Member Info for WetWater

Schlemiel: I have heard that we might not know the status of fracking the Kyalla until the job is completed. It seems that Origin doesn't want to stir up the anti-fracking group anymore than necessary. Maybe around September we will get good results on the initial flow test. Keep your fingers crossed.

Whats lacking is the declaration of the Amungee/Velkerri 'B' being a Commercial Discovery. It will take additional wells to prove up the Velkerri B - the Santos Velkerri B well will help. Thus we get back to my unanswered concern - if the Kyalla looks great and it is the target of the Stage 3 wells what becomes of the Velkerri B dry gas discovery - can Origin/Falcon realize the potential of that 6.6 TCF of contingent resources. The Velkerri B holds tremendous potential yet it might play second fiddle to the Kyalla - time will tell.

Sorry for the formatting in the previous post - Didn't see that one coming!

cont...

“This is exactly the sort of uncertain messaging that drives investors away right at the time when the NT is most in need of additional business investment,” he said.

“The broader business community should be rightly concerned about the uncertainty that policies like these create for private investment in any industry in the Territory.

“Successful exploration, appraisal and development of the Northern Territory’s natural gas resources could provide significant benefits including jobs, local business opportunities, new value-adding industries, infrastructure and community investment for decades to come.”

The Chamber of Commerce NT says it does not support the Territory Alliance policy on hydraulic fracturing because it did not seem to take into account the evidence or logic that has been comprehensively considered by the Pepper Inquiry, the NT Government’s inquiry into fracking.

“This is a major concern for Territory business and sends mixed messages from a party that puts itself forward as an alternative government,” Chamber chief executive Greg Ireland said.

Master Builders NT was also left shaking its head.

“We are in the middle of an economic crisis and we are going to have to find a way to rebuild our economy,” chief executive David Malone said.

“We should not be taking anything that achieves that off the table. An onshore gas industry has many downstream benefits.”

Following is an article that addresses some of the politics surrounding fracking in the NT. Basically the leadership in the Territory Alliance party did a flip from pro-fracking to anti-fracking. This was a desperate attempt to garner votes for the upcoming election pitting Territory Alliance Leader Terry Mills against Michael Gunner, the current Chief Minister. The move left people scratching their heads as Terry Mills has previously been a staunch supporter of the shale industry. Not to worry though - the NT News, a major NT paper did an online survey of its readers in Darwin, Alice Springs, Katherine - areas known for their anti-fracking elements - the results: 68% supported fracking, 7% didn't give a frack and 25% were opposed to fracking. The writing is on the wall for this election and Mills flip didn't appear to add the votes he needs.The main purpose of this post is to let you guys know things are still moving forward - drilling will resume after the NT removes the covid restriction on July 17th. Origin has yet to announce when it plans to restart the fracking of the Kyalla 117 well along with drilling the Velkerri wet well. Peak business, industry groups slam Territory Alliance backflip on frackingTERRITORY Alliance’s Ban Fracking policy would put the creation of thousands of new jobs, hundreds of millions of dollars in work for local companies and revenues to the Territory government at risk, the peak body representing the gas industry says.GARY SHIPWAY, NT NewsTERRITORY Alliance’s Ban Fracking policy would put the creation of thousands of new jobs, hundreds of millions of dollars in work for local companies and revenues to the Territory government at risk, the peak body representing the gas industry says.APPEA Northern Territory director Keld Knudsen said the Territory Alliance policy also disrespected the consent and rights of Native Title holders, who support onshore gas development and put at risk their existing and future benefits and opportunities.“We are keen to understand how and why Mr Mills’ view has changed,” Mr Knudsen said.“The backflip is staggering given Mr Mills said in January: ‘If onshore gas is a viable industry in every way, then we should welcome it as a part of our economy. To do otherwise would send a message of uncertainty and governmental incompetence to all businesses right at the time when the NT is most in need of additional business investment.’Territory Alliance Leader Terry Mills has also alienated himself with the peak body representing Northern Territory business, which was blindsided by his shock policy announcement.Mr Knudsen said APPEA’s members stood ready to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in to exploring the NT’s natural gas reserves, and if exploration is successful, there would be many times that spent in bringing these anticipated projects to full production.

Don't forget the Feds promised to take away the NT's beggin plate if they didn't move forward developing their own natural resources making an honest attempt to become more self-sufficient financially. The repercussions of trying to stall/kill this industry would be pretty devastating to the needed jobs/economic health of the NT. The Feds have already cut funds from what is already a pretty tight budget and I suspect would be quick to make any attempt to ban fracking even more painful. With the NT being a territory dependent on the federal government I don't see this happening - just liberal ABC's promotion of the green agenda.

The way I read this is is still subject to the two 14 day covid cycles not spiking.

The Northern Territory will open its borders on Friday, July 17.

Chief Minister Michael Gunner has just announced the Territory will end its mandatory quarantine arrangements to all states and territories from 12:01am on July 17.

"This morning I received medical advice that community transmission down south is now tracking at an acceptable risk level," Mr Gunner said.

"Based on the evidence, our Chief Health Officer recommends a 28-day assessment period before opening our borders - which is two COVID-19 replication cycles.

