The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
GG, you see that is the difference, I don't resort to name calling or insults. I try to argue my POV with facts from named sources. The fact I can't get you to accept what I am stating doesn't mean I am wrong and you are correct.
I don't take everything a company states as gospel or believe that DEC is disclosing everything BUT you don't accept ANYTHING that DEC reports at all, you obviously know better, or so you think.
GG, We are talking entirely across purpose. You state "they claim the average remaining production life of the wells are 50 years". Having a reserve life index of 17 years is in no way contradictory to this average remaining well life. One is measuring how long it would take to deplete the reserves at a constant production rate, the other is how long the wells can produce economically. Those can be entirely different numbers quite legitimately.
GG, I don't know everything about DEC wells but the vast majority of their wells in Apalachia are beyond the exponential decline phase and will continue to produce for many years at lower and lower rates.
I accept their daily production rates and their PDP mumbers as they require independent audit / assessment.
I don't understand how you conclude that "but you think they're being very dishonest about their declared remaining average well production life"
GG, If thats a question you are asking me then frankly I don't know what you are asking.
My original post was replying to "Simplyme" who was asking "how many years of reserves do others get?" You have to assume constant production to get that number.
GG, you aren't that stupid, those are PDP reserves. To work out a reserve life index you have to assume a constant production rate. Reality would be a declining production rate over a much longer timeframe. ( if no acquisitions are made)
Simplyme, I haven't delved deeply to get you an answer as there were a lot of reserve additions and sales in 2023 BUT taking the Dec 31 2022 year end report, DEC reported 830 MM boe of PDP reserves. Taking the latest Q3 daily production rate of 134 M boe and ASSUMING CONSTANT going forward production rate I get 17 years.
Blackrocktrader, the 95 is the $95 MM I calculated as the annual interest rate based upon the outstanding debt as of June 30 2023 interims. I then attempted to work out the interest based upon repayments of the outstanding debt in H2 2023 and a futher reduction in debt due to the SPV Asset Sale.
Lampedusa,
That's a very "careless" statement by Alex Smith of Investec. The sum he mentions of $174 MM is not the interest payment but is probably the amount of the Amortizing Loan repayment for the year. There is quite a difference between the two!
As of June 30, 2023 Diversified had $1,555 MM outstanding debt across its various ABS loans, Term Loan and Credit Facility. Using the blended interest rate the annualised interest as of June 30 would be $95 MM pa. Debt would have been reduced by $135 MM in the second half of 23 and then by a further ~$200 MM through the SPV Asset Sale. So interest payment for 2024 should be of the order of [(1555 - 135 - 200) / 1555] * 95 = ~ $74 MM.
Ameen, I don't know if Jono lost money in the past or not. What I do know is that everyone that is holding this share now has lost money including myself.
There has been nothing but negative news this past 6-12 months:
High rate of decline at Abu Sennan
Loss of Maria disposal/license
Departure of COO
Departure of COO
And now loss of interested farm-in partner in Jamaica
And yet through all of this the various rampers on this board have continued to listen to Larkin's BLather and turn it into positive posts which have failed time after time to materialise. If you look back over this period you will find Jono's posts have been a lot closer to reality than theirs.
GH, again, you didn't point out what basis he would be looked at favourably based on UOG.
I suspect its his various previous roles in other companies which have stood him in good stead for the role at DAA plc, after all he was only at UOG for 18 months.
GH you stated: "Clearly he is looked at very favourably with the job he's done at United."
Peter joined the board on May 5, 2022 when the SP was 1.65p and the production was 1,567 boepd.
His departure has been announced with the SP ~ 1p and production ~ 1,000 boepd.
I don't hold Peter responsible for this decline but on what basis could he have been looked on favourably based upon his UOG tenure? (Remember the failure of Maria disposal also)
I found Peter Dunne to be the most straightforward (no BLather) of any of the directors I have heard on various investor calls. It must have been a "no brainer" for him to move to CFO of DAA, who made profits of > E50MM in the first half.
Even with that, it's hard to spin anything remotely positive out of losing both a CFO and COO in a short space of time.
GH, my guess for the SP on a successful farm-out is 2p - 3p, depending upon the terms they achieve. Remember this is an unproven frontier, exploratory drill they are farming out with a 17% COS.
If they achieve 3p I will be gone.
Louis10, you clearly don't own any I3 Energy shares and only post here to disrupt the board. The vast majority of I3 Energy shareholders that post here just want you to go away as you post nothing relevant or of value to us. Please grow up and I can assure you the vast majority also have no interest in OMJ or his subscription newsletters.
Hms687, yes I do know how to calculate the monthly income. I was trying in a gentle way to get burnemc to realise he had made an error which he has now acknowledged and apologised for. (Not many on LSE do that!) FYI, I am a chemical engineer and have worked in this industry.
Burnemc, from the interims RNS:
"the well has the potential to deliver in the region of 900 bopd net production to Beacon. At those flow rates, the Company would expect to deliver operating cash flows in excess of US$1.5 million per month (assuming $80/bbl Brent)."