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A final point to put the EBITDA in context based on current 6E PGM prices, in October THS provided in their presentation Broker analysis based on much lower EBITDA/ 6E PGM prices, with EBITDA forecasts ranging from $88-102million and share price forecasts based on this of 120-190p.

So if we're now up to $150m EBITDA and if these 6E PGM prices hold, wonder what Brokers would now forecast for share price?!

THS market cap/ share price of £201m/ 75p is absolutely crazy at present. For FYE Sept 2021 I calculate EBITDA of USD 150million based on:
- chrome price of $138tn and 6E PGM price of $2,400
- chrome production of 1.5million tonnes and 6E PGMs of 160,000 Oz
- ZAR of 15.6

Take into account the context:
- Open cast mining to 2033 and thereafter 40yr underground mining.
- As of March 2020 THS were near Net Cash position when you take into account Trade Receivable minus Payables (Cash $40.3m & Trade Receivables $62.7m versus Debt $66.4m & Trade Payables $40.2m).
- Unredeemed Capex for set-off against future profits of $98.9 million.
- Hopefully dividend of circa 2% when Accounts released end of Nov
- Vulcan Fine Chrome Project ($52.8m capex) re-commenced due to complete Q4 2021 allow increase to Chrome to 2million tonnes. 6E PGMs also forecast to rise to 200k Oz p.a.
- Zimbabwe assets of 26.8% of Karo Mining Holdings (96 Moz PGM 4E resource at 3.2g/t) and 90% of Salene Chrome (1st production Q2 2020, circa 60,000tpa lumpy chrome). Last news I saw on Karo was a while back and a prefeasibility study was supposed to be complete mid-2020. Other priorities, COVID etc. no doubt pushed this to back burner, but would be great to see update. Karo could be a monster if ever developed, 1.36 million PGMs p.a. by 2024/2025.

With such significant mine life and future expansion of core assets + other assets on the books it is significantly undervalued, purely based on current levels of production, let alone guidance for FYE Sept 2021 and thereafter 2022 onwards. Perhaps the results end of Nov will provide a shot in the arm needed for "market" to see the true value and potential here.

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3961665/Latest-news/China-UG2-chrome-ore-alloy-markets-follow-Nov-tender-lower.html

Thanks for link Troajan - presentation also up on the THS website: https://www.tharisa.com/ovr-presentations.php

Hope to be some exciting results on 30-Nov, confirmation of dividend in the proactive presentation (15% of Net Profit After Tax or thereabouts depending on Capex for Vulcan Project) and reconfirming guidance for FYE Sept 2021 155 - 165k oz of 6E PGMs & 1.45 - 1.55Mt of Chrome Concentrates, which should increase to 200k PGMs and 2Mt FYE Sept 2022.

Also good to see some updated clarity on the main shareholders in presentation:
Medway 40.8%
Rance (New World) 15.1%
Fidelity 9.9%

Currently on an EV?EBITDA of 1.6 - ridiculous...

With Rhodium now at $14,500+, THS 6E PGM basket is at whopping $2,369 per Oz. Crunching some numbers from previous Accounts and Interims, THS seems to secure a sales price of 12-13% less basket on sites such as JMAT (albeit few variables that change this and will relook at this again for next Accounts), so they'll be securing a sales price of circa $2,060. With an AISC of circa $1,000, you're looking at $155 - 165m EBITDA for FYE 2021 on 6E PGM alone, before even taking into account Chrome. Even if Chrome at $130-140tn is "break even" (although for THS don't believe it is and may be making small profit on it), THS is significantly under-priced just on PGMs at a £207m market cap.

Depending on the exchange, the ex-div date is one business day before the record date, so ex-div date is today on basis record date is tomorrow 09 October.

Interview mentions Vulcan Project re-started and should be complete within a year. So whilst FY 2021 guidance is already great at 155 - 165 koz PGMs (6E basis) and 1.45 Mt to 1.55 Mt of chrome concentrates, post Vulcan we should reach the long-term guidance that was stated in the last Annual Report: 200 koz of PGMs and 2.0 Mt of chrome concentrates.

On current production levels we're significantly undervalued, let alone FY 2021 guidance and then post-Vulcan world of 200 koz of PGMs and 2.0 Mt of chrome concentrates.

