Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Class mb = climb
In my humble opinion we are simply in limbo until Sept when the conditional element of the $2.5bn will have been met. There is no absolute guarantee that this will happen but bear in mind that the reputation of JPM would be affected by any failure and this huge project would grind to a halt - so the chances of failure are absolutely minimal. Would I bet my life on it? No because I love my life. Would I bet every penny I can afford on it happening as planned - YES!!
So looking at fairly conservative and detailed estimates of company value at that point I think we can comfortably see a rise to the high thirties fairly soon after the finalising of the finance package.
I think the class mb from then will be slow and steady to 50-60p at first production in 2021. So 3X in under three years- looks good to me.
I see a 10p dividend at full production so a £2 minimum SP by 2027 / 2028. I see SXX as not needing a 5% dividend to be attractive because the mine will be very safe and secure and has a long life span. I think as a U.K. company selling the product they have will be a very popular share at around a 4% dividend which will equate to a SP of £2.50. So 15X or so in under ten years - sounds good to me.
If you want more - good luck.
Patience is required - look inward and be honest - do you have the minerals required?
Private investors are the huge majority of the trade volume at present. Certainly from a buying perspective. Clearly people are still giving up their shares cheap and accepting whatever loss they have rather than seeing this through to Sept/Oct time which would be a reasonable strategy (or even the end of May for that particular dust to settle!).
Shorting as a trading option is irrelevant to 99% of PIs dabbling with SXX. Some may have a vehicle to short via CFDs or spread betting accounts but the recent legislative changes to these kind of accounts means most will be talking a few hundred pounds at best if they get it right.
I think we are suffering at the hands of a ridiculously high level of PI interest in what was always a very complex venture but became even more so as of Tuesday - I would take a wild guess that something like 95% of people trading SXX today know very little about trading and investing let alone about SXX specifically.
I accept this and this is not a complaint about something I can do nothing about. It is just very clear from many comments and questions on this B.B. that the above is true.
The stock has been overhyped and even though the fundamentals march onwards strongly we have ended up with a very broad claim that something had gone wrong or had failed- it hasn’t. This is a successful part of a difficult journey and will be shown to be exactly that. There may be better investment opportunities once we have hindsight but I will tell you now - unless you have insider information or your bestie is about to invent the latest craze, you do not know what is a good investment today. History is a good source if information but it doesn’t guarantee a thing for tomorrow.
The drama had to stop and reality had to kick in. This is a huge project with huge potential. It had risk but I no longer think that the risk qualifies for a huge in front of it.
As a result of all that has happened to this day with SXX, it now sits as a really really good opportunity for a long term investment - in my humble opinion.
I am a LTH and I am happy. Could have been happier, but I’m happy. My strategy (because I have one in the first place, unlike too many here) is in tact and my ducks are still lining up.
If you are in a different position to the above I would recommend some inward reflection and some brutal honesty to yourself- you expected too much and YOU made a mistake.
I have said it so many times that the wrong kind of people were using SXX in their financial activities - for the wrong reasons over the wrong time scale.
Once you realise it is ALL your doing, you can leave this stock alone, leave this B.B. alone and try harder next time.
You could of course stick to the fundamentals of this stock and buy now at an absolute bargain price and return in three years for a decent profit. It’s a mine, it’s being built, it’s a slow and expensive process, those doing it know what they’re doing, the project is good in so many ways for so many people.
How did we end up with a bulletin board that reads as if this thing has collapsed after a huge tragedy? The opposite is true.
The wrong people doing the wrong thing at the wrong time and now blaming others.
Back broken by final straw.
Worse dilution than we all expected?
I thought this was the best possible dilution we could have expected since the CAPEX increase declaration 7 months ago.
Do we really have a demographic that appears to only be able to pay attention to what is going on and what has been announced and what is actually happening for around 5% if the time? Or only absorb approximately 5% of the available information?
This has become a weird parallel universe where the facts are completely ignored by too many people.
Do all those who say SXX isn’t worth a look because this news is oh so bad have an explanation for why exactly half of all shares moved today were snapped up?
Is it because there is £25m + of funds out there that the owners didn’t know what to do with so they randomly selected SXX as a place to house it?
So you guys who know better could probably have had a bit of that £25 million pounds that bought SXX shares today. Shame really.
Myo - thanks as always for your efforts and we’ll done for keeping resilient and patient. I’ve lost my patience with it in here today and I put no real effort in here generally so hats off to you.
My particular favourite was “this is AIM, worth a punt”. A great accolade to the raising of $3bn dollars!!!!
£2.5 billion dollars a year income divided by 10 billion shares equals more than current share price- PER ANNUM.
Yeah I’m right.
A few on here have lost money today because they buy into the hype of doom and gloom put out by the likes of Rooster who I suspect won’t have lost or made a penny here.
