Member Info for WetWater

Northern: The stated 'benchmark' for the SS-2H and SS3-H begin at a normalized rate of about 19 mmcf/d. I believe this rate is on the low side as Tamboran didn't want to have a miss and disappoint the market. At one enthusiastic moment, Riddle mentioned a 20+mmcf/d for these two wells. I suspect we will see an improved rate over the SS-1H normalized rate, so I would 'guess' the whisper number is about 21 mmcf/d. What the industry will be more interested in seeing is the IP60 and IP90 rates. These Velkerri B wells seem to be holding up much better than many wells in the states which is a better metric for measurement/success than the initial IP rate. Not an engineer but that's my take.

BCNatgas: I don't believe BtoB is the delusional one here. Oleo, and it sounds like yourself, are the ones who refuse to see/understand Falcon's positioning in the Beetaloo and what POQ has done and is currently doing to advance the company's eventual sell - there is a lot of truth in BtoB's posts concerning the financial aligning and planning of Falcon's CEO than many are aware. POQ has given us snippets and potential paths of Falcon - Philip is running the traps in an attempt to get us shareholders the best possible deal.

A couple of weeks ago, Philip was at the NAPE conference in Houston. This is a show that exist for petroleum networking and the presentation of business opportunities and investments. Though I wasn't told whom Philip was meeting with, I know there were some financial institutions, family office representatives, and I expect some of Sheffield's group attending this conference. Furthermore, I know he made stops in Dallas, Toronto and possibly Austin while here in the states. There are things going on behind the curtain that our CEO isn't free to divulge.

As to investing in the Nasdaq Index, why are you bothering to hang around us poor folk here on this board. As smart as you seem to be I figured you would be on sailing around the world on your yacht - maybe hindsight is not quite as profitable as you seem to imply.

Though I doubt you hold any position in Falcon, good luck in your other profitable investments.

Oleo: Thanks for the link. IMO, Alex Underwood comes across as a very capable manager of Empire. I would have to agree with him that with acreage valued at $40 - $60 /acre there is a lot of running room for future evaluations as they prove up commerciality of the Beetaloo.

Longknife: I'm not an engineer so take this with a grain of salt. You are correct that Liberty is a world class fracking company - while they are known to perform top of the class frack jobs, they do not design the frack job - that is the job of either an engineering company or Tamboran's engineers. IMO, Riddle, as he has done in the past, has once again tried to aggressively push the boundaries by juicing the injection rates with Liberty's 80,000hp. I highly suspect the 'swelling' issue was directly related to pushing too hard to get the best possible frack job. Tamboran had good results in fracking the SS-2H well so why not replicate the past job - why continue to push the envelope. I don't know this for a fact, but I suspect Liberty gave council to Riddle's people not to push too hard - if Riddle's claim is true that this is a common issue in a shale well then, he should have known better than to overpressure the casing creating this month delay at a cost of (?) million dollars. I don't believe this swelling issue just happens out of the blue - it is a result of aggressive pressures issues - another forced error by Riddle and company. Once again - not an engineer so maybe someone can correct me.

Oleo: If it's not your first rodeo, then why do you find it so hard to realize that Falcon is not the operator of this well. Wouldn't you think it might make for a bad JV partner/relationship for Falcon to be commenting on the operations of the operator of the well. Tamboran, as operator is the one to be reporting on its progress and most recently its latest failure. This is the third major snafu in a row for Riddle - I suspect Sheffield is getting pretty fed up with this pompous asse as he cost Falcon, Tamboran stockholders, and Bryan Sheffield millions of dollars. Not only dollars but Sheffield is likely not happy with Riddle continually screwing up and by association giving him a black eye in the industry.

I was hoping for the SS-2H and SS 3-H wells to be a huge success for Tamboran and the Beetaloo. I had actually bought some Tamboran stock thinking they might pull off these two wells with good flow results by the end of April. As typical for Riddle, the SS-2H was bungled and now the SS-3H has been held up at a cost of millions of dollars. Riddle glossed this over saying it was typical issue for a shale well - I call bs on that comment. He further stated the casing issue could be fixed for about .5 million net to Tamboran - I suspect that's going to be a very low estimate as now he has Liberty's frack fleet sitting idly on the clock for the next month or so waiting for the liner to be located/delivered/cemented. This screw-up is going to make it even harder for Tamboran to raise funds - needless to say I bailed on my Tamboran stock.

