Member Info for Warno01

South Sudan is at the extreme end of any expansion wish list. Of course the BoD should be looking out for new opportunities, however there's the major challenge of integrating the Exxon and Petronas assets into the business, which will take at least 12-18 months to build efficiencies, look at structures/resources etc. Any expansion beyond that needs to be low risk. 4 major strategic focuses: 1) Optimising Nigeria, 2) Starting and growing Niger Output, 3) Integrating new Exxon/Petronas operations, 4) Deveoping overall internal structure and managing operations. All of these are chunky. Sure, it would be great to bring more on board but any transitiion and integration of companies (and company cultures) is a long road and requires lot of focus. I believe looking beyond these is for 2-3 years time. Happy to be proven wrong, but there is long history of mergers/acquisitions/TOs/RTOs where companies struggle to integrate businesses and the company is in a great position to see strong growth in output and profits without needing more just yet. I certainly wouldn't be interested in South Sudan yet until it settles down significantly.

One of the challenges posed by listing on any stock exchange is the need to report at a certain frequency. The largest companeies quarterly because they have the internal teams, reporting structures, investor relations and external resource to allow this. Reporting is onerous in terms of the amount of paperwork required and you will hear may FTSE 100/250/ S&P 500 CEOs say how much time it takes up out of their weekly activities. A company the size of JLP does not need to report quarterly. It does not merit it and would be a drain on resources when they are small and trying to grow. 6 months is sufficient like the vast majority of smaller companies. They always have the option to providing a trading update if performance changes in either direction.

That's a pretty destructive suggestion which doesn't benefit anyone at all.

For what it's worth, and I'm happy to wait.
I personally, believe this will have a massive spike, large sell off and then steady growth. Good news doesn't stick at the moment.
So based on all the great work by others and my own work, I reckon the following:
37p back on the market
Spike up to 55p intraday
Revert back down to sub 35p within full trading days (i.e. outside of Xmas/New Year window)
Long steady climb from 30-35p up towards 65-69p range over 3 months.

I anticipate being hugely wrong . But confident that by end of 2023 it will be north of 75p.

Duster, leave it out. It's not the first time in stock exchange history and won't be the last. If things are negative, the price will drop on return to trading, if no positive it will rise or no change.
Stop carping on. It's a huge transaction involving 3 companies, plus finance facilities. Missing a deadline is a sign of ensuring all parties are agreed and aligned with the prospectus, not a screw up. It's actually good they corrected it. It still says on or around, so 3-4 days either side is fair enough. I'm sure they're very aware of it.
I do hope you are not massively exposed on this because your posts suggest so

Has anyone received their capital return and dividend yet? No sign with DeGiro after 4 days.

Has it got snything to do with LCM?

Agadem, at GBP2.00 a share, I'd be a very happy man indeed. It's my 5th largest share holding in portfolio at an average of 9.68p. Prior to Exxon, I was hopeful of a 50p target over 18 months. Certainly see 75p+ as possible. North of that seems a bit fantastical until Niger starts pumping out. Only risks seem geopolitical and perception of the stock. Very keen to hear of debt refinancing because I think at levels of hundreds of millions it's a millstone with interest rates due to rise. Very happy to wait and see and anticipate a relisting pre Xmas with a bow on it. The one thing I'd like to see is other Savannah senior management to the fore. AK doing a very good job, but it feels like he's in control of all and need to see more of others to understand depth of expertise which he talks about a lot.

Paying a dividend out of debt is not what we want. We want to reduce debt and improve financing. The share growth if all comes together will dwarf the impact of a dividend. I really don't give a car about 1.4p per share dividend. Give me transformational share growth of 60p plus share. Dividends are a distraction.

Good to see the support and rise in the last 7-10 days and pushing up to old pre COVID (pre Burford Muddy Waters) levels.
confident that returns in the next two quarters will be very strong, with a growing pipeline of cases.
Really keen to hear about the 2nd fund. It's been on the cars for 6-9 months but sounds like it can only be started/vested when 1st fund gets to 80% of funds deployed. (Have I got that right based on recent presentations?)
And please don't look at the LIT board on ADVFN - complete waste of time taken over by 2-3 bots.

