Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The unemployment claim numbers are due this Thursday.
Estimates are from 300,000 to 2.5 million extra unemployment claims.
Last report was 281,000 up 70,000 from the previous report.
People are losing jobs left right and centre. A restaurant chain in NY just announced 1,200 lay offs with no severance.
Just take a moment to reflect on the magnitude of that number if it comes in 1M plus.
Great that China is getting back online but overseas demand for their goods will likely be muted. No doubt the economy will bounce back it’ll take time.
B....I admire your half full outlook but I am a tad more pessimistic although that maybe due to being stuck in my apartment for the last week and probably the next 6 with only outings to Starbucks, which is now closed and supermarket.
What I do know is :
1. Auto plants are shut and two of the big three here are talking about retrofitting the closed plants to make ventilators to address the acute shortage in US.
2. You don't just switch back on production of a shuttered plant.
3. The demand side of the economy I suspect won't be there for cars at the same level as pre virus. I doubt once a semblance of normality returns people will be rushing to buy new cars . I know auto revenue doesn't kick in until 2021.
4. Trucking fleets here in US are still operating as the majority of goods ( I got that from a CNN report) are transported around the country that way, albeit at reduced levels. Maybe wishful thinking that whilst fleets are idle they will be having Guardian fitted.
The bottom line is that we just don't know and all guesswork. Just have to hope that SM have the cash in the bank and cash flow to survive. This should be right up PMC alley given his background.
Sincerely hope everyone on the board is well and stays safe. Myself and wife are ok as I stocked up on Hobnobs and PG Tips last week so good for the foreseeable future!!
Take care.
S7....lucky if there is a bounce today as futures in US are limit down overnight so stopped trading when they dropped 5% indicating another open for DJI down 1,000 points.
Will get a better sense where the market will be when Premarket trading in individual shares starts at 6am EST it’s going to be another volatile day. Suitably understated.
SM2...No surprise about Europe.
Seems a compromise here in US with a rolling partial shutdown agreed although currently light on details of the agreement. One feels they may just be delaying the inevitable total shutdown for a period but hope that's not the case.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/uaw-detroit-automakers-negotiate-rotating-partial-shutdowns-of-us-plants.html
NY mayor is talking about a "shelter in place order" being issued for a period of time. Basically means stay at home except for essential trips....medical, check in on older family members, supermarket trips etc. As usual seems to be a difference of opinion between NYC and NY Governor office.
It's a ******* over here.
Schools closed for weeks, loads of people working from home, recession predicted if not already there, hospitality industry getting creamed (US is a service / consumer economy predominately) CDC recommending no gatherings above 50 people...I could go on. Went for a walk around the city yesterday and loads of restaurants closed....Saturday night in NYC...
They are only really just getting testing going here so positive test numbers are expected to ramp up in the near future. Until there is a handle on the testing numbers buckle up markets won't stabilize....imo
Maybe time to start looking at some bargains.
GLA
WASHINGTON, March 13 - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Friday approved Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc's coronavirus test, which would allow the firm to increase capacity to 1.4 million tests a week, an official in U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said.
Chris....a lot to do with uncertainty.....500 Corona cases reported in US and 16M people quarantined in Italy......markets think something is wrong there.
Interesting thing on oil is US is one of the most expensive producers in world and also one of the largest producers and now net exporter. Think Vlad is ok with that? Coincidence that US slapped sanctions on Roseneft chairman 20 Feb and Russia walks from table with Saudi shortly after?
Dangerous to join the dots but more than basic demand supply this time me thinks.
+100% so far today. They also got CE Mark approval a couple of days ago which essentially means they can sell in countries that require CE Mark i.e. Europe. Did that in pretty quick time about a week.
Loads of Pharma rushing tests out.
Looked at some research I had done on the past on US school bus market and seems that the services are largely influenced by local independent school boards, so this would support Glandore point about independence despite head office mandates.
Red - can you point me in the direction of your reference on number of Coach UDSA school buses? I looked at their website but obviously I can't read!!!
Napzapper - was a bit surprised Megabus had adopted as seems a basic solution but haven't finished looking at it. Seem to recall the margins on Megabus like services are thin so could play into decision.
2020.. Statistically should be wary of just looking at a single data point in isolation as could be an outlier. I did say maybe a proxy. Not definitely a proxy.
The more data points the better. Take Toll / Coach USA and any others that we get granular insight to and you get a blended take up rate.
As an aside I thought you had an issue with the fleet numbers that SEE reported as you thought they were understating them? If my memory is correct then how can the company be transparent? You are now ok with the accuracy of numbers they report?
Thanks for the report reading over coffee tomorrow.