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Interesting article on Konstantin Strukov the new main owner of POG:
” ...Strukov tried to bring the company to the stock exchange, but the Yuzhuralzolota IPO broke down twice - in 2008 due to the crisis and in 2011. Now, one of the options may be to join with one of the competitors, argues Strukov: “You need to build relationships in any business, position yourself so that you always need someone. Then you are not afraid of any competition. "
(Google Translate)
https://forbes.ru/biznes/346359-prostoy-staratel-zachem-vladelcu-yuzhuralzolota-ponadobilas-moskva
analysis on POG från BofA with target 35,4 was based on Gold price 1640 $/oz
BofA Global research BofA Securities 21 April 2019 BofA Securities, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML), is an American multinational investment bank division under the auspices of Bank of America. ”...Petropavlovsk (Upgrade to BUY) We upgrade to BUY. Petropavlovsk offers relatively inexpensive leverage to the gold price. Our new price objective of GBp35 (from GBp23...” Key stock recommendations Polyus (BUY): Huge gold reserves, RUB weakness positive Polymetal (BUY): Proven track record on project execution, RUB weakness positive Centamin (BUY): Tier 1 asset, operational turnaround under way Gold Fields (Upgrade to BUY): Less South African than ever, compelling valuation Petropavlovsk (Upgrade to BUY): POx ramp up positive, delivery improving? AngloGold (Upgrade to Neutral): International redomicile project “in progress” Fresnillo (Neutral): Mixed operational track record, COVID uncertainty Hochschild (Neutral): COVID driven shutdowns impacting key operations Harmony (Underperform): COVID shutdown + big fixed costs ”... Petropavlovsk (Upgrade to BUY) We upgrade to BUY. Petropavlovsk offers relatively inexpensive leverage to the gold price. Our new price objective of GBp35 (from GBp23), 1x our DCF derived NPV (unchanged), a discount to other precious metal peers. The group has had a mixed track record of operational delivery, but recent ramp-up of the group’s pressure oxidation (POx) hub suggests it may have turned a corner operationally. We also see “bolt-on”; life extension deals as potentially interesting / value accretive. Recent changes and updates: • Petropavlovsk (POG) expects FY20 production in the 620-720koz range as a result of high grade materials from Malomir and an increase in 3rd party concentrate processing. • POG remains on schedule for the construction of a new floating facility at Pioneer that should allow the company to unlock value from its refractory reserves • While logistical challenges can be observed in Western Russian, we do not note any operational challenges at POG’s assets.”
”... Thank you for your email and apologies for the lack of details on the IR calendar of our website.
Due to the current pandemic, we have not been updating our calendar until we are certain of dates.
I am awaiting final confirmation, but believe we will report FY 2019 financials and Q1 2020 production numbers on the 27th May.
With regards other events, we will hold a ESG workshop day, but again we have not fixed a date, and I expect our AGM to be held on the 30 June....”
April 27, 2020 13:30
VTB Capital raised recommendation for GDR Polyus and Polymetal shares to “buy” after revaluation of the sector
(added 3rd paragraph, expanded table)
VTB Capital has revised the forecast prices of shares and global depositary receipts (GDR) of the analyzed gold mining companies of the Russian Federation, according to a review of the investment bank.
Based on the revaluation results for the Global Depository Receipts (GDRs) of PJSC Polyus (MOEX: PLZL) and Polymetal shares (MOEX: POLY), the recommendation was upgraded from hold to buy.
For Highland Gold and Petropavlovsk, a buy recommendation was confirmed.
Experts raised their forecasts for gold prices in 2020-2022 by 16-43% - up to $ 1,600 an ounce this year and up to $ 1,900 an ounce the next. In 2022, analysts expect the price of yellow metal at $ 2,280 per ounce.
