RE: SLP26 Feb 2018 13:06
Share, Ragnar, Leas et al - thanks as always for comments and keeping board alive.
1) Production: downside risk has been introduced by providing lower-end estimate, but top-end of 75,000 still matches the last Q4 17 report. However even the lower-end will match 2017's 70,869Oz achieved.
2) Cash costs: based on the fact 71-75K lower range is same as 2017, cash costs should not actually increase or decrease by much at all, with exception of Forex. However with cash in bank + 7% interest any increase in ZAR to cash costs is offset by increase to cash in the bank, in USD Equivalent terms.
3) AISC and All-in costs: in a re-assuring sign of transparency and think it's first time I've seen this, SLP are reporting both an "AISC" and an "All-in Cost" (AIC) of ZAR 7,127 and 8,515 respectively, or USD Eq. $615 and $735. Conservatively I've always assumed $750 AIC, so not too far off my own assumptions. Based on a 71,000 - 75,000 Oz and with a basket spot price of over $1,100, the margin and free cashflow is substantial.
4) Capex: was nearly $5m in 2017 and due to be around $11m in 2018. So an additional $6m of Capex in 2018 compared to previous, which translates as roughly $80-$85 per oz extra on top of $735 (if 2017 is used as a benchmark), so estimate of AIC $820oz. Considering this will be highest year of Capex and then starts to fall, the margin is still significant at $1,100 basket. Looking at $20m free cashflow. Of course subject to Forex. Another metric which shows just how under-valued SLP is at Market Cap of �40m.
5) Dividend: With $12.4m in bank and substantial free cashflow even after AIC, disappointing there is no update.
Separate to our industry, with a number of statements by new ANC leader Ramaphosa and SA economy in general with major hurdles to overcome, I would be surprised if ZAR appreciates much from here, but let's see.