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I am not concerned about the shareprice at the moment. After reading a lot of comments and documents i think AMGO will survive (as stated in paragraph 143 of the judgement "there is no evidence of any immediate (or even medium-term) liquidity crunch" I think the next steps of the BOD could be the following:
Little changes in the current SOA with the goal that FCA can announce (now the missold customers get double the money they have already agreed upfront and get paid 100% instead a "haircut" of 90%. In this case shareholders and redress claimants are treated equal, which is important to the judge. Shareholders can benefiit from raising share price and customers are happy to get paid over time in full.
Things to do (They are all doable in my opinion)
1.) Put 15m extra cash up front. (This could be a loan contingent to the approval of SOA 2.0, so little risk)
2.) Change the 15% pre-tax profit term from 4 years to infinite until the redress is payed in full (would give a great image)
3.) Get a non-objection letter from FCA (this time they should be able to give it, if customers get paid in full)
4.) Appeal the current judgement on mistakes or errors of facts (would clear BOD not beeing liers)
5.) Parallel start SOA 2.0 with the changes and issue PSL with approval of FCA
6.) Go back to the 72.000 who voted and tell them if they like double up front and 100% of repayment better than SOA 1.0
7.) Nothing can go wrong at the 2. Sanction hearing if FCA is not objecting
I am sure the BOD is working on this for weeks already in the background. That is the reason i am confident that we will get a great RNS as soon as possible. It only will take 3-4 month longer but i believe things can move quicker as it did last time, because now we know the issues we are dealing with:
1. FCA and judge want a better deal (now the get it)
2. 95% voted already for the old deal and this would most likely not change
3. If there is no objection from FCA, SOA will pass (which we hopefull could learn from PSL letter in very near future)
Here is a case (Sunbird case), where the judge first denied to sanction the SOA and approved the SOA 2.0
https://www.casemine.com/judgement/uk/5fe0507e2c94e062daae2347
What is your view on this?
Since the judge critisised the fact, that the numbers presented by AMGO showed only the scenario of AMGO not relending until Jan. 2024. The judge did not like it, that the restart of the business was not projected in those numbers. I think it would be acutally a good thing, if AMGO starts relending so they can show the numbers with the projections including new lending. If all claims are in, which is expected by the end of 2021, AMGO could do an debt to equity swap at a treshold of 1 to 1 with a treshold shareprice value of 100p, which could be achievable. So SOA 2.0 could be:
1.) Keep SOA conditions and expend the 15% for 4 years to invinite.
2.) Offer additional debt to equity SWAP by the end of 2021 with CAPS.
I think this could be a fair solution.
@ Senator1. So what would be your change in SOA. I think a judge will need to accept, that maybe BOD has really no other option than this SOA. Maybe they can increase the 15% from 4 years to infinite until full redress would be paid. So it would be basically increase the 90% "haircut" to 0%. With all the evidence presented to court and FCA, this would be a nice way forward. I think Judge and FCA would need to be happy with that.
@ Paul. We know that the claims are only max 280m from the 72.000 voted. I believe it will need approx 100m to settle them.
1.) Useing 15m upfront cash
2.) Useing 15% foe 4 years of profits
3.) Using 60m shares which can be sold maybe +100p
Everybody happy.
@ Paul. Do you understand that 6m will save a company having 200m cash in the bank? I am running a business myself and can understand the risk. If you think this is not for you, why are you not move on. In all bad things you can find a solution. Since we know what the judge and FCA want, we can provide it for an additional 6m purchase of shares. Hope you are not short if you have kids. Time will tell. GLA
Like in the Sunbird case i believe the SOA 2.0 will pass if more money is in the pot and some equity will be involved. AMGO need to move forward and start relending. My thoughts on this:
1.) Use current SOA terms and adding equity
2.) AMGO buying 60.000.000 shares for 6m in the market for ALL
3.) AMGO starts relending which will drive shareprice up
4.) Get SOA approved at at shareprice beeing up
5.) After real claims have been sorted, shares can be sold and add another 60m at 100p to the pot
What is your calculations on real amount of potential redress claims. Most claims until Dec. 2020 have been settled. As i understand it, the 72.000 who voted for the SOA must not have actual claims and need to be analyzed. It would mean that the average value would be arround 3.888 pound. Not sure if this represent the total value of loan plus interest or only the interest. My guess is that the uphold rate could be arround 40%. I try to find out how much the real redress payment could be and a way how to propose a settlement closer to 50% than 10%. If AMGO would use around 6m they could buy 60 million shares for the ALL Scheme co. After claims have been settled by the end of the year, these shares could be sold after relending started. So there would be the equity and if the shareprice is at 100p that would add another 60M to the pot. Just a thought.
If you read the judgement, you will read at point 85, that the company has 200m cash in the bank and that neither the judge nor the FCA sees a possible insolvency in the short or mid term. This company can survive until 2024 without new lending. Appeal the SOA or SOA 2.0 could be next step. Maybe AMGO buys schares for ALL Scheme and let creditors participate from the share rise.
@ Mouuske......i thank for yor thoughts. My love is directed and content.
https://youtu.be/4WWJH61DKJI
Today i fedl very happy. Because my wife told me. Wherever you go - i go. That’s my wife. 3m loss and going to bed in peace. This is for all you having a soul and believe. Still love all the traders.
https://youtu.be/AEp08vVYreg
I am sleeping like a baby tonight.
If you did not miss 3m in your account. I wish you this
https://youtu.be/FwEcxMRhxGY
@ Mark ...FCA and Judge told AMGO what to do. The BOD know what to do. At least GJ is in the BOS group. I personally think, he need to rub shoulders with BOD and admitt, this SOA did not work out. Hope the law firm paid the insurance.