Member Info for WG818

Just to put this notion that the sidetrack isn’t needed to bed!

From page 26 of the CPR

Table 3-1 summarises the scope of the planning applications that will be submitted to
Lincolnshire County Council required to restart, then ramp-up, production to 10 MMSCFD.
Initially 4 to 5 MMSCFD of gas and liquids produced from two existing wells (SF2, SF4) will be
processed at a new plant on site to meet the specifications for the National Grid Gas system to
supply both domestic and industrial consumers.

https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Reserves-Resources-Valuation-Report-Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Assets-Effective-Date-28th-February-2020-Report-Date-4th-March-2020.pdf

Would you care to Apologise Cudd?

As some are suggesting porkies have been told. I attach the actual official OGA gas production figures for Saltfleetby supplied by the operators to the OGA at the time. I can only think OIL when preparing the CPR were given the wrong information as they make it clear all the information they based the report on was supplied by Angus.

the figures in 2017 were:

Jan 4.5454
Feb 5.0778
Mar 4.3939
Apr 3.4632
May 4.8587
Jun 1.5256
Jul 2.9733
Aug 0.5605
Sep 0.0000
Oct 0.0000
Nov 1.1948
Dec 0.4443

The wells didn’t get anywhere near 6.5mmscf all year! AS I said earlier the average in 2016 was 5.2 mmscf


https://data-ogauthority.opendata.arcgis.com/pages/production

Scroll down to the black page with the UK map zoom in on Saltfleetby and all the production figures are available.

No James. He is telling everyone that they don’t need to sidetrack. They quite obviously do! And yes it may possibly peak at around 6.00 mmscf on turn on…but it cwill drop off within hours as all the documentation tells us. It could also require work overs as it states in the Aecom document.

Some are quite obviously court in the now infamous Lobster pot and are trying to pull the wool over anyone daft enough’s eyes who would believe them to get out of it!

DoneK
I suggest you take it up with Angus then! The Sidetrack is there policy.
Again it’s Angus not me who is Quoting 5 mmscf from the Two wells.

Even Angus have addressed this (sort of) in the Q&A

The OGA figures for recorded output are know where near that.......Or those given by Angus in the investor presentation.
The CPR also quite clearly gives a 5mmsct figure for production before the sidetrack in its P10.P50 & P90 figures. The latest Aecom document also says they hope for 5mmscf.

From THE OGA Figures

The 2016 figures work out at around 5.2 MMSCF
The 2017 (the last year it produced was around 2.4 MMSCF

All perfectly verifiable from the links below.

https://data-ogauthority.opendata.arcgis.com/pages/production

https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Reserves-Resources-Valuation-Report-Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Assets-Effective-Date-28th-February-2020-Report-Date-4th-March-2020.pdf

https://consult.environment-agency.gov.uk/psc/ln11-7dj-angus-energy-weald-basin-no-3-limited/supporting_documents/NonTech%20Summary.pdf

I must ask how your grammar seems to have improved from the Weekend. Its gone from Pigeon English to almost unreadable.....Strange?

DoneK

Thanks for actually replying even if you are trying to put words into my mouth!

Q .Angus's assets are worthless.
A. Brockham Yes, Balcombe Probably, Lidsey Probably, Saltfleetby wont be worthless but completely depends on the sidetrack for Angus.

Q. Angus's assets are now under a legal charge for the SFB loan.
A. Yes. All recorded at companies house. But you forgot the Knowe CLN for £1.4 M also has a charge!

Q. SFB is worthless as the previous producer accounts show losses.
A. See above

Q. by Feb 2022 SFB will not be producing, and under Angs it will most likely never produce and sell any Gas.
A. No I don’t think they will be producing in Feb! The companies own in house guidelines gives a 2 month timeframe after delivery for hook up and compliance. Then you have the EA issue from this week to be resolved(that could still be ongoing by then) and finally the sidetrack is looking ever more likely to be started in March as previously advised. That’s a 16 week program and they wont be able to produce while its underway. Even if they start this year the works and equipment are in the location that the new plant is going on so that will delay it anyway!

Q.
Knowe properties loan won’t be paid back, nor will the SFB loan, therefore these assets (that are worthless) will be taken back as the loans are defaulted.
Angus shares will be and are essentially worthless.

A I didn’t say that. They have no income and the equipment purchases, sidetrack cost, cash burn, and loan payments and interest add up to far more than the money showing (or not in this case) in the accounts. They are going to need to raise it somehow. If they can’t what happens then?


Finally “alternatively we can go by the plans outlined by the Company itself” The companies own plans centre around the sidetrack! They hope that SF2 and SF4 will produce 5 mmscf (All in the CPR and recent EA presentation) that’s half the CPR figure and they have a 15% a year drop off rate. That’s not enough to pay the loan.

