RE: To whom BS is going to sell6 May 2024 06:58
Golones: The problem I foresee with the Beetaloo is that we are going to be stuck in a holding pattern before we will receive an offer many of us will find acceptable. It's a bit of the 'cart before the horse' issue. Tamboran's production date is early 2026 - that is soon after the first two pilot wells are to be drilled. That gas will be going into the Amadeus pipeline and if memory serves me well, Tamboran has contracted a 40 mmcf/d take or pay contract with the pipeline. Doing an AI search on Amadeus Pipeline indicates that currently there is no excess capacity - I assume 'no excess capacity' allows for the contracted 40 mmcf/d but the question is just how much excess capacity above the 40 mmcf/d might there be? The pipeline's total capacity is only about 165 - 175 mmcf/d which isn't that large. The point I am getting at is that Tamboran will likely be holding up on drilling the SS5H, SS6H, SS7H wells. The SS4H will likely be drilled sometime in 2026 to backfill Tamboran's 40 mmcf/d contract as there will be a typical Marcellus decline curve over the first 6-8 months of these first two wells. Tamboran doesn't have the funds available nor the inclination to punch holes in the ground without a market for its production. Tamboran is correctly informing the market of first production in 2026, but in typical Tamboran fashion, they fail to tell the market the 'rest of the story'.
With all this said, any 2025/2026 offers for Falcon will be based on the next two-three wells and not the full 6 well pilot program. That's not saying an offer can't come at any time, but IMO, the big guys are not buying into something that is not well proven - they would rather pay-up when the field is better proven/understood.
From my understanding, the new APA proposed pipeline hasn't even begun permitting. Building a large enough capacity line to handle even the next 10 years production is going to be a major project and cost billions of dollars. We could be looking at 2027 - 2028 before that might be completed.
Bottom line is that to receive the price many of us want, we might be looking at a lot more patience - what's three more years at this point - assuming I'm still around :^) IMO, Falcon owes it to its stockholders to shoot straight on the current timeline on a proposed sale. No one can predict with certainty when a legit offer might be received, but I believe if we stockholders might potentially be looking at 2027 or 2028 before a sale, then the stockholders need to understand this as a possibility.
GLA