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Again, very logical thinking @Fevertreeman. If I had to take a guess from the way you write, you are or have been a FM. Am I right?

Thanks all for some really interesting insights, which confirm how little I still know about Docs atm. One of the pleasures of these sites is hearing views on a share where investors know what they’re talking about. Maybe the irony if we get this one right is that we’ll very quickly be joined by the loony tunes. Enjoy the exclusivity while it lasts.

Atb and thanks again.

I’ve just bought these for the first time after the last results. I was happy with the results, the statement and the cautiously positive and sensible comments from the CEO. Far more important than that is that my son and niece who are the world’s experts in everything tacky and expensive have both gone out and bought some….. and they both love them. Who am I to argue?

At the marginally more serious level, does anyone have a feel for whether the younger generation (18-25) are seriously starting to like the brand? Those of us who were kids in the 70’s will remember what a cult brand it was then. Things are obviously different now, but I guess it’s not impossible for Docs to have another day in the sun. Unlikely I know but there’s very little I can see in the valuation for something like that to happen. Any similar anecdotal stories or thoughts? Thanks.

Agreed, really sensible analysis. Can’t argue with anything he said other than most current investors are paying up for the unknown unknowns with this one - the “what if?” school of thinking. No different from those that are going to pile into SpaceX

My own and not very original take on the market making side is that they have been short of this all the way up, and getting ever more annoyed that they can’t get the stock back. I’m sure they know that engineering a sharp fall produces a lot of impulse selling (“shaking the tree” they used to call it).

This shake out may have changed everything in terms of UK sentiment, but I don’t yet think so. I agree with others - we ought to get a reasonable rally here if the market makers have got their books straight. Wouldn’t it be a nice time for a cheery company announcement?

I cringed just after I wrote it. Blamed a chemo frazzled brain. You’re quite right, but I think my multiple calc still works.

Dubs, it was me that mentioned £8. Please read back over what I wrote because I meant to phrase ir carefully. All I meant was that I could really do with the shares getting there in six months. (And btw thanks all for the good wishes)

Probably like everyone here I’m flitting between using UK yardsticks and instincts to see the overvaluation, and knowing the successful American experience with these situations which is pretty much “hold hold hold”. So I absolutely share your concerns. My personal one being whether they need a much more powerful b/s to deal with the behemoth sized customers that are now cropping up.

Even so it’s worth looking at how the shares could reach £8 in six months. Firstly given FTC’s high beta (or risk) to buy now one probably needs to be thinking of doubling one’s money in short order. What would the thinking be? We know there are big new orders in the pipeline. Names like Amazon, Leonardo, BAe, even Qinetic could all produce a step chance in turnover, never mind the principle customer. That’s why the new plant is capable of handling 8x the current revenue. The 25% margin ought to increase once the new plant is up and running but if we only assume the same margins on another (say) £100m of t/o next year we get a doubling of EBITDA to say £70m. That’s 13x on today’s share price in 2027 with plenty still in the pipeline. So the prospect of £8 wouldn’t make it a stupid purchase if you follow that logic - and American investors do.

I’m as nervous of the share price run as anyone. I know from experience how I panic at the first sign of trouble. But I’ve also made truly horrendous mistakes by not realising the power of technology over the last 30 years and taking profits far far too early. So I’m inclined to try and think more of the potential still left in FTC. £8 is a tall order, particularly after the run we’ve had, but if I’ve got my maths right (and please others correct me) it’s not totally illogical.

Let’s hope. Atb.

Glad your BP readings are better - not that the excitement of FTC will help. I’m currently running two stage 4’s, both in a bad mood, and was told last week Ive got six months. So if Im going to leave the family anything meaningful I need to get this one right pretty soon.

Is £8 by November going overboard?

