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@ prolee. The 1x1 of trading is that somebody needs to sell that someone else can buy. JB sold at a higher price than the share is today. So what do you not understand. JB could buy back shares if SOA is sorted. Sorry, but you come a cross a bit wired.
WARNING: THIS IS A RAMP
Here are some reasons why i support AMGO:
- Market leader in the guarantor sector
- Access to more than 1 million prior customers and guarantors
- 15 years market experience with lot´s of data
- Financial platform
- Senior BOD with FCA Seniors approved by FCA
- 180-200m cash in the bank
- 150m redress claim provision
- Great market potential post covid as survivor in the sub prime market
- Fair partner in difficult times (granted payment holidays)
- Can help people to get better credit ratings
- Easy and scalable business modell
- Highly profitable (made 80m profit in 2019)
- Fast recovery as soon as they start re-lending
WARNING (This is a ramp)
Imagine they can solve the SOA problem and get back to business. I can imagine that they can get 150.000 new customers in a very short time. If the average loan would be 5.000 GBP it would create a 750m loan book and add 374m in revenue. The annual cost of management should be around 50m. What whould that do to the share price?
@ Specialonek. I am not sure if that is an option. Another idea would be to grant stock options at 29,5 p (share price prior to sanction hearing) and execute them at the end of 2021, when all claims have been sorted. Then we know the exact amount we need and the creditors would benefit from a raising share price.
Here is another quote of the judge at paragraph 86: "A second reason for concluding that that there is no imminent need for ALL or the Parent to enter administration concerns the agreed informal moratorium on the payment of redress claimants. As already explained the Group has made an accounting provision of some £150m in respect of Redress Creditors. If those claims had to be paid in the short term, there would be reason to conclude that an Judgment Approved by the court for handing down ALL Scheme Limited administration was the only route open to the directors (absent the Scheme)"
AMGO has the right to do a SOA and even the FCA can not stop them. It just need to be fair to all stackeholders.
@ prolee. You seam to me like a sad and frustrated individual. I feel sorry for you. Nobody who will invest will invest just because somebody saying "this will go bust" and the other is saying "no - this is not going bust". All i can say is that i understand why the BOD is hanging the darmocles swoard of potential insolvency out. Every business, which is not restarting can go bust. You need to understand, that only if we do NOT START RE-LENDING, there is a treat to go bust. All i can do is trust the judgement of an insolvency expert judge from the high court who said "The graph shows that the Group had cash of about £180m in April 2021 and that the cash balance is expected to increase to over £200m, where it will
remain until January 2024 when the secured bonds require to be repaid." You can read it here on paragraph 85: https://www.amigoscheme.co.uk/docs/AllSchemeltdJudgement.pdf
So please educate me what makes you smarter than a judge?
I think the board can demonstrate, that the cash collection has been strong and the sucuritisation facility have been paid down. So a lot more cash will go in the future to secure the bondholders. Why would they not be happy with that?
@ Senator. That is a reasonable theory. I think it will not be easy for anybody under these circumstances to go to an insolvency judge and convince them to accept administration. Remember the quote of the judge (See paragraph 85) "The graph shows that the Group had cash of about £180m in April 2021 and that the cash balance is expected to increase to over £200m, where it will remain until January 2024 when the secured bonds require to be repaid." https://www.amigoscheme.co.uk/docs/AllSchemeltdJudgement.pdf
It seams strange to me, that a insolvency judge would allow administration with up to 200m in the bank and no need to repay the secured loans until 2024.
