TUI Longer Term1 Apr 2023 12:44
Firstly thanks to Hexam for all the good comments and helpful calculations regarding the RI. There is going to be quite a lot of short term volatility but in the longer term TUI look to be in quite a good place. If you read the FT article last weekend they pointed out the sizeable dilution of Mordashovs holding from 30.1% to 10.9% which has inbuilt advantages for shareholders and removes the dominant shareholder. When the German Government debt has been repaid using the RI proceeds the remaining debt should be quite manageable. At the moment the travel bookings are holding up both in terms of volume and higher prices and the 30/9/2023 year end should show a substantial improvement over last year - £700m profit ? If that happens the SP should start to rebound especially as the group should be debt free within 18months - 2 years. So what I am saying is that maybe we all need to be a little bit patient - the worlds largest travel group with annual T/O approaching £20B is going to be worth a lot more than £3-4 billion in the not too distant future. I don't think the shareholders are being shafted by the RI - rather the opposite - I think management are doing all the right things and so does the FT who said it looked ' a smart move '.