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Don't know if it's been highlighted in the mass of daily posts on here each day - but it's now being picked up by the financial media that GGP raises an additional 'minor risk' (at the moment) in that it still hasn't reported it's H1 Interim trading result that concluded at the ended of December 2022!
Last trading year, GGP had reported its interim trading update by the following March
- yet here we are a further 6 months on from the usual March reporting publication date - and still no trading update!
As said - It's being treated as a minor red flag risk . . . - at the moment!
But it's becoming noted in the financial media.
Seeing some forecasts being upgraded in some quarters for the 2025 era.
Aka the new joint venture ( The much touted "Thaba J/V adds significant value" )
has some areas of the market upgrading SP value up from the 120p area to 135p.
Class it as jam-tomorrow if you like, as the JV won't produce a penny until 2025.
First-off is the annual results presumably Sept 7th/8th - a week and a half away, so will that be an opportunity for the market to reappraise positively (or not) if they decide to react positively to the yet to produce a penny, new JV?
Personally, not expecting a floor in the SP until October, however the low point - not the floor, could have been seen this month already (or maybe the true low will be in Sept?)
Surprised there have been no posts on the actual full-year results achieved, now that all 4 quarters have been revealed in RNS’s, ahead of the full-year audited accounts to be published, circa 7th September.
Anyway, to recap - from the top:
- all-time highs in the company’s entire history were achieved for the year ending June ‘21 with the front door/back door figures of Revenue/net profit revealing:
$206m Revenue / & $99.8m Net Profit.
That was excellent.
And from there on, it’s been nothing but pullbacks all the way down.
The following year (‘22) revealed:
$152m Revenue / $56.2m Net Profit.
Early this year market guidance for this year ending June ‘23 had it down for $166m Revenue & $66.8m net profit. However, revisions continually reduced that at every trading update. That $66.8 net profit was soon reduced to expectations of $65m.
The downgrades continued and after the Q3 update, mkt guidance had been reduced further to $134m Revenue/ & £51m Net Profit.
But worse was to come.
After the recent Q4 trading update, guidance was still continuing to be reduced and is currently still showing reductions of Revenue down to $132m / & Net Profit $48m.
So as no one has posted all the actual quarter results as a running total, I’m posting them here, in readiness for the early Sept full reveal -
H1 RNS revealed as:
Revenue achieved of $79.9m & Net Profit of $32.6m
Q3 Revenue achieved $26.510m & Net Profit $6.112m
Q4 Revenue achieved $24.421m & Net Profit $3.136m
Totalling:
‘23 full-year Revenue of $130.2m
$
‘23 full year Net Profit of $41.8m
Where was the Profit Warning from the company?
Because that’s a massive drop on last year yet the trading updates have a distinct aura of: we’re-doing-great!
Whatever, disappointing as that is, this new current year is forecast to come in with further pullbacks. June ‘24 guidance has been reduced again since the Q4 trading update to currently $127m for Revenue & $24m for Net Profit!
I don’t have ‘25 forecast guidance but it’s been posted below to expect Net profit of, wait for it . . . $53.9m ! :)
Should that be the case, then ‘25 could be the last of the floor, as regards to earnings; with an impact on the SP? - only if those 2025 earnings are achieved.
I won’t have ‘25 guidance figures to hand until after the audited ‘23 results are published in early September. But I’ll happily go with that near $54m Net Profit suggested in posts below :)
”Still a good dividend and good profit what am I not seeing.”
- - - - - - - - -
Hi Manu' - Probably, the trading forecasts -
Forecasts, that market sentiment has its teeth into, that is driving the SP in a downtrend, particularly after the H1 was published
- and the updated forecasts by the analysts since that H1 trading update, that turned the screws even tighter.
You might not be the only one that has no access to these forecasts; I only get them indirectly from my subscription packages, so I’ll share what I’m seeing on screen.
So made the time away from quick-reading only these days, to squeeze in a post.
Yes as you say, still a good dividend.
However, I would have preferred if you’d inserted the word “was” before the word good as in: “and WAS a good profit . . .“
And that’s because what follows does not make for pretty reading.