Surfie - here's your answer on a Golden Cross. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/121114/what-difference-between-golden-cross-and-death-cross-pattern.asp

For info in over 2/3 of golden cross cases on when the 50 EMA goes above the 200 EMA, the share has a prolonged rise. I don't think this applies to Burford at the moment. I'm not a chartist and don't follow charts. However Golden Crosses are good markers historically. But there isn't one for for Burford on the 50/200 EMA, not since 2020.

I have a huge believer in Dev and the category. The technology will have a profound impact on individuals and the learning environment, mostly good, with the odd big bump too. Feel that this will rise to 50p+ before end of year and then 65p in first quarter of 2022.
Fascinated to hear from on anyone following Swazers Charts. I questioned him on Twitter on his Dev opinion/forecasts based on Technical analsyis. (which appear to be less like forecasts and more like it could go up or it could go down). Surprisingly blocked for asking a question and then accused of being entitled. Couldn't be further from the truth. For someone like him who encourages participation and learning, he's very quick to avoid questions with barbs and accusations.
I'm agnostic on charting/TA but keep my mind open to consider trends and patterns. Simply interested to hear his thinking, not methodology.
As for Dev, I see it rising based on the category growth, new agreements and adoption, not chart analysis. WIll hold on to it so long as it's above 25p. Will revisit the story to see if anything has changed if it falls that far. However I see 50p as more likely than 25p

Golden Cross on the 100/50 MMA basis? from a few days ago? I don't see it as a key reference. What's your thinking on it?

There was a 100/50 Golden Cross in May and did little after it and one back in June 2020 but only very, very gentle rise on the back of it. The 200/50 MMA generally a stronger reference for me. No 200/50 Golden Cross since May.

Thanks Billgreen. Tried that and it didn't work and tried again too. Never mind. Agree with you on web. A mobile function is good but why not both. Most investors are generally 35+ too so natural predisposition to online/desktop consumption rather than mobile.

I've been in TMT since $4.00 a share selling out at $9.00. Saw the move up to $11+ and though it was high. Excited to see the price drop to the sub $9 level. Spent the weekend trying to get the Primary Bid app to work but it simply didn't and their customer service team couldn't solve. No page on which to enter payment details for me. Tried without VPN, with VPN, tried on Apple and Android. Really disappointed and actually more surprised to see the Primary Bid placing under subscribed. Maybe I can pick up for less in the normal market. Suffice to say I think the Primary Bid concept is great for retail investors and have used for 3 subscriptions. But the app only payment has been a failure and the lack of website options is poor. Hopefully they can fix soon because it would be worth investing in the parent company otherwise

Gtx1, how do you know about an IC write up this week?

Confidentiality order is promising for Burford.

There is a lot of negativity and questions behind the owners of Draft Kings linked back to some dubious credentials of a Bulgarian owner with criminal ties. Such a takeover would legitimise Draft Kings. Think Entain can do better.

Thanks for correcting me. Apologies and to Teela Brown too. I read the Arthur Sants article without checking. Even better.
Strong buy it is!

For clarity, ST saying that LIT is a hold for him based on today's article. He was a buy in July. https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2021/09/21/litigation-capital-management-waiting-for-insolvency-wave/

He's saying that revenues will come further down the line. The 150p price target is retained based on his July article where he upgraded from 140p. No Strong Buy however.

Yuri, i hope you've read up on Burford, Manolete, RPS, private companies in this space as well as LIT. Potentially agree to disagree but when you have $330m AUM plus a further larger fund about to be invested and circa 15-20% returns on those AUM over the next 2 years, you get lumpy returns and transformation of the SP. This ligitation industry will never have smooth revenue flows, but as litigation increases and becomes a risk for companies, this industry will build. Large increase in profits, despite 2 difficult years of pandemic, yet realisations have slowed due to pandemic, actually means much more is to come. The industry revenue model is different to other investments and it's something you've got to live with either buy into or ignore. Personally, I will hold this for the next 5-10 years since I believe LIT is one of a number of public companies in this space and they are likely to be pushing a $500m to $1m MCAP in that time frame.