Member Info for Vulcan998

it is a massive deal - needs a lot of funding but benefits from the deal look sizeable. Phoenix is becoming a giant.

Massive increase in profit and free cash. Dividend increased again. BUT share price only up a little........
Happy to be invested here though

but who knows!

Ian67 think that is too high at the moment - more £10M -£20M in 6 month time frame. BUT if we sell something that could change.

I think Anitsoq and TBS are excellent resources BUT Alba do not seem to have the money or expertise to progress (unfortunately)......again they may sell on OR even better partner / farm out to someone otherwise they will remain just possible assets

My thoughts on share price
HH1 production will pay for further wells at HH BUT I suspect Alba may sell share of HH if offered enough cash
Production from HH2Z will give a profit to Alba of £1 - £1.5M valuing Alba around £10 - £15M so double our current share price.
BUT Alba will use this money to progress Clogau.......

So share price may double in the next few months BUT selling HH will cause a spike. OR people may start to look at HH and value the reserves that can be accessed in the PEDL and then the share price may go up a lot higher (ie likely income x 10 years)
As long as HH2Z flows more than 750 BBL/day there is no downside I hope

Mullins suspect we will see:

HH1 = 1.5 tankers a day average
HH2Z = probably 5 a day perhaps up to 10 a day if results amazing

16 will need more wells (which are planned and approved)

at least the share price is a little higher at the moment........

Simple calculations indicate that good flows from HH2Z should yield £1M - £1.5M per annum to Alba PROFIT. This ignores HH1 which will continue chugging away and (I assume) will pay for other wells to be drilled and for further site works.
This implies a valuation for Alba around £15M not the current £6M........so not sure why the price is down again. I already have a lot of these shares and have lost a lot of money over the last 4 years or so. Not sure if I am brave enough to average down some more.

Agreed Bladehater. As I have just written on UKOG BB the Weald has proved difficult to flow apart from HH1 so we just have to hope the careful approach based on tests and data yields brilliant results here.........the wording of the RNS suggests they expect a good result

whilst I agree the RNS is very positive nothing is certain until the well flows well - unfortunately the Weald oil, with the exception of HH1, has provide very difficult to access and flow. Hopefully the well planned approach followed by UKOG using lots of analysis and data will mean this well will be brilliant but we are not there yet.

3 buy recommendations from brokers this morning but little movement on the half year report.........

any reason for the continual drop in price?
Think they need to communicate some good news.

I would assume we would need EA approval (from the Friday site visit) to start the well testing on HH2Z - do you think we will get an RNS when that happens?

another little burst upwards

will HH2-Z need a new flare stack? I know we are doing gas to wire for some (most?) of the likely gas but I have not seen a new flare stack go onto site in the photos by Adrian et al. Would they use the existing stack for both wells?

it has strong upward movement at the moment........someone is buying in the background

seems a sensible approach - bit of a dip today but it may just be people selling out because it has changed from Miton and is more of an unknown quantity

Indeed GLA. Not sure what to do with this holding - there is another Miton dividend payable I think as part of the takeover but then I am not sure what the future is for Premier Miton.....any thoughts appreciated.

standing by an oil tank which is positive........