"That is why we are waiting until next month."

NT Opposition leader Lia Finocchiaro this week said she would have opened the borders on Monday.

Mr Gunner said from July 17, arrivals will not have to self-quarantine for 14 days before enjoying the Territory.

"This gives the rest of Australia four weeks' notice, and it gives the Territory four weeks to get ready," he said.

"It gives businesses time to prepare. It gives us time to market the Territory to visitors.

"It gives us time to lock in the gains we've made - and be absolutely certain we aren't putting our progress at risk.

"Twenty-eight days notice makes sure we that we don't stuff this up."

The decision will come too late for the big dry season school break which ends that same weekend.

BlooBird: LOL! That looks like one of the old shallow oil fields of California - As Nerves said, what the NT will see will be much of nothing by comparison. Attached is a shot of three 'Christmas Trees' on a pad for the Marcellus (gas play somewhat analogous to the Beetaloo). This pad shot shows three wells in the picture - Origin has indicated there will be 8 - 16 of these wells per pad. Looking out towards the next pad you will need a good set of binoculars as the next pad will be about 4 - 5 miles away. There will be additional infrastructure for condensate gathering (Kyalla), roads, pipelines, etc. but nothing like the Economist BS picture.

https://www.chevron.com/stories/chevron-in-the-marcellus-shale

Oleo: Thanks for the link. I will look thru it when I have time but I can assure you that you do not want my opinion on water saturation levels - maybe that would be a better question addressed to Nano or some other guy that makes a living with a slide rule :^)

Oleo: Fog is being fully carried - they don't have the same risk as the shale oil/gas companies in the US or OZ. Our primary risk right now is exploratory/appraisal in nature. The oil/gas market in the Permian/US as in Australia are commodity based markets - rest assured the US/World needs energy and we are many many years away (if ever) from a self sustaining renewable energy base. Asia/East Coast Australia needs the Beetaloo gas - in a year or so when Falcon's Beetaloo interest goes to market the whole energy picture will have changed - you can't base today's drilling program on the current oil and gas prices.

I haven't seen the water saturation numbers you are referring to - can't address that.

Was anyone able to register for the Origin zoom meeting in a few hours from now? I requested a seat about three days ago but never received a response. Now I see that registration is closed. If anyone can give us any color on the meeting it would be appreciated. I'm sure the details of the meeting will come out soon.

Just received an email concerning my 2nd request:

Our events are hosted for our members and their guests. We do not provide a public platform for information.
If you are looking for information on Origin projects please visit their website.

So much for the non-member $15.00 registration fee :^(

James - Yep - just a typo - s/b Out

Sorry

This strengthens the hand of the LNG market in Darwin and will prove to be a beneficial market for Beetaloo gas. It also puts an Australian company in the spotlight of the NT's economic future.

Darwin on track to become national Santos gas hub after $2.2bn deal
AN AUSTRALIAN energy giant has revealed plans for Darwin to be one of its key national hubs, after it today completed a $2.2 billion gas deal to take the dominant stake in ConocoPhillips’ Darwin LNG plant and northern assets

AUSTRALIAN energy giant Santos has revealed plans for Darwin to be one of its key national hubs.

Santos chief executive Kevin Gallagher said future plans are for it to be a key link in the Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth nexus.

Mr Gallagher said the completion today of the $2.2 billion gas deal to take the dominant stake in ConocoPhillips’ Darwin LNG plant and northern assets, will pave the way for that.

“We will immediately get to work in Darwin now … we want Darwin to be a core part of our universe,” Mr Gallagher said.

“We see Darwin as a critical part of a long term growth strategy for Santos and we want to have a much stronger presence up in Darwin.

“The completion of the ConocoPhillips Darwin LNG acquisition is the start of building a strong presence in Darwin and becoming a much more prominent member of the Northern Territory and its community in the years ahead.

“We look forward to not only bringing Bayu Undan gas into Darwin and giving Darwin LNG another 15 or 20 years life, but we look forward to expanding it and creating more high paying jobs in the region for years ahead.”

The Barossa gas field offshore project, 300km north of Darwin, is the lead candidate to supply backfill gas through Bayu Undan to the Darwin LNG plant.

Santos had expected to take a final investment decision on the Barossa project in the second quarter of this year, however the coronavirus pandemic has delayed that until “market conditions permit”.

“We want to centre more of our operations up in that part of the world,” Mr Gallagher said.

“The great thing about Darwin and the Northern Territory is that it is surrounded with hundreds of years worth of stranded potential resource and what we want to do is have a long term strategic objective to grow Darwin and exploit those resources.

“It is right on the doorstep of Asia and could not be better positioned for the customers that want that gas. We are very excited about being part of the future in Darwin.

“Santos stands for the South Australia and Northern Territory Oil Search company, so we have Northern Territory in our name and we are very keen to increase our presence in Darwin.

“Ultimately today we see Santos as being Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth and tomorrow we want Darwin to be the other Santos key centre.”

Here is the article GreenLanteren referenced:

A DECISION to lift biosecurity zone restrictions in the Territory’s remote communities could be made today.

