Member Info for WetWater

KMJ: Thanks! I have never used filtering until now - its a pretty cool feature. On my chat window it shows three green flags that show filtered messages - since Ultra is my only filtered member it must be him :^) FYI - I'm not even interested in unfiltering him to see what garbage he posted - I assume I'm the new Hilter :^) Anyway my recommendation is that the ignore feature is valuable for those posters that constantly offer nothing but nonsense to the board.

I hate it for the board that a poster can dirty up a board with constant post regarding another stock and off topic post. Other boards have monitors that will delete the inappropriate post and even posters - I don't see where that is available on the LSE board but in the meantime the filter tool saves me aggravation.

Anyway - thanks for the vote of confidence. I may be pro Falcon to a fault but I have not and will never post something that I know is incorrect - I'm just a stockholder like most others on this board - no point in trying to fool myself or others.

BO: In the Permian Basin we still see big deals happening - even with the current $50 price of oil. Why - Because these type of deals aren't based on the month to month spot price of WTI, LNG, Henry Hub, etc. You tend to forget that Australia is in a 100 year natural gas shortage. The Beetaloo's potential market is balanced between the domestic and LNG. Long term the gas demand from Asia is looking strong - Why do you think Jemena is looking to expand pipelines and INPEX is planning to build 4 additional LNG trains. You need to be looking longer term when you predict future demand of, in this case, the Asian market. The Beetaloo will supply these markets for many decades to come.

Granted the current weakness can affect the negotiations of a future sell of Falcon's 30% but any offers will be based on more that the current month's spot price of natural gas. Any sell is likely 18 months away so we shall see what the market brings in 2021. I do agree that this project needs to get to commercialization soon but not because of the current weak gas prices - contrary to the Green People, natural gas demand will on average remain strong in the coming years.

Newtofo: I don't normally filter people but in this case that is probably a good idea. I don't think I will miss much other than a old song or video and how Proton will get grass stains out of one's clothes amongst other wonders.
Thanks for the suggestion.

Ultra: Please take it to another board - this is the Falcon board. I've got several other stocks that have huge potential but this is not the place for me to start touting them - I'm sure many others could do the same. Please respect the other Falcon posters and reserve this board for Falcon related news - if it's a quiet day then so be it. For you to constantly hype this stock as being a world saving technology that will prove to be a huge advantage for Falcon stockholders, all oil communities and mankind in general is quite a stretch, quite disingenuous and frankly very very annoying.

Wow Guys - Proton Technology sounds like a tremendous stock with loads of potential that probably deserves its own board - Please and Thank You!

Cont.............

"We decided to stop part way because if we continued and completed drilling and lined the bore hole it wasn't going to adequately meet our specifications to undertake fracking and do good test of the well's potential.

"To help visualise, we're drilling a hole that's 8 and a half inches wide and were couple of inches wider in places over a 700 metre partially drilled section. These are the robust operational standards and controls we apply."

Origin wants to drill the horizontal hole between one and two kilometres long.

"What we're doing - plugging back and side tracking from an existing vertical well - is not an uncommon thing to do in exploration drilling and poses no additional risks," Ms Boyes said.

"Fracking will proceed following the successful completion of drilling and after the integrity of the well is independently tested and verified."

Protect Country spokesman Dan Robins said: "Protect Country Alliance remains concerned following the recent drilling incident at Origin's Kyalla 117 well.

"We renew our call for there to be a full investigation into what occurred, and for the information to be made public.

"Shale gas drilling in the Beetaloo Sub-Basin is an extremely risky venture, and Origin appears to have been unable to even get the basics of drilling right without incident.

"The company should not be permitted to drill this well, especially during the wet season. Over 6000 people wrote submissions last year opposing the drilling of this well. Territorians are right to ask why this well would be allowed to be drilled at all."

Take two for drilling long sideways hole for fracking
Chris McLennanChris McLennan
JANUARY 31 2020 - 8:38AM
Local News
Origin's Kyalla 117 is the first well to be drilled since the moratorium was lifted to explore for shale gas in the Beetaloo Base near Daly Waters. Picture: Origin Energy.
Origin's Kyalla 117 is the first well to be drilled since the moratorium was lifted to explore for shale gas in the Beetaloo Base near Daly Waters. Picture: Origin Energy.
Gas companies are ready to start drilling again after striking trouble at the showpiece Kyalla 117 well near Daly Waters.

Origin Energy and exploration partner Falcon Oil and Gas yesterday announced work had started to drill a horizontal hole from its deep well in preparation for fracking.

The companies were unexpectedly forced to plug the first hole drilled sideways in its deep horizontal shaft several weeks ago.

Origin Energy says the "operational challenges" which led to the plugging of a long horizontal shaft on its Kyalla 117 well exploring for gas near Daly Waters were "not uncommon".

Kyalla 117 was the subject of a celebratory NT Government media release back in October saying the first steps towards developing an onshore gas industry in the NT had been made after a three-year moratorium.