Friday 30th June just gone, was the last trading day of this year’s trading. Those results will be revealed by the Co. on Wed 6th September. (Can’t see any dates for the Q4 which they usually publish in the last week of July).
Anyway the last F/year results (‘22) revealed:
A) Actual -
Revenue @ $152m
with
Earnings/Net Profit @ $56.2m
Pretty decent huh?
So what are/were the expectations for this trading year ending June 2023?
Initially for:
B) Initial forecasts -
Revenue @ $175m
and
Net Profit @ $57m
Nice increases, yes?
I thought so too, but by the time the H1 was published bearish winds were howling through SLP’s habitat.
Those initial forecasts/estimates soon gave way to further downgrades to now currently:
C) - Current expectations -
Revenue @ $133m
and
Net Profit @ $51m
- huge drops from last year’s achievements.
But that’s not the worst of it!
Here’s the shocking bit, next year - the 2024 forecast - means as of today we are already 3 days into, and that is market forecasts of:
Revenue @ £125m
And
Net Profit down to $39m !
(I think the worst this forum’s permabear poster ever forecasted for SLP was earnings of only $40m)
But this brand new current year to deliver Net Profit in the 30m’s? #@@!*!!!
- NOoooo…..!
That’s what the market is expecting. Hence the effect on the SP.
Now the question is whether the actual results beat that forecast at C) and perhaps give sentiment a chance to become more upbeat for this new trading year
- but more on my mind, is if the company comes in, only “in line” with estimates (and don’t beat it) then what will the new forecast be for 2025, released soon after the Sept 6th results are published?
All-in-all, it's beginning to feel more like a multiple-year recovery, not something that will snap-out of it in the short term.
The first test is in 2 months time when we see the annual results in September.
Warren Buffet, always goes on about only buying/holding stocks where there is a sufficient "Margin of Safety" in the SP (ie., where the SP sits below that Margin of Safety) which he picked up from his guru tutor back in the 1950's, the late, great, Ben Graham.
This is generally acknowledged today, as the DCF - the Discounted Cashflow method of calculating to see that sentiment hasn't driven an SP beyond the Margin of Safety.
Loads and loads of versions of it on Youtube - all of them will make your eyes bleed :)
I had one for years but gave it up due to the mandatory guessing of FUTURE interest rates ( an impossible task IMO).
W.Buffett, of course, has a neat homily to persuade you to stick with the calculation on every stock you buy or monitor, whilst acknowledging the inadequacy of guessing future interest rates, he opines:
'Better to be roughly right, than precisely wrong'.
- And boy! Have I been wrong on MEGP back in its PHTM days of holding it!
So these days I leave the free sites to number crunch the fair value. Some time back I noticed they were spouting £1.66 as fair value (as always analysts were way different).
Just checked and currently fair value via the DCF is coming out at circa £1.75
So ultimately, still meat on the bone SP-wise.
Analysts' current consensus opinion is showing as £1.80
Checked with my subscription package for the v latest analysts' estimates and it's showing the consensus as £1.82
So, in summary, Fair Value is coming out as £1.75
with sentiment-driven analysts forecasting £1.82 area . . . - currently!
What will they revise to, when the actual hard figures alluded to in yesterday's trading update are published in July for the H1?
- £2?
- £2++???
:)
- or to remain below £2?
Bit fell off the end as used up the maximum text alowance. Lst para should have read as:
. . . (I’m betting that after the H1 results next month the following year’s 2024 forecasts will also be duly increased in line with the new H1 actual results achieved; with a resultant impact on the SP).
Yes, well done indeed!
Only posting this to highlight the great potential for a further SP increase after the trading update on July 17th when the H1 result is published, and that would be in relation for next year, not the current year, solely due to the new figures suggested in the trading update.
In this latest trading update, it’s stated that the new Revenue increase is expected for the full year to be in the region of £300m to £320m
- And a pre-tax Net Profit increase in the region of £64m to £67m
- - - - - - -
And it’s those two headings that have the potential to beat even 2024’s forecasts, let alone this current year’s that completes on Oct 31st!
