The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
They are always good for a laugh. UKOG is going to put its' complete investments at risk by doing some unapproved drilling at HH ? ! Take me back to the old days of fracking. By now America with 800,000 wells fracked ought to be stricken by earthquakes , cattle dying in fields, tap water coming out of the tap in flames. flu like symptoms near well heads. On one farm they did have water which you could ignite but it turned out that they had a private water supplying that had gone through an underground gas pocket. The flu like symptoms were never named but have had all sorts of flue strains, perhaps this was 'fracking flu' ?
Dead cattle in a field, well I don't think the people who reported it had full diagnostic facilities except for vivid imaginations. What ever happened to fact these days ? We now seem to live in a world that where somebody expresses an opinion, no matter how far fetched, it gets reported as if opinion is fact, in the media of today . There is a fact though drill or drop may wish to repeat " Around the world more than 2,000,000 wells have been fracked and according to their logic the planet should be shaking itself to bits by now . Another favourite of theirs is methane escape. Another favourite of theres is fact methane. Methane is not a poisonous gas and it is ever present in the atmosphere because it leaks out from underground in swamps and marshes all over the world. In some places it even ignites and they call it will-O-the-whisp. You can kill yourself with methane and to do this you have to sit in a enclosed space and switch on a tank of methane, the over pressure provided by the bottle shoves the natural air out of the room and replaces it with methane i.e. there is no oxygen left for you to breath in there.
Just looking and Drill or Drop reporting on the frack free Surrey contingent. They do tend to get excited. I cannot imagine a 9 inch drill pipe half a mile below a property will have much affect at the surface.However, reading it has me very concerned for my hedgehogs at the bottom of the garden, will they be disturbed by the goings on in Surrey, I wonder ?
If there is any delay in the Saudi repairs it is bound to put the price of oil up on the world market, and if drone attacks become common place it will cause the price to rocket. Bad news for the car driver, good news for UKOG and share holders. I was just wondering though, now that they seem to have perfected a new form of warfare, will tankers already on the high seas come under attack. In the event we are going to need the Weald and the North Sea oil ....poor Europe, but they can always buy from Russia !
Mumlungo SS has the same indications as you and I, it seems good, but OIP is only ever an estimate. Personally I like to think that it is an underestimate. Personally I feel that the weald has far more oil than is estimated but that is guesswork and a lot of hope !
I hope you are right that he will finance future work from income rather than by sale of shares. Assuming everything pans out right then this share could be a bonanza. However, there are too many shares on issue, so the SP bumps along the bottom with any gain struck down by sales. They could buy the shares back, of course, that is unlikely and offer no advantage to the company- that I can see. Most likely a consolidation at guess work 50:1 leaving people with 2000 shares for every 100,000 they now own. But the fairy godmother could perhaps fix a big investor to mop up 25% of the shares and hold them for the future. Or, the shares will slowly rise and fall but every upwards to 50 pence each, giving our holder of 100,000 the equivalent share holding the value of approx 5,000,000 v/v today or (C.£50,000). But that is the equivalent of saying pigs washed brushed and ready to fly - but sadly it ain't going to happen. I suspect the consolidation pretty soon after they get good reports from their present activities aimed at increasing production
The worst thing is there is no logical reason for this to go down if the £1 is going down, this is as good a hedge fund as you are going to get. I really cannot see any reason for the downward spiral unless there are just too many shares on issue and they are too cheap. In effect if somebody can buy half a million shares for a song even if they go up just a couple of points it is worth selling and taking the profit . If that is the case they cannot get off of the floor, or if they do they will only be taken back down again. What we need under the circumstances is a 'hedge fund' to buy in and hold . That will mop up a lot of shares and make those outside the HF holding more expensive to buy. It would be a lucrative strategy for the HF too
Oh its gone up a lot more than 2 tankers worth. In the past few days the oil in place has probably gone up in value to the order of several millions, without pumping a single gallon. The company is worth a lot more than it was just a week ago. The company sells oil in dollars, so its' assets v/v the £ have been going up. I think the figure for the past 7 days is 2% fall and thetas a lot of money when you are dealing in millions of barrels of oil
There is trouble in the Gulf which can only affect the price of oil on the world markets. The Pound Sterling has sunk against the Dollar and oil is paid for with dollars even when it is produced in the UK, so effectively UKOG profitability from OIP and oil being sold has gone up by the same amount as the Pound has gone down against the Dollar and the Pound it likely to continue to sink in the near future. Yet the ninnies have been selling UKOG. This share is probably as safe a bet during Brexit and Gulf troubles as gold !
I think you are thinking of a government in times gone by. The bottle of this government was recently summed up by the detaining of a British oil tanker in the gulf . They had even been warned that it would happen , yet they didn't even recommend that British flagged ships in the gulf should form up into convoys protected by the lone British warship there. If we start to suffer from lack of oil from the Gulf the best that a UK government will do is to hold a public enquiry, or perhaps even call the Iranians 'naughty', as Jeremy Hunt nearly did on tv yesterday . An he is the foreign secretary !
Ha ha Tony, Yes you are right, surprising how many people turn maybe, and the possibility, or we think. into fact in their own mind . Big case in point the UKIP bus which said £350,000,000 could be spent on the NHS, Lots of people and apparently even the BBC had turned that into 'would be' spent on the NHS, and then complained when they realised that it may not . Some even complained that they had been lied to by UKIP. IMO anybody who reads this should go out an buy a lotto ticket for tonight, they could win £72,000,000 :))
From time to time people come in and lambast or try to sound authoritative about research. I am sure every body has read the RNS's. That is all we have to go on, there is no other secret pool known only to a select band of investors (other than company employees that is - and they are not telling) However, even if there were a few people with inside information you could hardly send them a questionaire. I'm afraid RNS is all we have got and the odd news report which is usually reporter speculation and a repeat of the RNS's anyway
As soon as UKOG is stable and profitable there will be a consolidation - not so far away as it was now. My guess is 50:1 . Unless, of course - meantime, the shares rise dramatically to at least 30 pps, which is highly unlikely because profit taking would prevent it
It may see a blip. There are two factors involved the first simply speculation of movements generated by interest. The other is the expected dividend = SP. As we al know the dividend aspect is a non-starter with so many shares on sale. That leaves speculation which is often transitory . IMO we need somebody - a company who will mop up a couple of billion shares and hold them as money in the bank. 1.5p is desirable, but not an answer for people who purchased these in the 2 to 3 pps
Well as long as he does not raise more money through share issues, it sounds fine. However, his track record ever since BB days has been share issues to raise cash. It maybe helpful to us because perhaps not many finance houses will wish to put up cash for shares bearing in mind the history