Member Info for WetWater

Perth: Why is it that I never see those typos/error until I hit the 'Post Message' button - then they jump out at me? I have a bad habit of not reviewing my post thoroughly. Yes you are correct - the dollar sign was in error. I sure wish Lse would give the poster a chance to edit - in my case that would prove helpful!

I’m good Night - just struggling with you superior intellect. You remind me of a guy I once knew on this board - Hmmm! He was the self avowed smartest individual on the board - know him?

Hang in there?? I’m the one sitting back fat and happy - you are the one fretting about the s/p. Chill my friend - all is well.

Hey Night - Whatever you think - sounds like you have it all figured out. I'll repeat myself - I don't give a friggin rat's ass what the day to day price action is on this penny stock - I'm in it for dollars at the end of the project - I'll leave the day to day price 'action' of Falcon with you - good luck.

Curious - what's your take on last April's capital raise. IMO it was pretty much a non-event. Once Falcon gets the next well or two drilled then stage3 will target the shale with the most commercial potential. If Origin is looking to prove up a decent play but still needs a few more dollars to finish completion of the second stage3 well then IMO that raise will be another non-event. To think that another potential small raise is keeping this stock suppressed is you in search of answer.

IMO the stock is being suppressed by Sweetpea. What was once $60+million shares FOG is at last count about $18 million. The seller is patiently selling into the market without driving the stock price down. From what I was told the seller was never interested Sweetpea's (Petrohuntner) FOG stock but rather the acreage positions they acquired - they needs the cash from the stock sales for some reason I don't understand. IMO Falcon needs a new fresh stock ledger of buyers - the majority of current holders have been in for too long and like myself already have too many shares.

Schlemiel : My sentiments exactly. Some people have to have something to worry about. Falcons n can easily meet any additional raise. If they need $50 million for another year of participation that wouldn’t be an issue IMO!

BO: The multi-year moratorium is now behind Falcon and the new fracking regs are known. I suspect Origin has given Falcon an update to estimated drilling cost for the next few wells as evidenced in the article link you provided. I have always contended that the nearly 3 year moratorium and the new expensive regs are what caused the inflated AFE cost of the Kyalla well - IMO funds will be tight and another possible raise could show up next year but its not going to be of any major concern. If Falcon needs a few extra dollars to complete the second stage3 well the money will be easily raised. Hopefully by that time Falcon has much more to show for their efforts.

BO: Thanks for clarifying. So Falcon has $13 million in the bank with a $2 million/yr burn rate and $5.5 million estimated capped carry exposure for stage2/stage3. Then we add another bit for the ORI option purchase ($?) - sorry but too lazy to look up tonight. Also looking at some cost for an appraisal report. Looks to be tight on cash - maybe the Kayalla comes in gangbusters and the Velkerri wet is cancelled freeing up that cost. If the Kyalla looks positive any additional raise will be as quick and simple as the last - if not IMO a raise still gets done easily with any success in stage 2/stage3 wells. Interesting times ahead.
Thanks for the reference. I had missed that.

Shalmar: Thanks for clarifying that detail. That would make the Amungee about a 5MMcf well.

Newtofo/Giovanni: It is also important to remember that production is being restricted due to undersized casing used in test wells for economic reasons. I recall Orson or Nano addressing this. My question is if 5MMcf/day is the target is that with smaller casing or is that an extrapolated figure allowing for full size casing - don't know.

BO: Sorry - don’t understand your possible raise comment. If Falcon has 13 million and an annual burn rate of 2 million and is carried on for stage2/stage3 wells are you saying the above capped cost will exceed $9 million? If so where are you getting this information?

987: Thanks for the very thorough report on the AGM. As IT I was surprised to hear that an immediate move to stage3 might be considered - of course that would be dependent on a gangbuster flow test of the Kyalla to such an extent that it exceeded Origin's/Falcon's expectations of the Amungee dry gas and the potential of the Velkerri wet.

I take it that the potential of additional 'stage4' wells to prove up Amungee dry gas resources prior to sell was not addressed - That may be getting the cart before the horse - better to focus on the Kyalla and see where this exploration/appraisal goes from there.

Thanks again for taking the time to attend the meeting and report back to this board.

Darnit: That was my exact comments to another investor. That's a wide spread to allow yourself. They must have the drill pipe, tubing etc. on hand to drill out to what every distance they plan. I really look for it to be closer to the 2000 meter since it was mentioned but that is just a guess on my part. IMO the longer the lateral the better indication one can get of the potential - maybe if the Kyalla is engineered to be a test well they just want to see enough for proper evaluation. Maybe someone can ask that tomorrow at the AGM.

Somm: Sorry guy but 'have commenced' is not the same as going to be commenced. My information was that the horizontal was already being drilled - no I don't know for how long it has been drilling. You may not realize it but the Kyalla vertical was actually begun prior to the announcement that it was being drilled - I think it had to do with insuring tight information just as was done on the Amungee well. You are trying a little too hard to prove yourself smarter than you actually are.

Newtofo: Never got an answer on the water study etc. question on the DFIT - seems no one cares since it will not be impacting Falcon in the future. Concerning a DFIT there was one performed on the Kyalla for what it's worth. Also in my questioning I verified what others have mentioned - a proper core analysis takes from 3-6 months to perform. In the Kyalla case Origin has preliminary data from the core which will tells them what they need to proceed. The real benefit of the full core analysis is useful in future Kyalla completions.

