Member Info for volmer

Don’t to too critical if nothing arrives tomorrow. Delays happen. If the banks they are dealing with are based on Honk Kong, then anything is possible with the situation there.

No doubt, this company is completely under the radar. Hardly any coverage. This would certainly change with good news.

Yes I agree we have waited a long for the finance negotiations to end. The share price is where it is for a reason. It has climbed recently because there have been buyers, who may be hoping for a successful outcome to the attempt to reschedule the loans that total around $105m, some of which carry an interest rate of 20%.

It's sometimes good to be optimistic about a share we hold. I share many of the views about management, the operations and the gold resource. Having been bitten by too much optimism in the past, I am always looking for the downside as well.

Searching for the downside here, or being pessimistic if you like, there is the possibility that agreement with the lenders may not be reached for some time yet. Too often in the past have delayed results from companies heralded bad news. I am not saying that this is the case here, and I don't expect bad news, but the unexpected has caught me out too often. On top of these issues there is another concern. Even if the debts are rescheduled and the interest rate reduced below 20% on the mezzanine finance, will the company be able to sustain borrowings at this level?

Lee, if the company did not have the debt problem, the history of production problems (that hopefully the new management is dealing with successfully) and a mine life left for 7 yers, I would agree with you about the company being undervalued. As these are outstanding issues or problems, they need to be resolved before such a valuation is justified. In the meantime, we might see a share price of 0.8p again unless good news emerges on the no small matter of the debt.

Looking very good. So the timescale is now mid Jan for trial results, FDA submission 30.6.20, FDA approval hopefully 30.6.21 and sales commencing Q3/Q4 2021. Plenty of time to get in. No hurry.

H5O, I don't think so. It's merely some PI's like myself and a few I know who have been buying. No entity is involved as far as I know.

Do agree there is a s;ight delay in news. Could be a variety of reasons. If a refiinancing is near, then would you wait to announce that before the interims. I think I would.

So many false facts posted here. Point one. The Woodford holding has not been sold but is now managed by Blackrock and Schroders. Point two. Invesco sold and Woodford previously worked for them, so they have simply decided to cut their losses and wash their hands of his past investments for Invesco. Point three. Has no one seen Dragons Den? Directors can only sell shares at the price investors are willing to pay. The directors did not decide to sell at 1p, they were forced into it. Otherwise they would not have got the cash and the company would have run out of money next January. Point four. You cannot blame the AIM market for all investor losses. Well you can but that woud be wrong. The facts were there: cash was running out, there was a Woodford overhang, a placing was planned and communicated and if a market crash comes it often comes in October - it didn't happen this time but it's not a good month to make a placing.

The fact is the company said it would need a placing late in 2019. If investors choose to hold or buy shares when they know a placing is coming that is their decision. Shares prices around a placing normally means cheaper. It's hard but its not always someone else's fault.

One of the mistakes the company made was to advertise the placing six or more months in advance. They have made the same mistake again for 2020. You make a placing when you don't need the money otherwise you get screwed. The Chariman has a background in Corporate Finance and he should go. Big question marks over the FD.

Where does the company go from here? It needs to insist on an upfront payment for any licensing agreement. This would produce extra cash. The technology is good and unique so this should be possible. One or two new licensing agreements in Eurpoe of for XFiltra and we could see some good share price action.

There is a possibility that shareholders might not approve the issue of new shares for the palcing, although I doubt it. If they did the remainaing institutional shareholders could push for a trade sale of the technology or the company. Over £100m has been spent getting the technology to this stage and I think it is worth much more than the current cap of £2.5m.

In December and the New Year we should see a more balanced valuation of the company IMO.

Can't be long now. Surely bank execs coming under pressure to finish this. I don't post too often but nice to see an active BB. Have pencilled in 17,500 for quarter. Too optimistic?

JMumbo, I suspect that a fire sale by Woodford would not easily find institutional buyers. There have been plenty of fire sales in other companies where the holder has decided to dump the shares in the market not having been able to find the institutions.