Stop losses will eventually all be “stolen” and the dust will settle. Back to 22p by end of day.
I would certainly buy now if I had the funds.
Get out and don’t come back I say! The people that lose money today will probably never see that it was entirely their fault. Playing with something they should never have touched.
Third most traded share after Lloyd’s and Vodafone in one analysis - amateurs playing with fire.
This will settle and head in one direction only - stratospheric.
Jokers with predictions of 19 to 20 odd pence for years!! LMAO.
Buy buy buy. I wish I had more money to buy.
Doom and gloom - on what basis?
It’s what was aimed for. It’s priced in already. This isn’t great for PIs if we don’t get many shares offered from the issue but that is a minor disappointment and doesn’t change the company value equation. Once the details are finalised this company increases in value HUGELY.
I expect the traders and under researched to be busy today.
LTHs will just watch this run to 50-60p with very little stopping between now and the end of summer.
Dare not mention Christmas.
The dilution is already priced in. This stock has been held back because of uncertainty around finance and as such has been very undervalued. It is about to become a whole different affair.
It is a bit late to be worrying about very specific points and what ifs. If you are not in already and are a PI - be very careful today. Don’t try and catch up on a single day.
All LTHs - here we go. Enjoy.
Which inspires more confidence in its own performance? As a life long Spurs sufferer (I always say being a Spurs fan is the domestic equivalent of supporting England) I have far more confidence in Sirius!!
I just hope Ajax don’t clean up tomorrow night. ;-)
Not too many current holders have done that.
Most have bought shares from another person who bought the shares prior to them and so on. This does not help the company one iota. In fact many current shareholders damage the company by behaving like whimsical, greedy, impatient, self indulgent brats and over trading this stock in a panicky herd mentality way. This makes raising funds more difficult because extra double kicks in. Raising funds with a share release now at 20p rather than 40p means twice as many new shares issued.
So, as I’ve said before, if you bought first issue shares or shares in the equity raise of ST1 finance then pay yourself on the back. If you’ve bought shares because you believe in the company and are behaving in a manner that supports the stability and reputation of the stock price and assists the company at this crucial stage then pat yourself on the back.
If you are in this stock having done little research, having never bought a share at issue stage and you keep in and out as soon as there’s the first sizeable movement then stop kidding us and yourself that you are doing anything for SXX, The North of England or anyone but yourself.
So the herds are either panicking based on nothing or their stops are getting picked off. Very sad to see.
I did in fact wake up and smell the coffee today - very nice too. Whole household off today and enjoying a quality cup of joe at home for once.
The volume is good. There is almost as much upwards pressure and the price is holding relatively well. Without the large off loads this buying demand would have the SP cruising up. Plenty of people happy to load up at this price and I can see why.
Someone alluded to the timeline of institutional decisions and strategy being long and very deliberate. It is- it’s like turning an oil tanker round. The strategy will be taking place based on a very global situation and not really anything to do with the specific issues around SXX. Could be a simple as a definite decision to reduce exposure in the mining sector. If they have so far made single figure percentage gains with SXX then why not? With the world of investment opportunities at your fingertips and then need for security over profit it all makes sense.
I am taking the risks with SXX because I want the rewards. 10% per annum between now and retirement is not going to change my life but 10mtpa production for SXX with a £1 share price and a 5p dividend does.
“Sirius Minerals share price: is it a zero?” Search this title to look for this IG report.
The above title sounded very negative but the report itself is very balanced and accurate and is not sensationalising any aspect.
The norm? So Carondean what has happened to SXX SP this week is absolutely normal is it? No extremes at all? If I looked at the other FTSE 250 shares I’dsee similar patterns left right and centre would I?
I’m all for a simplistic approach but this share price suffers more drama than most because of the factors I mention.
There are a million other levels too but as so many do bury their heads at the first need to use a brain cell there’s not much point going any deeper in to it.
More shenanigans today but at this price we will finish blue.
The equation that no one is mentioning is the “fools and their money” vs those in control of the markets.
The objective view isn’t difficult to see when you boil it down to this.
The current set up of holder status, news feeds and market manipulation is just perfect for the price movement we see this week.
Well done to those that have made some money from the extreme volatility. The cynic in me tells me that someone who has £100K to throw at SXX and take out 30 grand profit this week by PERFECT trading does not spend too much time on bulletin boards or Internet forums.
Much more likely that someone on here has made a couple of grand and now thinks they are Gordon Gecko. The volatility is ultimately very dangerous and you will get burnt unless you are very lucky.
There is very little pretence in saying I’m a long term holder and wish the company well and I’d love to see my investment grow to four or five times what it is now over a period of years.
There is quite a lot of pretence is saying I know this share top to bottom and back to front and I saw this coming and I’ve traded perfectly this week and I do this all the time because I’m super successful.
Just saying.