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Don't know what calls the flurry of small buying. It was probably not sufficient to drive the share price higher. Maybe some larger trades that will be reported later in the day.

SuhailM3471, I don't think so. DB was expecting final outcome in Q4. Let's assume that it happened. That the five parties agreed late in 2019 and papers had to be signed. We have had the Xmas and New Year break when most companies did not function normally. So lawyers might have been slowed down to the last minute and docs may have had to be signed in January. Then the company's brokers and nomad have to review and pass everything prior to the RNS. This has been the first fully functioning week since before Xmas in many businesses. If everybody has had their skates on the news could come this week but imo more likely next week. But what do I know I have been wrong in the past.

I feel very confident it's not the fifth party (the company) holding things up.

Quite right. But it could be someone like Baker Steel.

Suh, I don't buy it. The deep pockets are already shareholders. More likely to be someone like the secretive Baker Steel based in Switzerland or one of the two major shareholders topping up. Either way I do think that when the buying ceases we are more likely to get news of the refinancing or when the news comes this buyer will stop buying. What does this buyer know that we don't or is he simply a late comer?

H5O, agree with what you say about Ruffer. The major holders at 31.12.18 were:
Candy (MTL Lux) 46.9%
Edwards (Runruno) 19%
Baker Steel 6.9%
Ruffer 6.1%
Jim Nominees 3.9%

The first three were unchanged from 31.12.17. Jim increased and I believe has increased further - these are private investors. This leaves a free float of around 17%. Ruffer is selling down as we know. I would expect there to be a shareholders agreement between MTL Lux and Runruno as they financed the company from the outset. So if one of them wished to increase his shareholding it would probably need agreement of the other - that would be fine.

The other shareholders, Baker Steel, JIM and the buyer(s) of Ruffer shares know the value of the company and its potential value.

I believe Darren Bowden did not join the company (i.e. the two major shareholders) just to see it taken private. He has already stated his objectives to expand the scope and activities of the company. The two major shareholders need to get the refinancing over the line and that includes their own mezzanine finance. Haircut or not haircut, the mezzanine 20% interest rate is unsustainable. Darren Bowden has already shown his independence in putting the Banks refinancing to the major shareholders last summer.

So we are back to refinancing news and the company's future. The genie is out of the bottle in that we all know how world class Darren Bowden is and he has recruited world class Technical Director Xiaofeng Zheng, world class plant manager, world class biox specialist and so on. I guess all these would like a stake in the quoted company to share in it's prosperity. Once the refinancing is done I would be able to, very easily, make a case for a share price in excess of 10p.

I don't post very often but follow the discussions with interest. Many thanks and let it continue.

Someone has bought 20 million shares from the seller and I have no doubt that the buyer will have done due diligence on the company and the investment. Sales of that magnitude are not bought by market-makers to hold on their own account.

I would expect that the seller, possibly the rump of the Ruffer holding, will have been made in order to execute their strategy/tidy up their portfolio before the year end. Maybe the MTL's broker was involved and sought to have the shares sold to a buyer who wants to hold the shares and not trade them. All speculation but perfectly feasible.

If the company's broker was involved then that now leaves the road clear for the refinancing to be announced, if in fact it has been agreed.

It would make a nice Christmas present for shareholders but the impact on the share price might be bigger if the announcements were made in January.

SuhailM3471, yes they are probably tidying up before the eyar end.

When will the debt negotiations be done? Why don't we ask Boris to put 31st December 2019 for it in his new Brexit Bill!!!

31st December is the year end for Metals Exploration and for the bank lenders. Companies like to get things in order for the year end balance sheet. While MTL is not significant for the banks overall, the offices that are dealing with MTL will still want to get things done.

There's a very good chance that refinancing of the debt will be finished before Christmas, or at the very latest before the year end.

If this happens MTL will no longer be a company with a debt problem and the share price will surge. Here's hoping for a Happy Christmas everyone.

So far share price up 26% today. Can't be just buys as the 2m sold on Friday hasn't been mopped up yet.

This company is priced at the value of a large detached house plus it's cash! What an opportunity.

When will the debt negotiations be done?

31st December is the year end for Metals Exploration and for the bank lenders. Companies like to get things in order for the year end balance sheet. While MTL is not significant for the banks overall, the offices that are dealing with MTL will still want to get things done.

There's a very good chance that refinancing of the debt will be finished before Christmas, or at the very latest before the year end.

If this happens MTL will no longer be a company in default of it's borrowings and the share price will surge. Here's hoping for a Happy Christmas everyone.

It can’t be long now. The banks have 25 days to go until their year end. They will either have to write down the debt, if they have not already done so, or reach an agreement to know the value of the debt for their balance sheets. If they have written it down or written it off, then any agreement twelfths be a bonus for them. I know it’s small beer for them but not for the managers responsible for the debts.

Here’s hoping news soon.

H5O, hope you are right. If only investment were that simple. A company defaulting on its debt is a major thing and very high risk. Risks don't get much bigger than that. That's why the share price is where it is.

Geng, that's on very pessimistic assumptions using only exisiting agreements and no new ones. Even then they value the shares at 4p.

Yes, a probably a correction. Very soon a RNS will announce license deals and then the price will fly.

jg, a very good post - I wish I had written it !!

With a 1p valuation, I guess we must all feel quite happy in this share, subject to resolving the debt matter, because it is a gold mining company and many of us might be overweight in it. If, and God forbid, we get a Corbyn government the stock market and £ will crash and we will have widespread despair, if today's Questor analysis in the Daily Telegraph is believed. The share price in this producing gold miner seems to me not only to have outstanding potential for going much higher but is also a good defensive stock against UK or World economic problems. Once the debt is resolved surely the market will realise this and wake up to Metals Exploration.

Roy, I did not mean to finish that way. The big question is whether the bank's and mezzanine debt is simply rescheduled or could it possibly be reduced (haircut) and rescheduled? This has happened in the past in other businesses where debt levels could not be sustained. (it's a little similar to a cva here in the UK where retailers have no longer been viable with debt and rental levels and they seek to reduce them) Clearly, banks will not agree to a loan "haircut" if they think the company is becoming viable with existing debt levels. Therefore, I would rather wait until this is resolved before looking at what the company's future could be.

lee, in the most friendly way may I suggest I think you have missed the point. Refinancing discussions are continuing and the big issue is will it be the simple rescheduling of debt that, I think, you assume or will the lenders have to take a haircut?

The key issue is what level of debt can the company sustain. History says it's much less than the debt outstanding currently. Therefore, I would not be surprised if a haircut is being discussed.

IMO there is no point in speculating about the future while the debt issue is outstanding. I say this because the lenders will obviously read the interim results, analyse them and draw conclusions just as you have. Perhaps they also read bulletin boards. Who knows.

I like good anlaysis and a positive or negative conclusions. Let it all come but after the refinancing is announced.

In this context, I would only say the company has been unable to sustain a lower level of debt than it has currently, that the gold price is an important variable, mined ore gold grades are lower than plan and that current cash costs/AISC are too high. I am not making these comments for discussion but will happily discuss once the refinancing has been completed.

I'm a shareholder.

Gt..... a good point.

Some very good progress as new management continue to sort out the inherited problems. Processing recoveries up to 77.6% from 67.1%. If they were at design of 90% this would have produced an additional 4,400oz gold! So we're on target for 90,000oz gold next year, after processing improvements kick in. Cash costs and ASIC will be lower by quite a bit.

Very pleased to see infill resource and mine plan drilling. Hopefully this will allow mining grades to be improved.

All we need now is news of a refinancing agreement.