They haven't mentioned financing for Vulcan like they were few months back, so be interesting if they now plan to fund it organically from cashflow. The Annual Report will make very interesting reading. The Introductions and Overview in the THS Annual Report (Investment Case, Market Review etc.) are always very informative and would even still recommend a quick read of the 2019 Annual Report now.

Tharisa looks back on 'transformative year' thanks to 'keeping things going' despite Covid-19:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIsB0ltjS8o

Hope link works but if it doesn't, just type in Tharisa to youtube and should show up as 1st option.

Wow... opening line of RNS sums it up pretty well: "Exceptional production performance positions Tharisa for PGM price bonanza"! 40.5k oz achieved in quarter which beats expectations and achieved quarter basket price of $1,950.

FY2021 guidance also given:
"FY2021 production guidance 155 koz to 165 koz PGMs (6E basis) and 1.45 Mt to 1.55 Mt of chrome concentrates"

Perhaps we may even see a small dividend announced in Results in Nov, albeit not too bothered if we don't as they've restarted Vulcan project.

I've been tracking all the monthly average 6E PGM prices and believe the PGM basket price achieved by THS for Q4 should be circa $1,920 (will of course vary up or down depending on when sales occur), compared with Q3's $1,593. An increase of some 20%.

Now only 9 days up to and including 09 October to be invested and secure 6.6% dividend yield at this 95p share price (8 cents/ 6.25p per share). At some point we will also get: "Upgraded dividend guidance for the full year to be announced shortly" as stated in the Interims, so over the full FY who knows what cumulative div yield will be at this equivalent share price: 14% in total perhaps?

Normally ex-div shares of course dip slightly, but after 9-Oct, Q3 results should hit shortly thereafter, with what should be a stellar set of results with avg. gold price of $1,900 and production of circa 11k Oz, so we should have significant share price appreciation too on top of a bumper dividend yield, if Q3 delivers as per guidance.

With the low gold production in Q1 2020 and any initial COVID19 mitigation measures, i was expecting some increase to AISC. Perhaps when it's in b&w for some it was unexpected?

The guidance if I remember was always a largish spread of $900 - 1,000 AISC, so they've only missed upper range by $21 and sure with 2H 2020 on track to deliver 21k+ production, they will meet both production and AISC guidance.

Correction on my previous post - meant 7% interim div yield.

Net Debt is also down to only $8m end of June 2020 from previous $16m.

Announcement of 8% interim div yield at this share price to be paid early Nov, upgraded div guidance going forward and a bumper Q3 2020 due in Oct as they allude to production being in line with Q2 production of 11,419 oz, the response is quite bizarre.

I like the quiet and have been quietly accumulating since the 50s and now bought a lot in the low 70s. This board reminds me of SLP a few years back when there was only a few of us posting shouting at what a steal it was in the teens! Now SLP board is teeming - can't quite get over how quiet it is here!

As much as I like SLP and their huge cash position, their dividend policy has continued to disappoint (don't start me on the "potential" windfall metals dividend in calendar Q1 2021, just have a proper dividend based on % earnings/ FCF!). I hear you on the "free float"/ liquidity issue here, but I now don't know a single share this undervalued than THS on a fundamental basis. Even assuming chrome is "zero sum" at present, the value from the PGMs which is near double the production of SLP and triple-quadruple production life is huge (open pit until 2033, underground 40yrs+ thereafter).

Of course if you do know any others, let me know! ; )

Not sure what "BNN Bloomberg" is, but other news sources including Bloomberg are saying the exact opposite - ECOWAS have not agreed to lift sanctions until a civilian transitional president is in place:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/west-africa-bloc-fails-reach-agreement-mali-military-200915192030980.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/west-african-leaders-agree-to-lift-mali-sanctions-after-talks?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google

On plus side news articles do appear to insinuate ECOWAS have agreed the 18 months transition. It is now up to Mali junta to concede and accept a civilian president. We may have to wait another week when ECOWAS reconvenes as to whether sanctions will be lifted or not. At least ECOWAS have confirmed they will lift sanctions IF the Mali Junta agree a civilian will be the transitional president...

In short-term there are 2 large headwinds: SC reducing holding and Mali political situation, which we should find out about more today with ECOWAS meeting. If they reject the Junta's position (18 months with a civilian OR military leader) the borders could continue to be closed and operationally could start to impact all miners in Mali.

