomorrow.

I wonder if those large trades yesterday have removed another slight blockage. Time will tell.

Nice. A 4.7m & a 4m 👍

This is the thing Ianfer.

In reality, Analysts are probably the most qualified to place a valuation on any business, and, if they’ve done their DD and homework correctly, should be able to value a business using industry standards, risk and asset value. Whether they are ultimately correct or not, depends on whether the company delivers on its objectives. What an analyst can’t do is control the market or decide who sells or buys shares.

What investors tend to do, is base their “I’d be happy with a a buy out at XXp per share” on the current share price. If we were valued correctly at the moment, I suspect nobody would be happy with a 30p offer. Just because we are massively under valued by the market, doesn’t mean the analysts are wrong.

I’d go as far as to say, that assuming all goes to plan over the next few months, Malcy will probably be closest with his guesstimate.

Are people just picking numbers out of hat here, or is this 25-30p actually based on any kind of calculation, either post On Shore and/or AE?

I doubt we’ll see a takeover here, in the short to medium term at least.

The share price in the 6 months preceding the Farm Out announcement was between 14p and 18p (roughly) and AP confirmed at the conference call, following the Farm Out, that the offer made for the company was dismissed out of hand and not high enough.

I’m assuming that offer was at least slightly higher (north of 25p) than the highest price of 18p during that period.

I doubt anyone would make an offer now, ahead of the 3 drills in the next 3-4 months, and I very much doubt AP would entertain one.

We don’t think that. Well I don’t anyway.

There were 2 sellers imo. The first one started immediately after the Farm In RNS, and the second one was Covalis, possibly as a result of the first.

I thought that was clear.

BDC

“then why are they opting to sell shares which cost them nothing to hold over the CFD that have a high cost to hold?”

Shares cost nothing to hold, but they cost the full value to purchase and therefore free up the most cash when sold (as you say). If you have a large (Long) leveraged CFD that’s continually falling you have to keep adding to your leverage in order to prevent the provider closing it out for you at a loss. If it’s under water, you are still liable for the debt/loss after it’s closed.

You appear to be flip flopping between Covalis being Long or Short on a CFD to suite whatever argument you are trying to counter at any given time.

Unfortunately we’re at the mercy of SDX and their drill.

On the plus side, the timeline is “squeezed” now between the start of our on Shore drilling (now early May hopefully) and AE possibly in July. The next 3 or 4 months will certainly be busy and interesting.

Presumably, they wouldn’t be “selling” their CFD if it was a Short Position, they’d be Buying it.

How does this fit with your theory that they were “selling shares” to enhance their “Short CFD”?

None imo, Surety.

Askar (and probably some others) bought them all a few weeks ago.

*holding most..

30-50p seems a bit lowball to me.

Nobody going to make a bid till after Onshore & AE are drilled, by which time Chariot will be most, if not all the aces imo.

TBF, getting someone to ‘declare’ at all on AIM is a bonus. 2 weeks ain’t bad imo.

Covalis are the ones that sold imo, and we’ve still heard a peep from them.

So Askar in for another 18m shares from the Covalis sale a couple of weeks ago.

Shows huge confidence imo.

I agree about the PR Gooner. They could and should have sold the story better, but the problem with setting timelines, is that circumstances outwith the control of the company can negatively impact them, hence why they said “around the end of Q1” for onshore. They will have expected to have the rig by now, but have no control over SDX’s drill timeline and are at their mercy.

As far as Rig Mobilisation being “priced in”, that event may or may not positively impact the share price, but I’d go as far as to say that as things stand, pretty much Nothing at all is priced in here. Being “priced in” (or not) is not the same as the Market ignoring news, which is what has happened thus far imo.

Ianfer.

The Market appears to not even be aware that Chariot exists, never mind the fact that they will commence a 2 well drill in the next week or 2. That, imo is why the rerate hasn’t already started.

As I’ve said several times on here already, this scenario ISN’T unique to Chariot.. The other day I asked for examples of AIM listed companies that anyone felt were being valued correctly by the market, and that had had success (of any description) reflected in the Share Price. Aside from 1 ‘tongue in cheek’ response, nobody came up with one. The market will wake up eventually, but AIM is so broken, it appears that Chariot are going to have actually make a video of gas coming out the ground, in order for them to be believed. When that happens tho, we won’t be able to buy at these prices.

People need to get away from the idea that this is specific to Chariot tho, it’s isn’t.

🥱

In that case MrPLO, you’d be as well selling here and coming back in July when AE is being drilled.

The upside potential of the Onshore drills, both with and without success in the deeper reservoir have been explained on here many times, so no point in going back over those, but imo even worst case will provide good to very good cash flow that will see a significant rerate.

If you don’t believe that to be the case and/or see the Onshore Drills or Funding as a risk, I suggest O & G maybe isn’t your bag, or that you’d be happier buying into ENOG rather than CHAR.

Anyway, I’ll leave it there, as it’s probably best to just let the Drill Bit do the talking now.

GL.

P.s. I apologise sincerely that the share price didn’t react the way we all hoped after the distressed seller (who, incidentally, as I stated on several occasions, was there) was cleared. My bad 🙏

Not sure what your point/question is MrPLO?

Are you asking if “Thee” Seller has cleared? Yes, IMO he has.

Does that mean everyone suddenly wants to buy? I’m not sure, but Buys outweighed Sells today and the SP dropped, so you tell me.

A catalyst is needed. It might be Rig Mobilisation, but that’s not within Chariots control unfortunately.

This is a screaming buy imo, but folks won’t get it till it’s too late.