The restrictions were set to be reviewed on June 18. It is understood however federal Minister for Indigenous Australians Ken Wyatt will today confirm with Chief Minister Michael if the date will be moved forward to June 5.
On ABC Radio Mr Wyatt said he was confident the restrictions could be lifted earlier.

“From my perspective it should be a positive outcome,” he said.
“I see no impediment now given the Northern Territory will continue to keep their borders closed and the leaderships in the indigenous community throughout the Territory has been exemplary in protecting people within their communities.”

Biosecurity zones include the Tiwi Islands, West Arnhem and East Arnhem, the Roper Gulf (excluding Mataranka), and Victoria Daly (excluding the Pine Creek Ward).

People cannot enter biosecurity zones unless they are an approved essential worker, have an exemption or are a resident of the community who has completed 14 days quarantine.

There are no restrictions on leaving a biosecurity area, however anyone wanting to return must quarantine for 14 days first.

Nano: Sorry to hear your lip is still stuck out - don't trip over it. Looks like you were wrong before and I suspect your going to be wrong again. PE or not, for you to call people idiots and stupid shows your arrogance. I'll stick with what I am hearing from people that I suspect are in a lot better position to know what is going on in the Beetaloo than you.

Newtofo: Thanks for taking time to respond to some of the nonsense being posted to the board. I had to chuckle at Pood's target price - I look for him to be selling in a couple of months when the Kyalla is fracked! Just looking at the Velkerri B there are estimates of 85 TCF - what are those estimates if the Kyalla and the Velkerri wet proves to be productive. The analyst have already assigned a .40+ pence value to Falcon just based on the one Velkerri B dry gas well - that might be reduced a bit with the 7.5% net reduction but with all the other potential of the Beetaloo to think the selling price is .25 cents is ludicrous. Thanks Newtofo for helping to maintain some degree of sanity to this board.

Camelot: I'm on the road but short answer (IMO) is that at the time, (before COVID) Falcon was looking at the Kyalla with a quick follow up of the Velkerri wet well and if I remember correctly a potential start of the first stage 3 well. That has all changed but with the weak oil industry prices it could have been a rough market for another timely raise. The Origin deal carries Falcon through the end of the project without and additional raise. This is really not a good answer to your question but I think it secured Falcon's future - I know the major stockholders were for this deal if that is of any concession.
Gotta run - I can see your point of not waiting for the Kyalla results but I believe it just got into a market timing issue. For whatever reasons the 'market' and the major players seemed to have approved of the deal so I believe POQ got it right.

dprussky: Falcon, in the new agreement, gave Origin complete control over the timeline. Based on a previous farm-out contract we have never seen, Origin had deadlines they were required to meet - granted, those kept being adjusted due to the moratorium, new fracking regs, COVID, etc. BO wanted to sue the bastards for not 'living up to' the original farm-out agreement but in reality there were timeline circuit breakers in the agreement as these things were out of Origin/Falcon's control.
From what I understand in the new agreement, Origin is now in complete control of those timelines. IMO that won't really make much difference as it is still in Origin's best interest to prove up the stage 2, stage3 wells asap and move on to the next development stage for the Beetaloo. Origin sold most of their E&P business to develop the Beetaloo - for that reason I believe Origin will continue to prove up this concession in a timely manner as it s in their best interest - that of course is also in Falcon's best interest. IMO nothing has really changed other than we gave up 7.5% for an additional carry and a secure financial future.

Camelot - You are likely as tired of me beating this drum as I am . At the end of the day the large and small stockholders all benefit the same - we all get the same price when the gavel is dropped. Like you, I enjoyed the POQ presentations at the 'investor's' meetings - some encouraging informations was always presented in an interesting fashion. I know after the last presentations it was said that there was 'no money' in the room and thus no benefit to show for the expense and time to put that presentation together. Maybe once the NT gives Origin the go ahead on fracking the Kyalla the news flow and your 'valuations' per acre will pick back up. I'm as ready a you are but in the meantime I'm seeking shelter from all the POQ rock throwing that has been going on.

The Beetaloo's stage 2, stage 3 will happen in time but as we know Origin is now driving this train - it looks to be a slow but steady ride from here on out. We will get there is due time. This has been a much longer ride than I signed up for but as in all life sh*t happens - in this case we are financially healthy and still in the game - something to be said for this day and time.

GLA

BO: Good for you - I'm glad WMB worked out. I kept wanting to buy Chevron when it hit $54 but just didn't have the funds. Now comes your hard hard part of where to go next. I still think the Chevrons/Exxons energy companies of the world are good investments long term - especially with their dividend payout. Now if we could only get our Falcon bird to come to life and double, triple, quadruple, etc, etc. Our time will come but without any strong reserves in pocket we are currently drifting in the wind. :^(

Newtofo: I agree with what you say. Because of the unique structure of some of my entities holding Falcon I believe I will be forced to sell in the open market prior to the final sale - otherwise I get hit with some additional 25% Canadian taxes or so it appears at this point - I never have seriously engaged that question with my CPA at this early date. That means I give up the Mako and SA but IMO I'm not giving up much at this point - that could change over the next year or so but I'm not losing any sleep over it :^)