The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
GG, The Phase 1 Part 1 flows and revenue you quote are Gross? 50% Net to IOG?
Thanks, Vista
toro, I am only new here but the gas production figures you are using to calculate 2021 revenue are gross figures surely rather than net? I could be wrong.
Today is a good example of why I always purchase target quantity of shares over a number of transactions. Buy in yesterday, placing today! That said it looks like a good update accompanying the Placing. Expect the unexpected in investing!
Vista
GG, Could I ask for your take on the expected production rate for the Phase 1 Project? I have assumed that a figure of 70 MM scf/d NET from page 4 of the April 21 investor presentation was for Phase 1. With the reported flow results for Blythe at 58 MM scf/d Gross it seemed to me that 70 was reasonable figure for the 3 fields?
Vista
Edgar, Here are my revenue numbers based upon:
180p per therm (futures show >180p for next 6 months)
70MM scf/d NET production to IOG post Southwark start-up in Q2 22
1M scf = 10.37 therms
Daily revenue = (70,000,000/1000)*10.37*1.80 = ~£1.3MM per day
Happy to hear any corrections to this.
Are there any current broker notes for IOG?
Vista
Bought in here today and will add further. Having done my research this looks like a monster revenue producer even at half of today's NBP prices. I must admit I am surprised by the lack of posts on the board given the outlook here.
Vista
Ragnar, I don't believe the market has appreciated what the increase in spot and hence forward curve gas prices could mean for DEC, even with their extensive hedging already in place. They have 75% hedged for 2022 at $2.69, looking at the forward curve they could probably hedge the remainder at ~ $3.70, a significant increase in margin. For 2023 they have 30% hedged. For the first hald the hedge is at $2.42. Looking at the forward curve for first half 2023 they could probably hedge around $3.30, another significant margin increase. They could pay down debt quickly, make acquisitions or increase dividends.
Vista.
RNS states before end of September.
Suffolk, Whilst I know from RRE experience that he doesn't advocate excessive hedging, the current TTF prices must make it very tempting to lay on incremental hedges. It will be good to see resumption of unrestricted production and then positive outcomes of the sidetrack and the re-stimulation of the 2 Q10 wells. If he had all of these in the bag then I am sure there is scope for him to increase volume of hedges whilst still keeping some exposure to commodity pricing.
Can't believe there are people selling Kistos at the current TTF prices.
Vista
With the results due tomorrow I hope AA can update us on expected restart of production after the TAQA-operated P15-D maintenance is complete. Every days downtime at the current TTF price (60 Euro / MWH) is £720k lost revenue! Would also be good to hear if a portion of production has been hedged and at what level. AA has not been a fan of excessive hedging at RRE.
Vista
Suffolk,
Divide by 3.412 to get price in Euro/Mcf.
Vista
Urban, This comes up every so often on this board, I hold all my DEC shares in my Sipp and my wife's SIPP and pay 0% witholding tax on the dividends. In the past I also held some in an ISA and from what I remember paid 15% then. My broker is HL. If you have a significant holding it might be worth switching brokers if they can't be ar**d to fix it. 30% tax soon adds up!
ArbInv, The report was also hard for me to understand whether they had a good first half or a poor first half. The webinar for investors tonight helped a lot with my understanding particularly around the reported net loss of $84 MM. The main reason for this reported loss was the $371MM non-cash charge for unsettled financial instruments over the next 9.5 years due to rising strip prices. This charge doesn't affect cash flow in any way or the ability to pay dividends or debt repayment. In fact it creates an opportunity if sustained for DEC to raise their average hedged prices in the future as beyond 2022 a significant volume remains unhedged currently. Certainly went a long way to ally my concerns.
Insidious, You are either a complete and utter ramper like TH2 or have no idea how to value oil companies. You do realise that a 2p SP would give UKOG a £320MM market cap? Is that reasonable? I'll give you a quick external calibration - I3E, 18,000 boepd, paying a dividend, market cap £120MM. How stupid do you think people are to buy the garbage you post!
Hintza, The figure I used was 3412 cubic feet = 1 MWH. I took the NET to Kistos production in MMcf from the July production update and multiplied by E38.5 less OPEX costs of $5.50 per BOE and I get ~ £250k per day which is same ball park as extrapolation of Andrew's interview.
Vista
Hintza, I remembered the 60% share OK and will share detailed workings later today but possibly have used a wrong conversion figure in my calcs as never really worked in MWH units previously. An independent data point is the April 28 interview that Andrew gave where he quoted Kistos were earning in excess of £50 million EBITDA. That is equivalent to £137k per day. Dutch TTF gas prices in late April were ~E22.5 per MWH whereas currently they are E38.5 so EBITDA likely around £80-90 million per year or £240k per day.
Suffolk, Would you mind sharing how you get your daily cash figure? Have done some calculations myself and get a significantly higher figure that yours.
Vista.
Hello, have been steadily adding to my position here since listing. Has anyone seen any information on hedging for Kistos? I know Andrew wasn't a big fan of hedging when at RRE. A corporate presentation would be most welcome as weeding through the Admission document is very hard work. Has anyone had success in terms of contacting the company and getting a response?
Vista