Did I ever tell you that Philip did us all a huge favor by reducing Falcon's interest to 5% on these two wells :^) ! I'm not rooting against Tamboran on these pilot wells - Falcon needs these wells to be huge successes, but as Philip was smart enough to do, I'm going to stand clear of Tamboran for the balance of this year as I think they are going to have to do some serious farm-downs to raise funds. Actually, that could be good for the Beetaloo if Tamboran farms-down to a major operator and we get large/well financed company involved in the Beetaloo.

You seem to be a big Riddle supporter - I truly wish you good luck as that will reflect back into Falcon's position.

Speaking of building momentum, I am hearing that the checkerboards for the Beetaloo have been defined. IMO, this means that after these next two current wells are IPd, Tamboran could move forward with a farm-down, raising capital for the remaining 4 pilot wells scheduled for this year. If Tamboran farms-down to a major operator such as Shell or Inpex, that would give a huge boost to the legitimacy of the Beetaloo -resulting in a significant jump in acreage value and therefor Falcon share price.

I believe after these current two wells are IPd, at what I suspect will be a normalized rate of 20+mmscf/d or better, Falcon will once again find itself in the catbird's seat, just watching and waiting for others to prove up this acreage while waiting for the perfect offer to materialize. GLA

I got a confirmation today that Jeff Stiller with Chuck Yates, is releasing a high quality video this Saturday which promotes the Beetaloo and its natural gas development. Jeff filmed much of this footage while in the Beetaloo interviewing B Sheffield. It should be interesting to those of us on this board.

Somm: I am thinking each of the two well's flow rates will be released together. As currently planned, there is to be a six-week soaking period on these wells before they are flow tested. After soaking, the wells will be opened up at approximately the same time making me think the news will be released at one time. Just my guess! Even if separately released there would only be a couple of weeks in between and IMO the first well's normalized rate will be much the same as the second well. I'm still on record as looking for a 20+ mmcf/d IP rate - I think Tamboran's guidance of 18+mmcf/d is just putting out a conservative rate so as not to disappoint the market.

Newtofo: And why do you even bother to follow this Fitz guy? I don't think I'm going to go out of my way to follow him on Hot Copper based on his points, I certainly wouldn't put any creedence in what he is spouting off about. If he ever says anything worthwhile, let me know. It always amazes me how these boards attract the smartest, most technical savvy people - smarter than even those in the industry.

This guy doesn't even seem to comprehend that what carries the value ($$$) of this play boils down to shale acreage and location. To say Sheffield and Tamboran's acreage is worth more than Falcon's is a crazy statement - especially since it is all undivided interest! You and I both know Falcon is not planning to get into the capital raising game - Falcon is looking for a buyer at the right price - dollars to doughnuts that Falcon will not be around in 2-3 years that he quotes. Also, regarding JVs, with what we currently know of Sheffield and Riddle's relationship, Sheffield is not getting any deeper in bed with Joel unless he buys control of Tamboran and turns it into his own operating company. Even at that, I suspect Sheffield would want 100% control of his acreage which, IMO, could easily be accomplished by buying out Falcon for stock which could be very attractive deal for both parties. Lastly, I don't see Falcon doing any farmouts - Falcon's business model is to sell at the highest possible price - at 0% PI we can sit on the sidelines an awfully long time until the right buyer comes calling.

Interesting 20-minute video for anyone interested in knowing more about pipeline construction, transportation and LNG production/shipping.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuMxQzX0uso&ab_channel=WendoverProductions

Oleo: Regarding the Hart Energy post before it 'faded out' behind the paywall - someone was getting carried away with the projected FSDA formation. Instead of just incorporating the DSU's surrounding the pilot program wells they decided, what the heck. let's just tease the public that it could entail UP TO the whole 4.52 million acres. It probably really caught the eye of Bryan Sheffield as the visible part of the article cut Sheffield out of the FSDA in the to be formed Tamboran/Falcon JV :^)

Oleo: Everyone to their own opinion. Yours is that FOG dwindles - Mine is that as these four wells are drilled there will be more interest created in the Beetaloo's acreage. Acreage evaluation will directly influence FOG's share price. Will it be straight-up - don't know but you're not going to see the depressed year-end tax loss selling we recently went through. The only thing good I can say about that painful period is I did pick up a good number of US $.05 cent shares!

