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Parkhurst - thank you for informative posts and agree with everything you said. However when you refer to experienced UK lawyer, are you referring to someone that is not Dearing? Dearing was instrumental in the coup for Ning to take over Mwana/ ASA. Whilst Mpinga had to go and costs were out of control, the underhand way Dearing & Ning went about it had long-term impact to the SP. Whilst Dearing might be clean, by direct association and to start afresh, ASA really should get a new legal counsel

It's partly re-assuring Shanta are not being singled out but all miners are facing the same issues regarding receiving VAT rebates back from the Government. Acacia are facing same issue and awaiting 28m in VAT rebate. See article link below. What I was ignorant of is this 30% local ownership rule that the article also covers telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/20/cost-export-ban-mounts-acacia-mining-faces-new-ownership-rules/

On a glass half-full perspective though, if resolved this is good news in sense that there is 12m that could come back to Shanta that I never took into account. So taking Q1 as an example only, net debt would only be 32m. Would be great to close this out within Q2, which would more than offset the Capex costs and would actually see net debt decrease, rather than a final increase to net debt that I am expecting for Q2.

Daisan - good summary as ever! Any thoughts on the potential reclaiming paid VAT of 12m mentioned? Got to admit I'll need to look at last annual accounts to understand the legal position on VAT, if there is indeed one stated.

That's because of the 1H Capex and was expected to go up - net debt will go up again Q2, thereafter with bulk of Capex complete, the net debt position will improve drastically

I see Q2 will be lowest production due to moves through the ramp-up process of the underground production, so still some risk out there

Very strong results and beyond my expectations. Production for this quarter is more than I expected (20,416) and at time of major Capex was expecting far bigger increase to net debt. It's only gone up by 1.6m I need more detailed look but there is a lot of positives in this RNS. If there are no mine issues, I would not be surprised if Shanta surpass their Annual production estimate again

Daisan - I probably should have clarified the Azeri news reports on lower production came as a surprise and clobbered the SP. By time the AAZ RNS came out, you are right it was already baked in, damage done. The difference is of course SHG's lower H1 production is expected, as long as they follow it with a statement re-affirming the annual production target is unchanged (which they already did in March). I am one of those who have been adding. To be clear I don't expect it to go up, it could of course go down. But at these levels and considering I'm here for long-term (2yrs +, unless something fundamentally changes my mind), at these levels which I consider low, I will keep adding each month. I truly think next year onwards will be transformational once this last year of high Capex is out the way... Maybe investors are deterred by the perceived risk to the shift to underground mining. Debt may again peak at 2H 2017, but thereafter more people will cotton on the major Capex is behind us and the net debt position will rapidly change I still like AAZ and invested there, but to a far lesser extent.

A few million is nothing to the ten of millions the Chinese invested at 5p. The majority Chinese shareholders have really screwed themselves. Incredibly self destructive and short sighted. This fraud would only have paid off for them in the long run, yet they got caught in 1st year! They can't offload 30% shareholding in open market and sure it's probably a frozen asset. So I would say he cares a fair bit

The AAZ production figures shortfalls were not formally flagged, came as a surprise, constant downgrades to production etc. SHG a different beast, has good recent track record meeting and exceeding production etc. I've been surprised SHG has been so weak in period of gold moving up to 1,280+ With other gold juniors falling short, SHG should look pretty attractive

Guess that's one way of looking at it! It was nigh impossible to buy in any reasonable volumes at the low though

Considering construction started Sept 2015, no it did not take 9 months... it took 19

What difference a week makes. With removal of Finance Minister and now SA credit rating downgraded to junk status yesterday, Rand has significantly weakened to 13.8 against USD. Good for SLP's operating costs for Q2, as assume most of their costs are in Rand.

