George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
TheSwan, I would agree with you that expecting some rotation into O&G if prices stay high / go higher makes sense.
My problem with UOG in this regard is that it is not particularly leveraged to higher oil prices.
As per PSC, if OPEX and CAPEX stays the same, then UOG will only receive an additional $1.79 per barrel for every $10 increase in oil price.
UOGs main vector to improve financial performance is to increase production and unfortunately the last 6 months has been a disaster and the company has been less than open in explaining the situation.
Rift, I agree with you, the effective take of 42.53% shown in that slide is very misleading. Its only true when the OPEX+CAPEX = the 30% cost oil. If OPEX + CAPEX is less than that then UOG only get 17.9% of difference between the 30% cost oil - CAPEX+OPEX. NOT 100% of the Cost Oil that the example would lead you to believe.
So in an extreme case if the OPEX + CAPEX was say ZERO then UOG would only get 17.9% of the 30% Cost Oil + 17.9% of the 70% Profit Oil.
Not one of the best PSCs I have seen.
Gingerhippo, what do you expect expect the installation of ESPs to achieve with respect to the water cut issue at ASH? I haven't seen a situation where ESPs actually reduce water cut but perhaps on occasion they have assisted in slowing the increase in water cut.
Agricore, remember that UOG only keeps about 35% of its revenue with the contract it has with the Egyptian Government. This means for comparisons with other oil cos who keep 100% its really only producing approximately 550 boepd and do the EV / flowing barrel on that basis.
I am afraid I have to disagree MWAP, the only people who are being successful in UOG are the Executive Directors who more than doubled their remuneration in 2020. The SP is down over a 1,3&5 year period. A rising SP or dividends is the only way success flows to the shareholders and there is nothing positive to report here. Despite the "drilling success", production is down and god knows if it will ever regain the heights of Q2 211. Personally I think its outrageous for 3 executives to be taking $1.15 million in remuneration for a shrinking company with an MCAP of £16 million.
Believe in the numbers, not the blather.
I missed the investor call, hope I can hear a recording later and will reserve judgement until I can.
You quoted BP debt of $4.5 million at year end. Apparently it had been $3.737 million at end June 2021 and was supposed to have been paid off by September 2022. I find this disturbing in that all you ever hear from the company is fully funded and generating cash. It might have been before ASH began to water out. I find BL a bit of a rampy blather to be honest.
Ginger, Thanks for the response, I am not challenging your or Rift's numbers, just trying to understand the situation better. Can you explain how you discount the gross revenue to obtain your net revenue for H1 please?
Thanks, Vista.
Best thing this share chat board could do is organise an attempt to oust Sanderson and the board. It can be done, look at Hurricane where PIs got organised behind Crystal Amber. I don't know if UKOG has any Institutional Investors but would find it hard to believe they would be still supportive of Sanderson. Despite the non-delivery and deceit he is still taking a huge salary for a ~100 bpd "oil company"!
Apologies, I used the wrong hedged quantity, in the interim results presentation I see that 100,000 MWH per month hedged, I had been using a figure quoted in an interview with AA. Hopefully correct this time!
Current net production rate = (12,700*0.6) = 7,620 boepd / 42.7 MMscf
Hedged quantity = ((100,000/30.5) * 3412 / 5600) = 1,998 boepd / 11.2 MMscf
Using 5.6Mcf = 1 BOE, and 1MWH = 3,412cf and Dutch TTF at E 95 per MWH
Unhedged Revenue = (42.7-11.2) * 1,000,000 * 95 / 3412 = E 877,052
Hedged Revenue = 11.2 * 1,000,000 * 25 / 3412 = E 82,063
Total Revenue = E 959,115 per day
Opex per day at $5.50 per boe = 7,620 * 5.5 * 0.88 = E 36,880
Operating Cash Flow = ( 959,115 - 36,880 ) = E 922,235 per day
Vista
DG93, my numbers are a little different than yours primarily because the 25% hedging IMO applies to the H1 production rate and not the year end production rate. I haven't read or heard anything that suggests AA increased hedging beyond 25% of the H1 production rate. So:
Current net production rate = (12,700*0.6) = 7,620 boepd / 42.7 MMscf
Hedged quantity = (8,600*0.6 *0.25) = 1,290 boepd / 7.2 MMscf
Using 5.6Mcf = 1 BOE, and 1MWH = 3,412cf and Dutch TTF at E 95 per MWH
Unhedged Revenue = (42.7-7.2) * 1,000,000 * 95 / 3412 = E 988,423
Hedged Revenue = 7.2 * 1,000,000 * 95 / 3412 = E 200,468
Total Revenue = E 1,188,891 per day
Opex per day at $5.50 per boe = 7,620 * 5.5 * 0.88 = E 36,880
Operating Cash Flow = ( 1,188,891 - 36,880 ) = E 1,152,011 per day
Vista
I just bought in here recently and am wondering am I missing something? Both HL and LSE give the market cap at ~£4 million. However I have seen figures of 40M and 44M quoted as the market cap on this board. Have I missed a share consolidation or something?
Hopefully the Capital Markets Day in November will permit DEC to address all the issues raised in detail and permit a significant recovery. Remember a previous article that dropped the SP significantly around the cost of decommissioning a well at DEC versus other companies turned out to be garbage also and the SO recovered.
For those of you who believe this is a Ponzi Scheme, please look at charts 7 and 13 of the Asset Retirement Supplement presentation dated August 20,2021 on the DEC website. Surely you can see that the ARO is being recognised and planned for in the financial planning, never mind the significant boost in cash flow over the next few years with much higher strip prices than just a few months ago.
GG, The Phase 1 Part 1 flows and revenue you quote are Gross? 50% Net to IOG?
Thanks, Vista
toro, I am only new here but the gas production figures you are using to calculate 2021 revenue are gross figures surely rather than net? I could be wrong.
Today is a good example of why I always purchase target quantity of shares over a number of transactions. Buy in yesterday, placing today! That said it looks like a good update accompanying the Placing. Expect the unexpected in investing!
Vista