I need to put a reminder in my calendar to revisit your post at the completion/IP-30 of these four wells - Will love to be able to tell you "I told you so" :^) With that I still hope you and all a profitable 2025.

Otd2000: Yep - we have been around forever but then not as long as some others on this board. IN MY OPINION, I don't see much possibility of any sell after these two current wells. Though these are a good start I would think any serious potential buyer would want to see the other 4 pilot wells being drilled this year. Also, we are still in need of pipeline capacity above the 40 mmcf/d line for these pilot wells - Hopefully with these first two wells, APA may show some interest in looking at permitting land for a larger pipeline which would still be few years away. I think someone will make a move on Falcon prior to that larger pipeline capacity being constructed but any potential company is wanting assurances it will go forward before making any huge commitment.

My predictions on pricing have been consistently wrong the last 14 years so take this for what it's worth - I am looking for about US $.20 - .25 a share after these current two wells are IP-30d for 20+ mmcf/d. I am hoping to see our pricing move towards the US $.70 - 75 range after these next 4 wells prove themselves. As I have been on record over the last couple of years - my goal is to see US $1.00 as a buyout price in early 2026. If Falcon is still around towards the end of 2026, then I would be hopeful of US $1.30 - 1.50. These are just my WAGs which are no better than anyone else's - just something fun for me to think about as this project goes forward.

As far as your dump and pump comment, please see my previous post to Longknife - The Beetaloo is now developing and proving up acreage is the name of the game for Tamboran, Daly Waters or any future operator. As long as this acreage lives up to its promise, then I believe you will see steadily up trending acreage prices subject of course to market pressures. I truly suspect the Beetaloo has rounded the corner for all parties involved. Good Luck!

Longknife: I'm thinking we are talking about two different 10% figures. My 10% concerns the NRI of the original 4 pilot program wells - as mentioned, I'm thinking the 10% NRI will apply to the whole FSDA though I'm not sure that would be true if Falcon goes to 0% PI. I think you are saying that Falcon's PI interest in the total FSDA is a maximum of 10%? Maybe this is a question for Philip, but IMO, if Falcon goes 0% on these next 4 wells which will help define the future FSDA acreage then logically Falcon's available PI interest would be reduced? We don't know the specifics on how a FSDA would be defined so I don't think either of us can answer that question. From Falcon's NR, it sounded to me that Falcon has no interest in participating in the next 4 wells nor the FSDA. I don't believe Philip wants to commit himself to a large capital raising campaign (spelled dilution) by taking 5% - 10% PI in any DSU or resultant FSDA even if it's available. IMO, the goal of Falcon is to let the other guys prove up our acreage and then when the right offer presents itself put Falcon up for bid and with luck 2-3 bidders would help us gain maximum value for our acreage - either all or partial blocks.

The difference between the run ups/downs of Falcon's share price this time around, is prior to this time, bidders were speculating on relative unknowns - now as these pilot wells prove themselves, Beetaloo acreage will go up in value and with that solid increase in value, Falcon's share price will escalate. This is why Philip never wanted to promote Falcon's stock price in the past - sure, he could run it up but then with no news it would sink back down and then he would have even more upset stockholders. With good news, the retail price of Falcon will go up even though that is not the boards main target - they are looking for institutional investors or oil companies to bid our price up. We'll get there in time, let's just let the process play out.

Longknife: Not to get into the fray but I want to clarify one point as I understand it. You posted "And FOG did not lower its participation in this area to 10pct, it's a possible MAX of 10pct." As I understand it, since Falcon reduced its 22.5% PI down to 5% PI on the S2-2H well, it is now limited to a max of 5% PI on the remaining wells. The 10% I quoted is the NRI (net revenue interest) in these S2-2H and S2-4H pilot wells. I am thinking that Falcon still retains its 10% NRI in the remaining 4 wells to be drilled this year though someone may correct me on this as Falcon has now reduced its interest in these next 4 wells to 0%.