As Orson, BO and others have mentioned, the horizontal section of the well is currently being drilled. We got our horizontal announcement when Origin announced they were immediately proceeding with the horizontal - that was a much bigger, more important bit of news that some may have overlooked - Origin saw what it needed in the Kyalla to announce the quick decision to move forward. The next expected news release will likely be when fracking begins which is a given - you don't ever drill a horizontal without fracking. After fracking I would look for a short 24 hour flow test announcement after the well unloads followed by maybe an operational release and then the final EFT results after about January/February of 2020.

Anyone in Dublin needs to keep their ears to the ground at the AGM - I expect there will be bits and pieces of the Kyalla well data that have not yet been announced - POQ doesn't want all his thunder stolen! Maybe someone can pin POQ down on the possibility that if stage3 wells target the Kyalla or the Velkerri wet gas what becomes of the Amungee well if it's felt no one wants to pay up for contingent resources - specifically does Falcon continue on with participation in a couple of more stage4 wells to prove up the commerciality of the Velkerri dry gas..

Philip needs more disappointed shareholders like you :^) Even though you throw rocks it's good to know that you still see the inherent value in Falcon. IMO you will be well rewarded. Have a good weekend.

Newtofo: Yes - the water study issues and the DFIT aren't of immediate concern to Falcon and likely may never be a concern of Falcon. This might be a total waste of time and I should probably drop it but I have one source I want to check with. If that doesn't pan out then I likely will just conclude that the NT fracking regs are stifilling to the industry and be thankful that we have cleared that hurdle! Like I tried to stress - this is in no way directed at you - I just tend to get upset with stupid government regulations.

Newtofo: Thinking about your reply regarding DFIT's. If what you are saying is correct then any future 'exploratory' well could (depending on location) require a full two year water study. Furthermore following that logic a preliminary exploratory well might require all the beefed up oversized casing of a full blown horizontal as proposed by the brilliant non-engineering - non drilling experts on the Pepper panel. Since a DFIT technically involves fracking and the requisite 9000 lbs or so of pressure (with relatively little fluid injection) then in Pepper's eyes that test requires the same requirements as a 30 - 40 stage 2000 - 3000 meter horizontal lateral??

Not saying that you are wrong as much bureaucratic regulation doesn't make logical sense. I am going to attempt to follow up on those potential requirements. Seems that type of regulation would make any exploratory vertical test hole prohibitively expensive just to determine if the formation is frackable. To require a 2 year water study for a well that doesn't use hardly any injection water just doesn't sound right. IMO, which may not count for much in regs, it doesn't make sense for a company to have to spend years of study and jump through all the new fracking regs just to determine if an area even holds potential.

I'll let you know what I find out - might be a few days.

Thanks Newtofo. I know it seems at times like I am arguing with myself. On one hand I say that IMO POQ will give us a news release when the horizontal begins and on the other hand I try to argue that it has begun without the specific news release. Thanks for the clarification on both questions. I didn't realize that water studies had to be performed prior to DFITs - that has always been allowed in the past - maybe part of the new regs.

Poods: I'm confusing the meetings you talk about. Are you talking about tomorrow's Proactive Investor presentation or the AGM on the 11th? I don't expect there to be any earthshaking announcements at tomorrows Proactive meeting - just a nice summary of where Falcon has been and where it is going and hopefully a little hype as to the huge potential the Beetaloo holds. I don't think it will have any effect on the market price of the stock - either up or down - maybe I'm wrong.

Even if the AGM doesn't contain any grand news and is in your terms uneventful I don't see any 20% decline in stock values. I have never understood how the option prices are set - is it an average price over a window of time - don't know. Once again, you are much more concerned with management options than I am. Options are a way of compensation in pretty much all public companies. What POQ may or may not get this year isn't going to be material to what Falcon hopes to get in its sell of the Beetaloo in the next year and a half.

You may have had nothing but grief with Falcon but then you keep telling us how you are adding to your position. Makes me want to scratch my head :^) Chill Lucelle - hopefully we will soon have some great news on the Kyalla - but then you will probably find some reason to be grief stricken right before you add more to your Falcon holdings. Maybe you would be a happy investor if only they had only done a reverse split to prove you right - just needling you a bit - sorry :^)

Newtofo: A couple of questions:
I do not follow Santos that close - Have they completed, or will they have completed the required 2 year water studies required to drill a full blown Tanumbirini horizontal leg after the wet season? Maybe I missed the issuing of that permit?

Has there in fact been a delay in the horizontal leg of the Kyalla? I know we haven't had a specific news release announcing the start of the horizontal but in the last release by Falcon/Origin they indicated they were excited with what they saw downhole and were proceeding directly with the horizontal portion of the well. I may have taken that too literally but then again that might have been their announcement that they were in fact moving on to drilling the horizontal?

ITguy: Thanks for the heads-up. It would be nice if some of our Londoners could attend. I really enjoyed the last proactive presentation Philip did a couple of years ago - I have forwarded that video to several people who have since become shareholders. I hope and expect Proactive will make POQ's presentation available on their site.