The problem here is that institutions took shares in the last placing and have seen the value of their investment s halve. They also know management has said that it want to raise £10m. Woodford holding is worth around £5m. £15m is a a lot of money for the market to put up for a company with Xerox’s track record and risks.

The dilemma is the company wants £10m and ata the same time Woodford wants £5m. Which will come first and at what price?

The company has said it will raise funds this year and this price drop could be a precursor to a fund raise.

Puttin that aside what's happening with Woodfords holding?

BNP lawyer was forced to leave over the weekend due his being an activist in the Hong Kong democracy protests. It cant be easy to deal with Banks in Hong Kong at this time. The frech have been back from their holidays for a month now. Surely they want debts like this to be resolved so that they can focus on the coming recession and Brexit. Or is Brexit just an illusion!

An interesting article in the Sunday Telegraph today. Hargreaves Landsdown are talking to Link Fund Solutions about how to cope with investors withdrawal demands from the Income Fund when the shutters are lifted later this year. Early Decemeber looks to be a key date, although the suspension could be rolled over on a 28-day basis.

In the worst case scenario in which redemption demands cannot be met, the fund might have tobe wound up and its assets offloaded in a fire sale. As far as I am aware the fund still holds Xeros and presumably the holding would be inluded in a fire sale of assets.

Next week should see most of the French back from holiday, including BNP one of our lenders. Perhaps progress can then be resumed and we might see news on the refinacing. A simple refinancing is possible. As is one where the banks and shareholder/mezzanine lenders may take a loan haircut and interest rate reduction (mezzanine lenders). If they do then how simple will it be?

The two large shareholder/mezzanine lenders might be successful in achieving the haircut scenario. But they would have taken a haircut themselves and might not be willing to let other shareholders take all the benefit with no cost. So prhaps we should expect a cost to this - warrants to the two shareholders? But they already own, what is it, 66% of the shares.

The second thing is cash and cash flow. Demands on this will be for capex indicated at the AGM to enhance the production and to make any agreed loan/interest repayments that may be agreed. The production efficiency improvements and increase in the gold price are really welcome. But the cash will be needed now and monthly thereafter. Regular cash flow will come but an initial boost may be needed.

I should have added after the free trial, if you keep the items you will be billed £49 for the order. The pre-authisation for regular 2-month supplies can be cancelled by email to support@stoerformen.com

Hi shandypants2, as a shareholder I decided to try the product. I bought three products for a £6.72 special offer from Stoer. I was sceptical about them as I don't use men care products normally. However, all three are excellent . It certianly endorsed managements' claim and their use of Labskin to develop these products.

The link to buy them is:

https://www.skin.stoerformen.com/stoerskincare

If there is a problem come back to me as I had problems finding this linmk again.

I'm a holder of Polarean and have done the required research. There have been a number of false facts posted here, unfortunately. This will lead to a more volatile share price than the one of steady progression that many investors, rather than traders, would like to see.

The company has said that recruitment for trials will be completed in the Q3 2019. It has also said that the results of the trials will be known in Q4 2019 and then a FDA application will be made. The result of the FDA application is expected in Q3/4 2020 after which the commercial launch will take place.

Had expected the results last week. Surely if there was a hint of a deal the MM's would have adjusted the share price. But DB runs a very tight ship. Maybe the City has no rumouis to act on.

Maybe BNP Paribas are trying to settle things before closing down for August. Maybe the results are worth delaying to try and get a deal past the post. Maybe its just internal hols that determine the results RNS. Maybe they are trying to wrap up another month's extension to the standstill agreement. Too many maybe's!

I just look for a refinancing soon so that they can then get then spend the small amount on equipment to get the plant up to nameplate capacity and gold production moving sharply up towards the 100,000oz pa. that was planned. Surely all the risks ar ein the share price?

I guess MTL's bank contacts are based in Hong Kong where democracy demonstrations and the government must be creating havoc for businesses as well as for everyone else. It's unfortunate that the refinancing has not yet been resolved.