REVENUE:
Last year, Revenue achieved was reported as £260m which was a terrific increase on the year prior to that (of £214m).
The old forecast for revenue for the full year (until this morning’s update was for a very nice revenue of £293m).
- that was already a nice forecast increase on last year’s £260m.
So now this morning’s update is for over £300m+ you can see part of the reason for the immediate impact on the SP today.
What probably isn’t yet widely acknowledged in the public domain is that the revenue forecast for next year (2024) is currently standing for revenue of £315m.
Now this is where the double whammy kicks in.
Should the revenue come in at anywhere near the upper end of the updated guidance of £320m then the SP would be due for a second kick upstairs on July 17th on publication of the H1 results - as it would instantly mean that a new forecast for 2024 would be in the offing to increase the 2024 forecasts too - as it had just been surpassed by 2023’s result!
I’ll leave the implications for that double whammy to sink in whilst I move on to the Pre-tax Profit trading update.
PRE-TAX PROFIT:
- Is now updated to expect £64m to £67m.
Last year Pre-Tax Profit was £53.4m
(Which in itself was almost double that of the prior year! That resulted in Net profits of £38.8m after taxes etc.,)
Don’t have next year’s pre-tax profit forecasts to hand, but I do have access to next year’s net profit forecasts -
Net Profit forecast for the current year I’m seeing as £43.9m
And that is based on an impressive old revenue forecast of £293m which has just been updated to north of £300m+
(So is it fair to expect an increase on that £43.9m net profit for 2024?
The reason I ask that is because the forecast for next year’s net profit is currently for £48.8m. Will that too be increased?
I daren’t post a guess what ‘24 actual pre-tax profit could come in at, but that’s where the double whammy effect would have it’s most impact on the SP after this July 17th when we get to see the actual H1 half-way results achieved.
(I’m betting that after the H1 results next month, then the following year’s 2024 forecasts will also be duly increased in line with the new H1 actual results achieved; with
Morning Crossley,
It's a copy/paste from behind a pay wall, from one of my data subscription packages (Stocko).
Nothing on the PSN Investors link itself though.
Although there was a trading update on7th July last year, so sounds right. That being the case it'll only be a 'talky' update without the full hard figures, as the actual full H1 with figures is released in August. No dates for the August update yet.
“ . . . But there’s not going to be a profit warning like there wasn’t an exceeding expectations either over the past 2 years. “
- - - - - - -
Have to somewhat take issue with you there, Artrader (Making use of my dwindling time before radio silence descends again :)
H1 produced $32.6m Net Profit, which was a stonking 34% increase over the prev year’s H1.
[[ So, in essence this H2 period ending in June, will produce circa 50% less net profit in 6 months - than was achieved in the first 6 months should it come in at $48m.
(Worse - On average the last half dozen years show H2 mostly producing the larger returns when the two 6 month periods are compared).
And just to confuse, the CEO did state that this Q3 is the weaker quarter for comparison purposes, which loads a lot of expectations on the last 3 months to June’s close. ]]
After years of Stockopedia’s estimates, I’ve always found the financial media is in lock-step with them, as either
- ‘beats’
- or ‘in line’
- or ‘below guidance’
- against initially set estimates that match Stockopedia’s estimates (Why don’t investors get them for free?) And this year - that’s $60m for net profit as the initial set guidance.
Those initial estimates never change no matter what trading changes occur during the year. Results are analysed as one of those three. And that’s what concerns me. A profit warning may not be issued but based on years of Stockopedia estimate comparisons I won’t be surprised should analysts open with:
SLP comes in under guidance at $48m net profit but are improving . . . . etc., etc.,
- And no matter what follows in their analysis, the damage is done. Haven’t discussed Revenue but the same applies.
Hope I’m wrong on this.
And now it really is . . . radio silence, from me.
I have only been able to watch in short periods at the recent retracing of the SP as each trending level was demolished by the bears to the state the SP has reached.