You might reconsider you statement of no sustained increase in share price as we are already beginning to see some anticipation of results in the current share price increase of 50% - will this hold? I'm thinking it will not only sustain itself but should build as we get closer to releasing the IP-30 flow rates. Though not in your comments, I will also predict that the flow rate on these next wells will have a normalized rate of 20+ mmcf/day. I was told by someone who is in a good position to know, that in time as the frack design improves as these wells are drilled, that 20 mmcf/d will be a low number. Time will tell on the flowrates and the price. As frackme said, this is the stock we want to be in at this time as we have lots of relatively derisked upside potential. Best to you and all as we shall all benefit from this investment - the question among us is the bottom line - just how big will be our reward and how much time will this take? I think I was saying this about 14 years ago!!

Oleo: I would think you should be happy with POQ's decision not to participate in the remaining 4 wells. This is the same approach many companies have taken in the past in the Permian - let the other guy take the risk and prove up your acreage. If Tamboran proves up this smaller block, I will assure you that its surrounding acreage, which Falcon owns 22.5%, will also go up in value as the acreage value is blind to a penciled in line defining a DSU/FSDA. I would rather retain my undiluted 22.5 % than have Falcon dilute our shares to raise the funds required to participate in these next four wells. I would rather stick with our 10% net interest in this 1.7% of our total Beetaloo acreage while also retaining 100% interest in the remaining 98.3% acreage than give away, through dilution, possibly 10 - 15% of my effective ownership in Falcon's 1 million net Beetaloo acres - seems like a pretty simple math equation to me. You're playing checkers while POQ is playing chess. Philip has carried our little penny stock to this point in fine shape - you might want to continue to follow his lead as you might end up with some serious change in your pocket :^)

805slo: The following is from Tamboran's SEC Sch 14 A Filing dated Oct 7, 2024. I suspect this is the payment (partial?) in lieu of completing the checkerboarding process in a timely manner.

Approval, for purposes of ASX Listing Rule 10.11 and for all other purposes, of the issuance of 312,500 shares of Common Stock (which may be represented by CDIs) to Daly Waters Energy, LP (or its nominee) in satisfaction of certain payment obligations under the TB1 Joint Venture Agreement (as defined in the Annual Report).

WetWater: Must say this is great news for a change. Now, Liberty needs to move onto the location and work their magic. Not a done deal yet but this makes for a happier Christmas. We are in good hands with Liberty, so mark your calendars for the end of 1st qtr 2025.

Kmj: I consider the information on the SS2H ST1 and SS4H to be a reliable source. I would also expect these to be better wells since we will have some of the top fracking technology available on these wells. For now, all one can go on is basically rock and pressures; as I understand these shale wells, they will not vary much from one location to another having the same general formation depth, thickness and rock. We are looking to achieve the basic flow rate of the SS1H but, IMO, a little better with Liberty performing the frack. Also, the completion of these wells is a learning experience - frack design, soaking, etc. can improve results. With good flow rates we should see better price action, but in all reality, it will take a bit for word to spread and companies to request access to Falcon's data room. With good wells, Falcon's acreage will increase in value but as always, putting timing on it is the tricky part. I would hope with two nice commercial wells; Philip will have something of value to promote - I also suspect Tamboran will be ringing their bell.

BlooBird: Our court system in the US is a mess - IMO it starts with too many attorneys chasing dollars - but back to the checkerboards in the Beetaloo - The checkerboards are to be drawn-up by Tamboran. Sheffield had an agreement with Tam that these checkerboard blocks would be defined and submitted by 2024 year end (don't know the actuals date). Tamboran did not meet their deadline and therefore had to pay BS a fine of close to $15 million in Tam stock. Paying this fine does not remove Tamboran's legal requirement to draw these blocks.; what I don't understand at this point is what is the new deadline (if one exist). These blocks, after defined, will then be submitted to the NT for their blessing prior to BS selecting his first choice. IMO, it could be 2026 before the assignment of checkerboarding actually happens. In reality, there is no real hurry to complete these block assignments as the new APA pipeline has yet to begin, therefore no hurry by BS to drill any wells. This is my understanding of the process - if others have a better understanding please chime-in.