Tom. Winnifrith22 Oct 2013 18:22
First I have heard of this run in with Conoco, can anybody enlighten?
Tom Winnifrith on Shareprophets:
It is now more than three weeks since I passed to Green Dragon Gas (GDG) a dossier showing environmental wreckage in the US and bloodied Chinese villagers. The dossier was prepared by a former trade partner. I made it clear that I would publish a rebuttal in full. Despite promises to the contrary I have received no such rebuttal. But that is not as pressing as the cash issue and a potential $50 million black hole which could sink Green within weeks.
You can view the full, truly unpleasant dossier here
The cash position is pretty clear. Cash at 20th June was $20.7 million. In the first half the operating loss was $8.3 million while exploration costs (that would be aggressive drilling) were $21 million. Green Dragon has since announced that it is curtailing its drilling which is not exactly surprising if you do the maths. An operational update earlier this week indicated that revenues had increased in Q3 and that this give additional options to funding discretionary capex. But sales volumes were only 2% up on Q2 so given the first half metrics it is clear that cash is VERY tight. I note that the “operations and finance” section of that update provided no guidance at all on the exact cash position as at 30th September but you can bet it was well down on June.
But there is a far bigger issue looming. In July a Singapore Court adjudicated in a case of Conoco vs. Green Dragon. It found for Conoco to the tune of $42.6 million plus interest and fees. I am told that the big round number is $46 million.
Green Dragon has appealed and the Court is due to meet early next month (November). Green says it is confident. However I have today seen an email from Conoco in which it states:
ConocoPhillips is pleased with the ruling of the Tribunal. We received our full damage claim plus interest on the claim for breach of the Farm Out Agreement. ConocoPhillips can confirm that Green Dragon Gas is seeking to challenge the award in a Singapore court. ConocoPhillips feels confident about the validity of the award and expects a favorable ruling.
Ends.
We shall see. Green had this claim down as a contingent liability in its last accounts. That means that it was NOT provided for. And so within a few weeks we shall find out one way or another. If Green wins then it is still pretty tight for cash, has still not rebutted the dossier claims and is still, at 260p, capitalised at a mouth-watering £355 million. For a company that has never generated free operational cashflow in its five year history and which is clearly in need of more cash that is bonkers.
But if Green loses then it will be forking out $46 million (plus its costs and Conoco’s costs on the appeal). And quite simply it does not have that cash. That would, I suggest be, very bad news indeed for the share price.
Which way will it go? Bad or Disastrous? Onl