Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I've been thinking about doubling down on this stock since the rights issue but haven't done it... yet.
I had a look at how Synthomer's bonds trade today.
https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/xs2194288390-synthomer-plc-3-875-20-25
The bonds have recovered to the same value as June '22, suggesting that the company isn't going to go bust. This also means the effective interest rate payable is less on new financing. That's quite a strong argument for the equity isn't it? The bond market is normally the smart guys, not dumb retail like me.
Also - can anyone link me to a some clear figures for what the company's balance sheet will look like after the rights issue and after the disposal of business units that is ongoing?
I will be voting for the Phoenix resolutions, not because I support them particularly, but because I've been unhappy with the management for a while now, I'd like them to push back more aggressively with the CMA and to pay a dividend. I can't say that Phoenix have been terribly successful with Hornby, but I still am ready for a change.
You can read the two sides of the story here....
https://www.dignityplc.co.uk/news-media/news/press-releases/2021-03-30/2035/publication-of-circular-and-notice-of-general-meeting/
https://www.phoenixassetmanagement.com/news/36/
My suspicion is that a lot of the recent selling has been from convertible bondholders cashing out, I've been seeing a lot of conversions recently and I think most would only go through with the conversion in order to sell. The pace seems to be accelerating as the share price declines and the company has more legal drama.
As long as this company keeps mining at $1900 it can't help but succeed, that gives us $330,000,000 extra profit every year! I'm still comfortable being heavily invested in POG, although I sold 1/3 of my investment last time we were in the mid 20s. I'm tempted to buy more now that we are down at these levels, but I think I'm overexposed to POG as it is.
I think we'll be back in the high 30s by Christmas (TM), one positive set of results will make a big difference. While I'm making predictions, Biden will win, Gold will spend half of next year above $2000 and bitcoin will break its all time high.
I think anyone taking profits here is short changing themselves.
The gold price being $300 higher than previous years means an increase in cash generation of at least $150m. That must translate to a billion dollar market cap eventually. With current gold price my target would be 45+.
If I was running the company I would be looking to buy back some of it's own bonds, especially the convertibles. I have seen other companies including genel energy try this manoeuvre.
Every day that the gold price is 1520 this company generates $300,000 more in cashflow than it did in half 1. That's 112 million per year.
Made a small buy at 67. Looking forward to hearing the early results of the phase III trial of QPI-1002, I think it is hugely important. A successful phase III trial could point towards it being a major drug, just short of blockbuster status. That would deliver huge revenues for a small company like Silence and also demonstrate a proven ability to deliver mass market drugs.
That said, things are looking optimistic if we can get the refinancing of IRC done.
>It is odd regarding the depressed SP given the first of the Pox Hubs is firing on all cylinders
I'm v concerned about the IRC refinancing. There is a crisis in the corporate bond market in Asia making refinancing hard and IRC really need this deal to go ahead. If it is rejected what can IRC and POG do? We would need to find a lot of money very quickly. The fact that the refinancing hasn't been agreed yet might indicate there is some problem, because it would have been a lot better to have agreed and signed it all off by now.
I have some questions about this company because I'm considering buying at the moment. I was hoping someone in the know could enlighten me.
-Quark pharma says that they presented abstracts about QPI-1002 at two conferences recently. Has anyone heard anything about this or about these results?
-Is the chemical structure of QPI-1002 and other silence candidates an official secret or is it described in some patent documents that I can't find at the moment. I'm trying to work out whether antisense drugs are each completely unique or based on a modular pattern.
Thanks for your postings.
I have a few questions about the loan guarantee..
-If IRC can't agree a new loan soon does that mean its existing credit facility will be closed and POG will be on the hook?
-If IRC can't finance itself and POG has to bail it out will POG receive all the equity in IRC?
The gold market is in a good position right now, but I am concerned about the loan guarantee.
Thanks all
I'm planning to vote for the rebels. I never wanted the new board of Vekselberg cronies in the first place and I think that the largest owners should have a strong say in the management. I don't really care who CABS and Slevin are. It could be Pavel and Hambro, it could be our new Kazakh friend. Either way is fine, my only concern is that they might take the company private in the future. I haven't received the voting corporate action yet (I'm with AJ bell) is that normal? I want to vote already. Also, I sold 1/5 of my holding this week because I don't understand what drives the share price of this crazy stock (after it jumped before the IRC 'news'), I wanted to take a little profit and it was too big a chunk of my portfolio. Still think there is an undervalued business underneath all of this drama. Best wishes to all here, thanks for your informative comments.
I reckon 450,000 is the production figure, I think the underground mining started so we should be up near the top range of the guidance. Gold price was about 1270 on average in H2, I made some back of the fag packet calculations and reckon that would have meant about �45m in profit before the recent refinancing. With the refinancing I think we will post �35m profit. That will be a little underwhelming, but with recent high gold prices and underground mining we might have some very positive projections for 2018. I think share price will remain above 7.5 or so from here on. I'm very interested to know how much of IRC's debt we are still guaranteeing as well, if we can get that down and offload IRC we should escape all our own debt troubles.
'"Is it possible that they intend to use $100m to pay off the convertible bondholders, which iirc they can do after 18th March 2018?" No, as I have frequently stated, POG cannot redeem these bonds, unless certain conditions are met, and neither of these is likely to happen any time soon.' Couldn't the company just buy these bonds on the open market? Is there a clause preventing that?
Thanks all for your replies in this thread.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-10/gold-futures-4-million-ounce-trade-triggers-sell-off-chart I read this article and wondered.. How many institutions or individuals in the world can sell 4 million ounces of notional gold? That's POG's production for 8 years or more! That's half of Venezuelas soon-to-be-former gold reserves. Does anyone who knows more about this than me have any comment?
I imagine the management are doing the bond issuance now for two reasons. Firstly to reduce the effective debt burden by taking advantage of the current low yield environment (while they can, it won't last). Secondly the management are effectively controlled by the Russian oligarchs that have taken over POG. The convertible bonds are an obstacle to the takeover because they are effectively a reserve of shares not under Vekselberg's control and therefore a threat to his control of the company. Moving against the convertible bonds could be good for smaller investors like us as well, it reduces future dilution of shareholdings if POG's good performance of the last two years continues. I'm happy to stay on board as long as the real debt burden doesn't rise significantly. I don't really like being a hapless passenger on Vekselberg's ship but I think I like where the ship is going.