Primary Industry and Resources Minister Paul Kirby in October said the successful drilling of the Kyalla 117 well, as part of Origin's Beetaloo Exploration Program, was a milestone.

The companies said work had started to "sidetrack" from the vertical shaft to drill the new horizontal hole.

"This new horizontal section will again target a lateral length of 1000 to 2000 metres within the Lower Kyalla shale at a depth of 1800 metres," the companies announced.

"Drilling results to date have been encouraging," Falcon chief executive Philip O'Quigley said.

"Falcon remains very optimistic about the potential of the lower Kyalla shale play," he said in a statement to the London Stock Exchange yesterday.

"We look forward to updating the market as further results become available."

By the end of November, the companies had successfully drilled the vertical shaft almost two kilometres deep into the Beetaloo, finding a 900 metre gas-rich layer of shale as they did.

After completing the vertical shaft, the success of fracking is being able to drill sideways from that main shaft, to drill a long horizontal shaft the width of a dinner plate.

It is this drill hole which is fracked, to open up the fractures in the shale to release the gas.

Earlier in the month, Origin general manager for Beetaloo and Growth Assets Tracey Boyes said there were no issues with well integrity.

How a fracking well looks. Graphic: Origin Energy.
How a fracking well looks. Graphic: Origin Energy.

"We're drilling horizontally in a 50m thick shale that's over a kilometre below the nearest aquifer, with several layers of impermeable rock in between," Ms Boyes said.

Cont................

Knight- your missing the point. If say INPEX is the buyer, they are buying Falcon ‘s 30% interest in the Beetaloo - they could care less about Falcon’s corporate entity - Inpex doesn’t want it.

At one time Origin was considering sell off some of their Beetaloo interest. If Falcon and Origin sold together as a package do you think INPEX would pay Falcon and Origin different amounts/TCF based on their stock priced - that’s absurd! Following that line of thinking INPEX could buy Falcon’s interest on the cheap and then turn around and sell to a Chevron for 20x they paid Falconthe because INPEX stock is worth more?

We are selling proven reserves/resources- not shares of stock. Two completely different things.

KMJ - I’m without internet and computer so this will be to the point. INPEX or whomever is not buying Falcon - they will be buying reserves/resources. The share price has nothing to do with the proven asset value of Falcon/Origin Beetaloo discovery. 6.6 TCF is worth the same per TCF whether it is bought from Falcon OR Origin. Hopefully we will have several companies bidding on these assets - whether Falcon stock is priced at .15 or $2.00/share is immaterial - no one wants Falcon. Someone might throw a lowball early bid at Falcon based on its stock price but IMO Falcons big shareholders are going to wait for stage 3 to be completed before giving much consideration to any early bid.

Newtofo: Yes - the Kyalla is still a bit of the unknown. I can tell you however that Origin was extremely pleased with the downhole pressure, gas shows, continuity, etc. Origin needs to figure out a solution to the sloughing off of the formation - for them to immediately come back and redrill makes one think they have that solution. I talked to an guy last night about the sloughing off and he said his company had that issue in a well they had to finally abandon it - the drill pipe kept getting stuck with the hole basically caving in. I don't think we have that big of an issue in the Kyalla - seems they drilled 700 meters before they encountered the problem - may have just been in one section. Anyway - it is wise for everyone to not count their chickens on the Kyalla until it is completed. The Kyalla is a new formation and that in itself carries some inherent risk. With that said I am still very positive on its potential and look forward to getting that initial 24 hour flow test result. GLA

dprussky: Thanks for the laugh on the 'good source of news'. So not only is frackfluid radioactive but then gas and oil also as it comes from the same formations. Sounds like we need to go to solar and wind to save the planet or so this reliable source indicates.
Funny how this also appears in the RT news - Fracking is a direct threat to not only the environmentalist but also Russia - I have been told Russia actually funds some of the anti-fracking groups as it serves their energy purposes - having the US become energy sufficient and flood the world with oil/gas directly impacts the Russia government.

BO: You are missing the whole point of that article. It's not the potential revenue generated by 1.2 Mmcf - its the fact that this 1.2 Mmcf/day is flowing from a tight shale formation from a well that has only been tested using DFIT. I'm not an engineer but know that a DFIT test is basically a very small frack test that is expected to give a 'puff' in return - not a continuous flow of gas in the quantities that Santos is seeing. If the Santos well produces 1.2 Mmcf/day out of 2-3 DFITs then what will that well produce with a 1500 - 2000 meter full blown frack job - that is the excitement of the announcement.

Drilling cost are higher in OZ and the dollar is worth less than the US. OZ gas currently brings about 2x-3x the price - So many variables I'm not qualified to pin down actual price but Origin/Santos seem to think the Beetaloo holds lots of potential with the current drilling cost/ revenue model. POQ has referenced future gas demand predictions due to the ever increasing Asian market - the demand just continues to grow - thus INPEX's plan to build about four more LNG trains in Darwin.

Once again you seem to always try to paint the glass half empty - must be kind of a downer to be you!

