Member Info for Webba1

The reporting season is coming and alongside that there is the opportunity to discuss divi and share buybacks. as you mention in any economic downturn the value offers grow share- the relationships these guys have with airports where they have to deliver passenger volumes to reduce the operating costs (so airports can commercialise the passengers) mean that along with increased capacity with new planes more efficient planes we will see total pax growth- the challenge is can they profitably grow the income per seat. i think this will get well into 550 territory in the run to results. but DYOR

Great news. Delays and disruption mean lots of tie spent in the SSP outlets

Asos poor - whilst Next are booming, strange comparison. SSP are in a position where passenger volume and therefore traffic continues to grow globally between 3-6% depending on region. Forecast to grow 15-20% in APAC and India with an emerging middle class, major acquisition and a JV in these markets.. US market recovery and domestic travel with a market share gain over the last 10 years with huge further growth. UK and Continental Europe benefitting from short haul discounters with materially larger seat capacity - all driving growth. Consumers protect that holiday - have done and will continue to. The dynamic airline pricing mean there are deals all round- Jet 2 plastered all over with £39 flights.

I prefer no posts than the polarised posts i am going to have to filter. Every time i come in here to learn some thing i get one doom merchant who must be fun to be around and another who is probably the same person working for a different company "recommending to the moon"

2% swing is enough? doesnt sound worth the hassle and risk? You've got a CEO who is buying big on top of any share awards, he clearly sees a plan. i work for a FTSE business and our CEO hasnt ever supported the price with that level of activity.

So i am conflicted. I think this is a good business in travel having jettisoned the dreadful HS business that was a drag on brand and capital. It has positioned itself as the CTN offer of choice in travel and has targeted successfully Boots in UK air with add ons to grow new category and sales. It also has a very successful Marketing proposition as brands (coke etc) want to get the visibility into those great locations and will pay fees and offer volume rebates on the back of it. As it grows into other markets it has limited competition - Relay and 7/11 only really recognisable ones and dont have the same model. They have done well at keeping the market to themselves by preventing new entrants and are growing rapidly internationally. This at this price should be a no brainer. However i'm conflicted as the US business is not a "subsidary" and the accounting issues how they treat supplier income will likely be the same across the business so i am a little concerned that they have been treating fees as one offs or in the year monies when they are either based on hitting volumes over a term or even worse, an annual fee taken as a one off...... This smells a little like Tesco a few years ago but it is a big part of what WHS do so i dont get how they can have made such a basic error - hence my conflict that there is more risk vs reward. Fundamentals as a focused business are great and at this Mkt Cap i'd look at a merger/ acquisition/ PE swoop

So TFS goes live on the 14th. at the top end of the valuation.

SSP own 50.01% so that's a £600m + element of the business that contributes about 15% of Ebitda. Rest of the business worth £700m

Capacity constrained impacting on the market from an aircraft perspective doesnt consider net gains of space and pricing impacts. Material cost reduction plan from the group announced at trading update.

Exactly a 5.4% divi is not to be sniffed at and SP is at a bargain.... even the most unfavourable have this at £3.20

To be brutal on Wizz- its a tight model and the moment they struggled with the engine maintenance it was time to run. still a 13x Valuation vs our 10 x and likely 7 x on End of year forecasts. posititvely passengers growth still there in the market and the demand is outstripping supply. airports forecasting decent growth as passengers protect the summer break. EZJ holidays is a master stroke. Some real value in this that the board needs to think how it recognises!

Your rev forecast of 47m assumes nothing for the next 6 months

AGM on the 5th June. I'd expect some form of trading update as well. Good time to share where we are with contracts.

With such a weighting to H2 you'd be mad to signal a buy back. That if it comes with an enhanced Divi and buyback. However the "what to do with the Holiday business" is more interesting - still not really seeing the benefit in the PE.

STT - just read your sell to cover drivel. As a LTIP recipient at another business, your income tax bill is stil at the prevailing % irrespective of the value of the share. i.e if the share price is 10p or £1 you'll still need to "sell to cover to pay your income tax gain on the share price" the spot price makes no real difference you'll still sell 47% of the shares to cover your income tax bill. The stranger point here is that you are then liable for capital gains tax on the share gain which is why it doesnt make initial sense selling to cover at what is viewed as a low share price as you'll get hit again on capital gains when you sell at a profit. hope that helps?

Yes, Easter will be big- the issue that the shorts are hoping is the year on year comparables will look rubbish because of the easter timings! hopefully investors can work this out and this starts to re rate to reflect the holiday business which is superb and built from scratch. Thats why im here!!

Its a big bet- pretty big short overall. Id think they view the Indian / Pakistan instability and all other global issues as a problem for air travel. That and Easter in H2 will depress the results potentially, they will be hoping that summer isnt as strong as forecast.

Big cajones as even if the H2 impact is large, the oil price drop will be a massive plus to operational costs and the holiday business will be continuing from strength to strength.

GLG still have a 0.5% short interest - wonder if they are urgently exiting....

Activist investor’s play for SSP Group sets stage for takeover: Activist investor Irenic Capital Management is building a stake in SSP Group, the UK operator of food and beverage outlets in travel locations worldwide, and plans to push the Upper Crust owner to boost its profitability, setting the stage for a private equity takeover. Irenic has amassed around a 2% stake in SSP, reports the FT. The New York-based hedge fund is pushing SSP to boost its profit margins, arguing that its share price could be worth double its current valuation. The activist, which plans to continue buying shares, has met on several occasions with management but has yet to outline specific demands to the company, two people familiar with the matter told the FT. The investor has previously targeted Wagamama owner The Restaurant Group (TRG) in the UK, which was sold to Apollo in 2023. Irenic declined to comment. SSP said: “We are in constant dialogue with all of our investors, and welcome their feedback and views. We are entirely focused on delivering progress against our clear strategic priorities in order to deliver sustainable growth and returns for all of SSP’s stakeholders.” Shares in SSP, led by chief executive Patrick Coveney, closed at 150p yesterday afternoon (Thursday, 1 May), giving the company a market value of £1.2bn. Coveney said on an earnings call in December: “While the pace of transition from covid recovery to a business with demonstrably strong returns has been fast, it hasn’t been fast enough.” Irenic, which manages a fund worth around $1.4bn, is one of several activist hedge funds recently launched by alumni of Elliott Management, the world’s largest activist investor. Irenic was co-founded in 2021 by Adam Katz, who spent nearly a decade at Elliott, and Andy Dodge, who previously worked at Indaba Capital Management, a US-based value investor. In 2023, Irenic built a stake in TRG. Irenic, alongside fellow activist Oasis Capital Management, agitated for changes, including asset sales. Within months TRG had agreed a £506mn sale to Apollo. While SSP has a big presence in Europe, its business in India could prove particularly lucrative. The company has plans to publicly list the unit, a joint venture called TFS, later this year. Investors expect the venture to be valued at around a £1bn valuation upon its initial public offering. Irenic’s shareholding in SSP currently sits below the UK disclosure threshold of 5%, at which point it would be required to notify regulators.

Can't see what they are yet but 2 x 250,000 gone through- someone exiting stage left or accumulating ahead of the various trade shows

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1069434/hvivo-ceo-on-record-fy24-revenue-ebitda-as-expansion-strategy-pays-off-1069434.html

Debt free. Acquisition from cash. The biggest risk here is it gets bought out. small beer for a big pharma. my price target is 25p but that's a DYOR. only shame is there was no step up in divi which would have helped.