Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I think you will find that the pre dilution high was 727p in May 2018.
Google take LSE data and they have adjusted their historical data to account for the rights issue.
If you head over to Yahoo, you will find the pre rights prices.
So for the diluted price to equal the pre rights high its gotta be around 440p. Therefore double and a bit the current price.
As a Pilot I can tell you that these aircraft have been stored in accordance with the manufacturers guidance.
Return to Service involves very light maintenance and a test flight.
I would expect around 50 man hours per aircraft - this will be a non issue and would probably take around 30 days to complete for all aircraft not flying.
There is real hope now, the vaccines have been proven to work and are suppressing transmission.
As for the travel ban, people are booking anyway and will change plans accordingly, I certainly have and will continue to plan my travel in the hopes that once we are released I will actually have seats for myself and my family in the rush to go.
These results will be better than expected simply because people pay for flights upfront, and alot will be booking to get ahead of the rush.
Digital Nomads are now becoming a thing, 2 of my cousins are now working for London based firms and have moved back to Cape Town permanently. Their requirement is that they are back every couple of months for team meetings.
They are now earning in GBP and spending in ZAR and once the pandemic is done will now each have 6 long haul flights a year instead of 1.
This sort of shift in behaviour can only be good for airlines - not only will business travel resume, but there will be more long distance cross border commuting.
WJfrancis,
BA are basically a monopoly at Heathrow, a very profitable monopoly.
As a long term investor in IAG and by extension BA - I'm interested not in growth but in profit as profit drives dividends.
Dividend reinvestment works best with a low or slowly growing share price and as of right now these shares are one of the best bargains on the map for investment over the very long term.
Luddite - totally agree that for day trading the stamp duty applied would be a problem, however, long term holders would benefit from greater price stability for their holdings. As I sit in the latter camp I'm all for that, as I don't trade in or out of this stock - I'm 38 and all shares bought are in my isa for ever. At this price IAG is a bargain - even more so if BA is carved off as I will move my holding to BA and never sell....
Actually, in the airline world that isn't necessarily true as when you pass a certain size the benefits of scale reduce.
For years IAG has been profitable because BA have delivered the bulk of that profit. Yes, constituent parts of IAG like Aer Lingus have benefited from the buying power of IAG as a group - but don't kid yourself, that buying power comes mainly from BA being part of IAG - not the other way around.
The benefits of a spin out of BA far outweigh the disadvantages for shareholders.
The big losers on a spin out would be those that hold onto IAG shares instead of taking the BA option.
This is brilliant news for investors, should see the share price surge as the aggregate parts of IAG are worth substantially more than the whole.
British shareholders would most likely be pooled into BA, which being the most profitable part of BA is a great thing - so it's a double win for British Investors.
May not be the bloodbath everyone thinks, looking like trump is going to open the USA to travel now - and we all know what he thinks of COVID.
BA will do well out of the US routes re opening, almost certainly better than out of the short haul fleet.
Its Thalidomide, and it was a drug that was mis prescribed which was very new at the time.
In fact Thalidomide is still used today as a safe and effective treatment for leprosy and some of the effects of AIDS.
It is just strictly controlled rather than over the counter.
As this vaccine is being watched by the world, I doubt Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca would put their reputation on the line by marketing a dangerous vaccine - regardless of any immunity from prosecution granted by the government.
Actually this business should be worth more than 15B by next year.
Cheaper fleet,
Lower fuel use,
Cheaper staff,
Weaker competition
Given that IAG generate profits in normal times of over 3B euros, 3 quid a share starts to look like good value, 1.6 quid a share looks insanely cheap - but we obviously need to be flying at capacity to get back to earning 12 quid a share.
This is where the opportunity or loss lies, we who are long believe that this pandemic will be over soon. The market is attempting to price this share based on incomplete knowledge and as a result can only value it on current performance with a sprinkle of future potential.
Why would 10% dilution drop the share price to 40p?
Let's get one thing straight, the CINE debt load is not 8Billion, its around half that. They are now required to report Lease liabilities as debt - if you rent a house, would you consider your rental contract as debt? No its a living expense, same here - rent is simply a business expense.
In 2019 CINE paid back 750m in debt and remained reasonably profitable.
Once this crisis is over, the fundamentals of Cineworlds business will not have changed. People will flock to cinemas, studios will show blockbusters, we will hug and kiss our families and some of us will have made a substantial amount of money betting on the future of CINE.
Pandatron, re read the post.
4 engined aircraft doesn’t mean 4 aircraft with engines, it means that they have a Small quantity of aircraft with 4 engines.
This is important since engines are what cost the most money when running a fleet of aircraft.
Each engine on a modern jet is worth around £10-15million, costs £2500 an hour in maintenance And burns around £1200 worth of fuel per hour.
The fewer engines you have in your fleet, the better, and since bA have retired 36 747s they now have 144 fewer engines to worry about.
If IAG call for another rights issue, it will be to buy up competitors. We are now 12 months into the pandemic - the average timespan for a pandemic is 18 months, we have a vaccine and a clear timespan to herd immunity now in the developed world.
The fundamentals with IAG are:
- Only a small fleet of 4 engined aircraft left in fleet (lower cost base)
- Much more efficient fleet going forward, now with a higher load factor (more profitable)
- The mix in the fleet is now favouring more modern and newer airframes (less maintenance cost and less downtime)
- The cost of fuel going forward will be substantially lower as I am sure IAG would have hedged their future fuel costs at the lowest point in the market (I think this was why they took a 1 Billion Euro hit on their current hedging)
- Demand for air travel is artificially suppressed
- Staffing costs are now going to be more aligned with the market in general as they have cleared out legacy crew.
All in all, a leaner, meaner, faster responding airline with years of growth ahead of it and alot of new aircraft on order.