Daisan - thanks for comments and share your long-term view Long-term Shanta could indeed be a target in a buoyant gold market. Both Acacia and AngloGold Ashanti are in Tanzania producing circa 730K Oz and 470K Oz respectively and of course their could be new entrants as well. Acacia has 3 working mines and of course having issues at the moment with concentrate export ban (could impact roughly 30% of revenue if ban not overturned). On top of that if I remember correctly, one of their 3 mines will come to end of their life within next 3yrs or so. De-risking from concentrate and to maintain production levels, Shanta could be good fit Acacia - 732koz pa (2015)—3 mines in Northern Tanzania AngloGold Ashanti - 477koz pa (2014)—Geita mine

Another note to temper short-term expectations - the Capex not included as part of AISC is also weighted to 1H 2017. So short-term my expectation of the net debt position currently at USD 42.9m would be to increase. Over the wkend I worked out a very rough "back of the fag" packet calculation of "all-in costs" per ounce for 2017. That is Shanta's AISC + Capex not included in AISC. I took a worse case scenario that none of the 33m Capex is included in AISC other than the "Stay in Business" (SIB) costs (which clearly are in AISC). Based on the stated 80,593oz production for 2017 in the Mine Plan, I produced an "all-in cost" of $1,238 oz for 2017. Therefore if Gold avg. $1,250, by end of 2017, I'm not expecting net debt position to change that much overall. I've done same for 2018 onwards and due to steep fall in Capex, the AISC can be relied on far more for investors to work out a rough "free cashflow" and Shanta will be paying down debt at a very rapid pace indeed. The AISC for 2018 of $751 clearly includes more Capex costs than just the SIB. The only costs that do not appear to be included are Underground Capex (as Daisan alluded to last week). Based on production of 86,718 for 2018 from Mine Plan, a very rough "all-in cost" I worked out is $869oz. Even with Gold at avg. $1,250, Shanta's positive cashflow for 2018 would be USD 33m. Thereafter "all-in costs" continue to go down per year aligning closer to AISC. Production in 2019 is estimated at 91,973 Oz and with future revisions to the mine plan incorporating 683,000oz resources not currently included, additional exploration and resources (such as recent Nkuluwisi Lupa), if executed correctly I'm sure Shanta could get to 100K Oz per year and 10+ yrs mine life, Ultimately it would then be correct that the Capex was classed as "non sustaining".

Typo - 1st sentence was 80-85K Oz production for 2017

Andrew - the mine plan RNS effectively already gave an update on underground mine progress and additionally is de-risked due to stockpile. From last RNS Shanta confirmed they are still on target to meet 80 - 8k Oz production: "A significant stockpile of high grade ore was created in 2016 to tide the operation through the transition from surface to underground mining In the meanwhile, the underground development of the deposits at both Bauhinia Creek and Luika have progressed on target. At the time of writing, more than 2.1 kilometres of underground development have been completed, excluding two 80 metre ventilation raises that have been established in Bauhinia Creek and a third at Luika that is underway. The third level of ore development is underway in Bauhinia Creek Gold production for Q1 2017 to date is in line with expectations and our full year guidance of 80-85,000 oz" I do agree though, despite the above reassurance, until fully executed some may be wary or additionally may have simply glossed over the above. Like you though, I am fine with low price too, as I'm topping up too.

Palladium also hit a 2yr high today before pullback and Rhodium has pushed ahead of Platinum, over $1,000 SLP's basket price is in excess of last quarter

I would love it to be at $1,526, but assume you mean $1,256 ; ) Good nonetheless - up nearly 1% and just below 200 dma. However for ASA this positive is more than offset by Nickel declining further to $9,700. The psychological 10K/ tn for ASA is particularly important as it's always touted as the minimum for Smelter restart

Napoleon - not sure which institutions/ banks loans are financed by, but from memory the Red Rabbit JV has loans of $32m. So crudely, Ariana's portion is $16.8m. On plus side Panmure are estimating dramatically lower AISC in 2018 onwards, but it's a fair chunk of debt to pay down at only 10K Oz per year