Does anyone know if the border closures have any exemptions for fuel and food?

I think military agreeing to 18 months instead of 3yrs is a good thing and not too far off from ECOWAS' 12 months. However I can't see ECOWAS accepting the fact a military leader could be the transitional president, that will be the dealbreaker and the fact the Mali "experts" helping draw up the transition were chosen by the Junta and political parties are crying foul. So this could have further to go and impact Mali miners on a "sentiment" basis but operationally too if the border closures continue. It should not impact gold dore exports as these are airfreighted out, I'm more worried about bulk supplies trucked in to Mali.

If the Mali Junta agree a military leader can not be transitional president, that should break any deadlock and I reckon ECOWAS would accept 18 months instead of 12 months. Fingers crossed but it may take a while and could get a bit choppy.

There is a natural "choke point" in Mali where most of the UN, ECOWAS, French and British forces are stationed. I honestly can't see how the jihadists in the north could use this to reclaim more territory unless they overran and killed substantial number of these 30,000+ troops. It's not going to happen. You also have the US base in Niger providing drone support to the French army which do bulk of the fighting against the jihadists.

In terms of the south, yes the foreign troops will have no involvement in that whatsoever. Only way to resolve that is through diplomacy. The National Guard simply don't have support to stage a long-term undemocratic military coup, so likelihood is it will be resolved sooner rather than later, as long as their key demands are met, no doubt main one being immunity from future prosecution!

If you think the risk is at your 10p level, good luck with that.

Even though I'm invested, I do think short-term the sell-off is fair enough. You can't argue that this increases uncertainty in the short-term in terms of Mali's stability.

Long-term I'm confident with the largest deployed UN forces anywhere in world in Mali, ECOWAS and African Union pressure (which holds far more sway than the "colonial" French who are not seen in a good light generally by Malians, perhaps unfairly with French efforts against jihadists but of course there's lot of history there) there should be a peaceful resolution and hopefully elections. Re-instating Keita would not be sensible in long-term for international community to demand. The risk/ concern though is the potential political vacuum from now until possible elections are held. And this does have to be "priced in", including whether election will happen at all.

But long-term could be great entry point if you believe the likelihood is for a peaceful resolution and no impact to HUM operations.

Indeed there are some 30,000+ UN, ECOWAS, French and British troops in central Mali - they will not be able to shut off borders for key items like fuel and supplies - it would be extremely counter-productive for ECOWAS in particular. Both Resolute and HUM have made no mention of any such impact to operations. ECOWAS would be shooting themselves in the foot. But short-term it's a very good way to start negotiations with Mali National Guard and for elections to be held ASAP as they claim they want.

As much as UN, ECOWAS, African Union and French are moaning about this, if Keita had held new elections in the 30 contested seats, this would have placated the opposition protestors and I doubt the National Guard could have just rolled in and taken him with no police or army to be seen.

After the strong condemnation last night by international community on the coup, they can save face and rather than demand that Keita is re-instated, due to low voter turnout (as result of COVID19) and 30 contested seats, UN and ECOWAS supports new elections being held on XX date etc etc

HUM's de-risking on COVID19 (airstrip, substantial build-up in spares, materials, chemicals, reagents etc. ) in essence also de-risked this scenario too. I'm not sure if other larger miners have their own airstrips too or if to transport their dore safely from south to Bamako International Airport, they'll be looking to rent the airstrip from HUM.

Edit: Net Cash 2H 2020

ngnlnv - very true. If gold was to stay elevated at $2,000+ for a long period of time, the majority of countries rich in gold would no doubt instigate a "windfall tax". This doesn't need to be resource nationalists or even due to regime change. Look at UK governments and windfall taxes on north sea oil. The easiest way for Mali to raise more revenue from gold would be to increase the royalty tax, but this isn't yet on the table.

By time something like that was implemented, we would have had a number of quarters of $1,900+ gold and be Net Cash in 1H 2020, followed by zero debt 1H 2021. So whilst I wouldn't be surprised if further down the line all gold rich countries do this, it would likely be a good thing for HUM as it would mean gold prices remaining elevated.

Those more likely to move first and instigate a type of "windfall tax" I would guess are SA and Tanz.