“The unprecedented monetary easing by the regulators of leading countries and the weakening of the ruble provide strong support to Russian gold mining companies. (...) In the segment with large market capitalization, our favorite is Polymetal, and among companies with low market capitalization - Petropavlovsk. the benefit of these issuers is due to the stronger growth potential of their stock quotes in the short and medium term, the level of operational leverage and the potential to increase divi valleys ", - stated in the review," VTB Capital. "
Estimates and recommendations of analysts (prices in US dollars):
Predicted price of the Pole - 100 (current price - 80.65), recommendation - to buy;
Predicted price of the Pole (for stocks, prices in rubles) - 14300 (current price - 11951), recommendation - to buy;
The forecast price of Polymetal (for stocks, prices in pounds sterling) is 22.6 (current price is 17), the recommendation is to buy;
The forecast price of Highland Gold (for stocks, prices in pounds sterling) is 3.5 (current price is 2.36); recommendation is to buy;
The forecast price of Petropavlovsk (for stocks, prices in pensions) is 52 (current price is 25), the recommendation is to buy.
27 ?????? 2020 ???? 13:30
"??? ???????" ?????? ???????????? ??? GDR ?????? ? ????? Polymetal ?? "????????" ????? ?????????? ???????
(???????? 3-? ?????, ????????? ???????)
"??? ???????" ??????????? ?????????? ???? ????? ? ?????????? ???????????? ???????? (GDR) ????????????? ???????????????? ???????? ??, ?????????? ? ?????? ???????????.
?? ?????? ?????????? ??? ?????????? ???????????? ???????? (GDR) ??? "?????" (MOEX: PLZL) ? ????? Polymetal (MOEX: POLY) ???????????? ???? ???????? ? "???????" ?? "????????".
??? ????? Highland Gold ? Petropavlovsk ???? ???????????? ???????????? "????????".
???????? ???????? ???????? ??? ?? ?????? ? 2020-2022 ????? ?? 16-43% - ?? $1600 ?? ????? ? ??????? ???? ? ?? $1900 ?? ????? ? ?????????. ? 2022 ???? ????????? ??????? ????????? ??????? ??????? ?? ?????? $2280 ?? ?????.
"??????????????? ????????? ?????????? ????????, ??????????????? ???????????? ??????? ?????, ? ?????????? ????? ????????? ?????? ????????? ?????????? ???????????????? ?????????. (. . .) ? ???????? ???????? ? ??????? ???????? ?????????????? ????? ????????? ???????? Polymetal, ? ????? ???????? ? ?????? ???????? ?????????????? - Petropavlovsk. ???????????? ? ?????? ?????? ????????? ??????????? ????? ??????? ??????????? ????? ????????? ?? ????? ? ????????????? ? ????????????? ???????????, ??????? ????????????? ????????? ? ??????????? ????????? ??????????", - ????????? ? ?????? "??? ????????".
?????? ? ???????????? ?????????? (???? ? ???????? ???):
?????????? ???? ????? - 100 (??????? ???? - 80,65), ???????????? - ????????;
?????????? ???? ????? (??? ?????, ???? ? ??????) - 14300 (??????? ???? - 11951), ???????????? - ????????;
?????????? ???? Polymetal (??? ?????, ???? ? ?????? ??????????) - 22,6 (??????? ???? - 17), ???????????? - ????????;
?????????? ???? Highland Gold (??? ?????, ???? ? ?????? ??????????) - 3,5 (??????? ???? - 2,36), ???????????? - ????????;
?????????? ???? Petropavlovsk (??? ?????, ???? ? ??????) - 52 (??????? ???? - 25), ???????????? - ????????.
Google translate:
”In the segment with large market capitalization, our favorite is Polymetal, and among companies with low market capitalization - Petropavlovsk. the benefit of these issuers is due to the stronger growth potential of their stock quotes in the short and medium term, the level of operational leverage and the potential to increase divi.. ", - VTB Capital. "... The forecast price of Petropavlovsk is 52 (current price is 25), the recommendation is to buy.”
Article in russian April 27:
http://www.finmarket.ru/shares/analytics/5225347