Newtofo: Good news from Santos. Maybe the zone(s) included in the flow test will clarify at some point - I am betting more than 1 zone - If only one zone then Holy Moly!! You mentioned 4 middle Velkerri DFITs? Do they have an additional Velkerri zone to Origin's A, B and C shales? Curious if there were a sub-zone - maybe if I missed something along the way. Anyway good news for the Velkerri with its 95% aerial coverage of Falcon's Beetaloo concession. POQ recently said that a successful Santos test would do nothing but help prove up the commerciality of the Velkerri - the stage 3 wells would still be required but the Tamburini is another great data point in the Middle Velkerri shale.

Ultra: That was a short lived self exile but welcome back. It seems since you have returned you have posted nothing but non-Falcon information. I know you believe your newly promoted technology is going to be employed in the Beetaloo but I assure you that is not happening before we Falcon investors have moved on to other investments. Have you ever considered starting your own board for your stock du jour?

BO: And what do you propose we do about it? When you are the first into battle sometimes you catch the arrows. It was an unfortunate unforeseen problem with a never before horizontally drilled formation. Unknown environments can create unpredictable results. But then again, in your eyes, it was probably all POQ's fault!

If the Kyalla proves highly successful the Velkerri wet will be removed as a stage2 well - if that happens then plenty of money to apply to stage3. If the Velkerri is drilled then I agree there may need for an additional stage3 raise to prove commerciality of whatever target is picked - I just see that raise as being a low hurdle for Falcon at that point.

Question - What is the new horizontal targeted distance since you indicate it is shrinking again. Last I heard it was about 1500 meters which was the initial potential length. New flash - this horizontal test well does not prove commerciality of the Kyalla - that is the purpose of the stage3 program. This Kyalla well could come at 7 - 8 Mmcfd and there would still need to be stage 3 wells drilled - companies won't accept commerciality based on one well's performance.

You just need to view this as another chance to load up with another 20,000 shares of stock.

Thanks Namu. As always I greatly value your input.

Darnit: Origin and rig employees have been forbidden to buy shares of Falcon until the results of the Kyalla are known - doing so will cost them their job. I am pretty sure this was the case on the Aumngee well - the volume and stock price prior to the announcement of a discovery showed no indication of what Origin was seeing on the EFT prior to the news release. Origin/Falcon,keep information tight which IMO is a good thing.

Does continuous gas shows necessarily equate to flares? In a conventional well that might be the case but I don't know on a shale well? You are not going to see a big flare until the well is fracked and the well has unloaded. I don't know what we should expect at this stage but then again they may be flaring a small amount of gas and its not a big deal.

I'm glad to see you point out to the board that the natural fracking is a good thing - I failed to mention that.

Thanks Poods - I just try to let people know what I am hearing. As I mentioned I don't have the training to fully evaluate some information but it makes logical sense that Origin wouldn't immediately redrill unless they had a solution at hand. Good for you on the additional shares of stock. I haven't added in a while - not because I don't believe the story - I just already have way too much as a percentage of my portfolio and enough to say grace over! I don't know POQ's personal position in the stock - just know he has sufficient shares to stay well focused on Falcon. I don't quote conversations but I can assure you he feels this is a 'once in a lifetime' opportunity and he doesn't plan on screwing it up! POQ is all in on the Beetaloo which give me comfort in my investment.

Nerves: I am not an engineer but I was told that the Kyalla formation was naturally highly fractured and that is what caused the sloughing of the borehole walls. I was also told this could be corrected by using a different consistency of drilling mud - it didn't seem to be a big concern other than the cost/delay of redrilling the horizontal. As I pointed out on this board, the Kyalla is a bit of an unknown environment - never having been horizontally drilled before. Origin seemed to have hit a spot where the walls were sloughing off - apparently this did not happen right off and it became apparent after about 700 meters. If Origin didn't think they had the solution in hand rest assured they wouldn't immediately turn around and redrill the hole. This was an unfortunate issue but IMO it was just a 'learning experience' of being the first to horizontally drill the Kyalla.

cont.

Falcon Oil and Gas CEO Philip O'Quigley said:"While it is unfortunate to have encountered these operation difficulties, which will add to the time and the cost to drill the horizontal section, the joint venture partners remains as optimistic about the potential of the Kyalla and we look forward to updating the market with further updates in due course."

Origin has exploration permits over 18,500 square kilometres of the NT, and along with Santos, has rushed to drill for gas since a three-year moratorium on exploration was lifted.

The government even rushed out a media release on this same Kyalla well back in October saying a milestone had been reached as it was the first to be drilled.

Origin and Falcon Oil and Gas plan to try again with their horizontal drill "within the next month".

"Fracture stimulation activity will only occur after the successful completion of drilling and the integrity of the well is tested and verified."

Protect Country Alliance's Mr Sawyer said this troubling event was yet more evidence that fracking was too risky for the Territory.

"It is critical no more approvals are made until full scientific studies are completed and the risks are fully investigated."