Also we now have summer holidays here in Europe. I don't expect all of this to affect HSBC decision making but it's probably different with BNP Paribas. French companies are notorious for centralised decision making in their French HQ's. And Paris tends to shut down for the holiday month of August.

It may be that it's not so impossible for MTL to reach an agreement witht he two banks and mezzanine lenders. Perhaps the problem is lack of decision making autonomy in BNP outside Paris.

So I remain fairly optimistic that a reasonable refinancing package will eventually be concluded as it's in all parties best interests. It just may take longer than we all would wish.

JMumbo, many thanks for the link.

I have seen situations like this where an institution wants to sell its AIM holdings. A recent example is Metals Exploration where Ruffer decided to sell and dumped its large holding on 6th December 2018. The share price fell from 1.38p to a low of 0.45p during that day. Its share price was 10p in 2016. This is a company where it is producing gold but had production problems leading to lower cash flow and defaults on loan repayments. But it has two large shareholders owning 66% of the company. Since then its has appointed new world class management and has achieved its first quarterly profit, while working on renogotiating its debts. By the way I hold shares in the company and it would be on my watch list if I did not already hold.

I mention this to show that institutions do not worry about recovering small (for them) losses when they decide on a new policy or simply to sell. They normally just dump the shares or leak them out over a period of time. My view is that Woodford does not have the luxury of time on his side.

At 31 March 2019 Xeros had £10.8m in cash. In 2018 they had a net cash outflow of £22m, down from £27m in 2017. If they have reduced cash outflow by another £5m in 2019 they will be spending £1.4m a month. By now their cash position is probably around £6.6m and will be zero by end November. They cannot wait until then to raise money and a fund raising is likely by end Aug/Sept - not a good time to raise money when the City holidays so a fund raising may come earlier.

I would like to build up my very small holding at the right price. The trouble is that the market cap is £17.2m and we will be diluted at the next fund raising. I can see them needing to raise around £10m, which will dilute current shareholders by 58% at the current share price. A fund raising at 5p would dilute by 78%.

This is why I don't like the Woodford share overhang. As I said previously, the directors have not been very clever in signalling the next fund raising so far in advance as they have thereby indicated that income from sales/licences are unlikley to help cash flow. It has depressed the share price and allows the City to manage this situation to maximise their gains from the coming placing...

Steve, Woodford cannot wait to sell because the share price is under 7p. He is in an insane position and is seeking to salvage his business. If he is ever able to refloat the income fund it will see a rush to sell by most shareholders. His reputation has been destroyed and confidence his funds has evaporated. Maybe he will be removed at some point when his successor will want to sell any remaining risky, illiquid shares still held.

JMumbo, I agree many companies make a profit where the top brass do not have significant shareholdings. I have also worked for such a company. Many of these companies do not produce an adequate return on assets and I have seen director actions taken to preserve their positions and or to simply increase their remuneration rather than to benefit hsareholders.

Like you I also think "50K each in a company who's lost 90% of their share value is quite enough" if they think the share price is going lower. If they are confident on success then they should fill their boots at the current share price.

We have a £19m company that has raised substantial money from shareholders (not from directors) in order to continue developing, and to commercialise, new technology. Despite the fund raisings and fall in share price the directors have rewarded themselves with huge salaries taking very little risk in investing in the company. All five directors sit on the remuneration committiee, and non-execs are not going to go against the wishes of the executive directors.

I would bet a £ to a penny that they will award themselves share options at a price where the shares have lost 90% of their value, as soon as is allowed. If they don't they will gain some respect from shareholders. In fact I woud like to see them grant themselves share options on the basis of 1 share option for every 2 shares they buy with their own money.

Look the company appears to have a very good technology and we all want management to act in the best interest of shareholders. We want them to be clever and produce success and growth in the share price. By announcing now a need for a fund raising next winter they have not been very clever. That action alone is going to supress the share price and allow the City to maximise its earnings from this next placing.