Ultimately, as you put it the sidetrack needs to be prolific on the 1st attempt.......The last 9 attempts failed. ....This is a gamble now not an investment.

HITS

Think that may have been for the UKOG BB?

It does go to show the reality at Lidsey.
Who in their right mind would want a farm-In given the tiny size and huge costs involved?

Nomlungu

I’m afraid it’s worse than that. The accounts show owed £1.576 million trade and other payables. So they actually circa £250k in debt.

The £87k VATrecoverable tells you all you need to know.
And £522 k from farmees ? They only have Brockham Capital Ltd and terrain energy left! Neither in great shape looking at CH accounts

I’m afraid you’re showing your ignorance here. Have a look at the attached for a guide to timescales. Its still not been decided!

https://consult.environment-agency.gov.uk/psc/rh3-7au-angus-energy-weald-basin-no-3-limited/

Not really Ocelot. They have done another “Angus” this should have been submitted last year. Both the EA applications currently in play for Angus the SF7 flare permissions and the Brockham water injection (still to be decided) took longer than a year. This went in in April by the looks of the Aecom document.

We can expect a fall tomorrow then! The Brockham EA permit has taken a year!

https://drillordrop.com/2021/09/09/angus-energy-seeks-consent-for-gas-refining-at-saltfleetby/

As usual you’re wrong.
The RNS says indicated 24 week lead time. The second compressor package is due in February.
From the companies own in house timeline they add another 2 months from that for commissioning and regulatory approval. Then in all likelihood the 16 week sidetrack will start in March.
Don’t they have a £1.4m CLN and the first £3.8 million of the loan to pay around then?

Have a read of the CPR. Massive caveat on the first page. The report is based solely on information provided by Angus!

Of course they have!! And they won’t lose! They have charges on all SEL and Angus,s assets! And Knowe have first dibs in April if they fail to pay the £1.4 m.

I’m sure the fact that forum are after AAOGs tax Break and the “Captain America” Angus tax shield GL spoke of won’t have crossed their minds!!

They will also be expecting the sidetrack to be drilled!! It’s all in the RNS releases.

Seems our ha hum“new posters” are as clueless as some resident ones!?!?

I feel sorry for Roy!

Don k
The fact “you” or any bulls don’t respond with counter points, or anything other than ridiculous “boiler room” accusations is cause for concern for any prospective investor don’t you think?

Did the last 9 attempts fail?
Do you think they need the sidetrack?
What do the accounts tell you Cash burn is?
How are they going to pay the CLN?

Any answer to any questions will do!!….from any of you!

HITS
The trouble they have is that they still need £2.5 M (according to all available produced accounts) a year to stand still! They aren’t and won’t be producing anything anytime soon. In fact the AEWB3 updated accounts filled yesterday with the missing notes makes it clear that disposing of the waste cost £20k more than the oil that was produced!

You then have the £1.4 million CLN that needs paying in April. The £12 million is strictly for Salt from my understanding. How are they intending to pay this?
Massive dilution coming here whatever happens!

HITS
We know what the 2 production wells are likely to produce when turned back on. Likely around 6mmscf due to pressure buildup if you believe the companies figures not those provided on the OGA website. That will then reduce rapidly . The company themselves state that the drop of rate is 15%. That’s only around half the CPR figure? How with the drop off rate can they possibly pay the £3.8 million a year amortised loan of after six months let alone year 3 or 4 on those figures?

RT03
The answer is yes. According to Angus the 2 producing wells last produced around 5.2 mmscf before being abandoned due to the closure of Saltfleetby. The OGA figures suggest that figure was correct in 2016, however that dropped to around 2.4 in 2017. The company and Wingas FDP suggest a 15% drop of a year.
The CPR is based on 10 mmscf at a a average over the 4 years at a price close to the 43p hedge.

I think think some think they can turn it on and produce what they like. A couple of problems apart from the fact that it won’t as explained above. They are restricted by the processing plant and the reduced to 4 inch pipeline to 10 mmscf max.
Wingas also suggest 10% down time for pressure buildup and maintain so the CPR seems to be 10% out.

Just for clarity the last 9 attempts at sidetracks at Saltfleetby have failed. The last semi successful attempt from SF7 the same well flowed at 2.4 mmscf before failing after hock up.

It’s all about the sidetrack… nothing else matters!

Ocelot
Following on from my post yesterday.
Obviously water re-injection is a major problem at any oil and gas site as confirmed by Mr Hollis on last summer’s CC.
At £49 a barrel disposal cost you have to wonder why they aren’t considering using one of the abandoned wells at Saltfleetby? They have a big water disposal problem there as well.
Hard to imagine a farm in at Lidsey either until they where to get permission for that injector well they speak of in the presentation there. About a year for a EA consultation by the looks of it. And far from certain they would even get it!

Angus themselves have said that the permissions are the most important part of any farm in!

Seems to me those leases and licences expiery dates are closer than some think?