Welcome back. Been a while ……

Shares climb a wall of worry, and after the price rises we’ve seen we’d be silly not to at least contemplate where our risks lie. Plainly the balance sheet, as is, looks great, but anyone who’s ever invested in small pharma knows that strong balance sheets don’t always mean there’s enough money. Imagine that SpaceX produce some huge order out of the woodwork, that requires a further step change in capacity. What’s more we then find that suppliers are offering 30 day credit against SpaceX offering 6 months settlement. (Americans aren’t known for early payment). Export guarantees/forfaiting/ bank finance etc will all help, but all the prospects in the world won’t hide the fact that today’s strong balance sheet comes under a bit more strain.

I may well be talking gibberish, and am happy to be put straight by someone that works in the real world rather than pontificates from an armchair (as I’m doing now). But we shouldn’t ignore that we’re invested in a small company playing in a seriously big industry. My guess is they’d love to have the balance sheet a bit stronger for what lies ahead.

I promise those who only look for mischief making in any thoughts, I haven’t sold any, and intend to let this one run as long as I can. I actually would expect an institutional placing which would be eagerly snapped up and would broaden the shareholder base.

So in fact what am I even worried about? Probably the risk that they don’t raise money. Ironic eh?

I bought at 60p and it’s by far my largest holding. I’m not quite clear how you think I missed out.

BTW why are you in such a bad mood?

I thought Sheltie had made a very sensible comment, but it’s very comforting to know you’ve already worked out the working capital requirements that FTC will need to finance the growth we all hope for

Fair point Sheltie, it always makes sense to raise when the demand is there. On that subject it’s noticeable how quickly the Seraphim Space price has recovered.

My apologies I’d missed that you had the Newton quote. Thanks TheTrotsky for putting me right

Agreed, a great book. But one would have missed a lot in recent years by relying on it.

Interest post @TheTrotsky i don’t know the Newton story. Where else but FTC posts will you get a proper historical perspective like this?I admitted here the other day that I’m the guy who bought at 60p and so nearly sold at 6p out of boredom. Thankfully I’ve not sold any but I confess that I’m now totally lost. My comfort is that if this is all a bubble we’re going to lose a lot less than some others. Plus we’ll still have a proper company - maybe with a bit of over capacity - at the end of it.

I see someone earlier mentioned they sold out too early in the dot com boom, which reminds me of my own story here. As a value investor I missed out badly on that period. I was a fund manager and was tearing my hair out. I remember anguished chats with all the big value mangers as we tried to seek comfort in the mutual pain.

When all reversed of course we were heros, but somewhere around 2006/7 I bought these pa for my wife’s ISA at 60p. In the way one puts nasty things out of one’s mind, I forgot about this. Thankfully my wife didn’t notice either. When they were 6p a few years ago I had a clear out of small stuff (always lethal) and just at the last moment thought perhaps we should keep this one. It was a complete toss of a coin decision. But I didn’t sell it. Here we are now with me rewriting history and patiently explaining to my wife how prescient I’d been.

No moral here, except that humility on these sites is surely the way to play things?

Let’s hope we all continue to prosper from this super investment.

I’ve just come on to ask the same question. I’m honestly mystified. It’s more than investors just not liking the shares, this appears to be active sellers who are convinced they know something, and I would say something short term rather than structural. I confess I’ve not been through what accounts we have yet, but the normal sign that shorter term active sellers want is a working cap problem. As far as I can see that’s not happening here. In fact most indicators including cash generation have been improving since the interims, eg ROIC and Asset turn. A friend of mine models SN cheaper than any time over the last 15 years. So, like you, I’m stuck….but concerned at what I must be missing.

Excellent reply Sheltie, I’ve wasted far too much of my life doing fundamental research on stocks that cannot be judged that way. Key thing for fundamentalists must be the size of the market, the value of their intellectual property and the competitive threat. Having analysed all these I come up with your valuation of 250-300p. (And if you believe that…..)

Sheltie, I’m very happy to agree with you on a target of 250 to 300p but any thoughts on how you get to that price?