Member Info for Washerupper

Great find and thank you for sharing

That’s a circa 850k shares purchase, which I don’t recall seeing go through. Good to see.

Lots of positives to take from this short note, leaving me reassured ahead of the next trading update.

Totally understandable, but I would sit tight. The company is doing well. I think we all recognise that the suitability of the aim will be under review, and a Nasdaq listing (either joint or as an alternative) seems obvious once appropriate. It is operationally a US company after all. A takeover or being taken private (with a view to a US listing) are other potentials. Being taken private or sole Nasdaq listing has obvious drawbacks for uk PIs re ISAs

Sorry, the No was about the £4 exit strategy

No

The Hardman report suggests a fair value of £1.77 per share!

I feel your pain, but be patient. This will either re-rate during this year, be taken over or be taken private (I hope not the latter). The small market cap and low volumes does make it difficult for II. A duel Nasdaq listing would be good, but I’m not sure what hurdles need to be overcome for that.

They reiterated their guidance from last year. I thought they would upgrade it to 4x fwd sales, but they have left it at 120p. I missed the investors call but will look at a recording shortly.

They have maintained their 120p price target by pulling back the sales multiple used from 4x to 3.2x fwd sales. I guess they think 120p is enough of a stretch from the current price. It feels like continued patience will be required here, but a very pleasing update nevertheless.

Top 2 holdings (6.3%) of portfolio are up 11.6% and 12.8% today. This IT is well positioned to benefit from current growth trends and offers an attractive discount to participate. Excellent track record. Strong buy

That was the price target based on 4x forward (2024) sales. It may well be upgraded further to 4x 2025 fwd sales once the final 2023 figures are out. This must go higher this year. I’m looking for min 85p by year end and £1.50 next year assuming progress continues

There is usually a trading statement in January ahead of full year results

S&N has just agreed to buy Cartiheal for £144m payable now and a further £120m subject to achieving annual sales of $100m pa within 10 years. Cartiheal only got FDA approval last year for Agili-C and will have modest current sales. Does anyone with knowledge of Orthopaedics know whether Agili-C is new competition for dCell and BioRinse in the orthopaedics space or whether they do different things? Not sure whether to take the S&N purchase as evidence of the significant under value of TRX or a competition risk to TRX, or both.

I think you’ve done well. With capacity and orders in place to achieve profitability, products in demand and strong margins, this should see a significant re-rating over the next 3-6 months. This assumes that there is not a significant dilution to raise capital, but it shouldn’t be needed.

Investor presentation today is quite bullish about a cancer vaccine (bespoke to patient) , so Avacta could be looking at a relatively small window as a cancer treatment if successful at all.

Trading up over 6% as a positive reaction to investor presentation and pipeline update. I think we will see a strong run from Moderna, which will aid SMT recovery. Time will tell.

Any views of this in terms of risk to Avacta?

Excellent posts Agricore. Thank you

I too have a sizeable holding and the share price is frustrating. However, it is a small, loss making company, with a negative cashflow and it has debt. Despite what we might think about prospects and management delivery to date, these characteristics weigh more heavily in the current market. Also, its size makes it very tough for a new II to take a position. I expect a number of PIs have also just got bored and moved on. Hopefully the Tuesday update will give some fresh life to the SP.