@ Buyerspromise. I agree that FCA (under pressure of politics) need to clean the market of companies like WONGA etc. Everything above 50% APR is not right. Look at page 18 of the report and you see that AMGO is a fair company, which did things right in the COVID pendemic, by granting a lot of payment holidays. It is a good company and needed in the post covid market more than ever.
https://www.amigoplc.com/investors/annual-report-2020
@ Franky. After FCA issued a letter after SOA 1.0, that it would not oppose the first court hearing (but they reserved the right to do so), i was happy and bought shares even at a price of 24p. That they turned up at short notice to the sanction hearing was not expected, after 95% of the votes have been in favour of the SOA 1.0. I think the judge just does not like it, that creditors should get a 90% haircut and shareholders benefit 100%. I think AMGO just need to use SOA 1.0 and change the terms, that the 4 year time restriction of 15% pre-tax profit should be lifted until the creditors are repaid. I anyway believe, that it will not be a huge amount of claims beeing valid from these 72.000 who voted. This would give the judge no argument, that creditors would not benefit the same as sharenolders (100%) if AMGO keeps trading. If the company is trading at 100p, a rights issue could be done to put some more money and cancel the 15% pre-tax payment. Lots of options which need to be sorted if they are practical and possible. It would be a bad management to let a company with a strong brand and 1 million customers, who made 80m profit in 2019 down because of some claims.
This is what i believe will happen next:
1.) AMGO is hiring a counsel to represent the creditors to negotiate a better deal
- Counsel will understand what is possible for AMGO and what is fair to creditors
- Counsel will issue a letter to FCA that he is satisfied with the terms of SOA 2.0
2.) AMGO will issue a practice statement letter (PSL) with the terms of SOA 2.0 and present it to FCA
- FCA should consider to write a non objection letter on that basis that creditors are happy and represented
3.) RNS that SOA 2.0 will go ahead
- This time approved by professional councel of creditors to represent the unsophisticated (including FOS :-)
- Adjustement on SOA homepage and move along the known path
I don´t think this will cost AMGO another 15m as the judge already stated. If there is the need for more upfront money, AMGO could negotiate a contingency deal with a lender, that if SOA 2.0 passes, the funds will be provided to ALL Scheme Co. The BOD has skin in the game and bought at these levels 5 month ago. Just see what the share did in the last few month and i believe we will repeat that in a much quicker path. If i would see the risk of insolvency i would sell all my shares today.
I do not understand why people are so mean about each other. It shows the personality and character. I could be upset about myself, not selling at 30p 2 weeks ago. But i am in for the 100p. Tell me why this is not possible, after SOA 2.0 is sanctioned. I believe that if you spend 15m for lawyers, experts and advisors, that they know in the second attempt what to do. There has never been a case, where a SOA with 95% voting landslide would be rejected by the sanction hearing, except the sunbird case.
Here is SOA 1 from Sep 18, 2020 (not sanctioned) https://www.casemine.com/judgement/uk/5f683ab52c94e061ac5d9834
Here is SOA 2 from Dec 16, 2020 (sanctioned) https://www.casemine.com/judgement/uk/5fe0507e2c94e062daae2347
So now somebody tells me, why this should not be possible with AMGO. We know the vote will be easy and if FCA will not opose the sanction hearing should go in favour of the 95% who voted for it already.
@ Yuri - I respect your views but shis is AIM market. You might be a great teacher in investment classes. Here everybody has and can have their own opinion. That makes it so interesting. Nobody knows until it is fact. Some even don´t trust the weather forcast. Everything can change all the time but this gives a great chance of risk/reward if you are willing to take the risk. I am in here since 9 month and have been down from 20p to 7p and from 30p to 7p and now waiting for the 40p and hopefully will stay there and above. I think it will be very interesting next few days/weeks until the finanical data is released.
I am sticking with the judge from high court and the presented documents by the BOD. The judgement states "The graph shows that the Group had cash of about £180m in April 2021 and that the cash balance is expected to increase to over £200m, where it will remain until January 2024 when the secured bonds require to be repaid., that there is no risk of short or mid term insolvency"
Evidence: Paragraph 85 and 86: https://www.amigoscheme.co.uk/docs/AllSchemeltdJudgement.pdf
Evidence: Financial statement presented to the judge by BOD: https://www.amigoscheme.co.uk/docs/FinancialTimelines.pdf
@ Senator. Your view is also just a guess. Here the BOD predented to the court, that all securitization will be paid back in June 2021. https://www.amigoscheme.co.uk/docs/FinancialTimelines.pdf
Do you think BOD lied to the judge?