From initially completing Jan & Feb to (at least) expected gains (but tiny gains only, though) which I had judged would likely be the best performing SP period of the year - but were disappointingly less than expected, I then found myself busy elsewhere.
March got underway with a steep kick-down. But didn’t stop and continued dramatically. Wasn’t too alarmed as the Ultra-short term trends turned bearish, that’s what they can do, but when the first major trend - the Short-term trend also turned bearish - that’s when you have to say something’s afoot.
Too busy to notice when the Intermediate trend turned bearish by early March.
However, I was truly alarmed when the Medium Trend turned bearish by early April.
It was a cold shower to the gains of Jan and Feb with the market definitively highlighting that the current uptrend was officially over even though all had been given prior due notice anyway. Knew it is now only a matter of when, not if, the weekly longer-term trends go south but currently due to the inbuilt laxity that takes months to turn - the Long Term Trend I live by, is not throwing the towel in, and remains bullish.
However, I have some slightly faster Longer Term trends for when I get ‘twitchy’ and start muttering: this can’t be right - and they are all uniformly bearish.
The SP is grimly hanging on by the finger tips to losing the mighty 200 day trend (Which I supplement with a monthly trend of 10 months - and it backs up the precarious position of sinking beneath the 200-day trend - (Absolute No-go territory for investors; except for riverboat gamblers and Special forces types).
In a month I could be singing an alternative song - but there’s no escaping that March has seen the commencement of a descent into bearish trends for the SP.
April and May I wasn’t expecting anything spectacular other than to be slightly bullish - so surprised at the 11th hour (this afternoon) the month has indeed closed up on the month’s open - at last! :)
With May not typically stronger than April, but if it continues with the bear trend, it still shouldn’t go down as deep as April did.
However, nothing can divert me from the belief that all will suffer in June.
I’ll take bets on June doing what it’s done almost continually since SLP listed
- and that is to behave as a right stinker that it always has done, and closes down on the month open.
My longer-term view is for a respite from this October through to next Jan/Feb - international pressures permitting.
However, the SP is trending contrary to that view. And it’s the bigger under current trends that rule, no matter what my private thoughts are.
Thank you for listening - over and out.
“ Profit for year (est) $47,975,595 “
- - - - - - - -
Quiggers - A concern: I know you’ve prefaced them with ‘estimated’ but it raises questions as to whether a profit warning will be issued if that estimated net profit is accepted by the company as the year-end, likelyhood
The current estimates for net profit, I’m seeing (as it has been all this trading year, and at least since the H1) is for a full-year Net Profit of $60m.
That estimated $48m is a significant reduction from that.
So it should raise a public profit warning if the company agrees with your estimate. Last year was $56.2m so no one would blanch at say a small reduction to say, $57m as still being “in line” but assuming you’re on the money, it does raise the question of a public RNS profit-warning, round about pre-Q4 publication date, before the full year results are published soon after that, yes?
The trailing TTM (H1) net profit is still even greater showing $65m but that excludes this Q3 update.
Interestingly, the current consensus for next year 2024 is for a reduced revenue. And consequently a reduced net profit of $57m - that’s what’s showing now.
What on earth will it be if events reveal this current year comes in lower than published estimates at the estimated reduced Net Profit of $48m?
Nope. Can only see the sub-heading of: " Guidance raised again".
"again" implies it's not the first increase in guidance but the last I read was end of March where the consensus view downgraded guidance with Liberium specifically downgrading revenue by 15%.
Worth highlighting a para in the CEO's trading update in the RNS :
"With the strong production performance for the year to date and positive results following the post-commissioning optimisation of the Tweefontein MF2, the Company is pleased to 'INCREASE' the annual PGM production guidance to between 72,000 and 74,000 4E PGM ounces for FY2023."
--------------
No time to post these days.
Trying to do so in the coming days
"velo,
can you explain the technique behind "seasonal probabilities"
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Hi Toptiger,
If I don't post now, it'll be late next week at this rate! :)
1) Seasonal (years of data)
2) Probabilities (close to the month - either up or down)
3) % of gain/loss (% movement by month close)
1)
The seasonal part refers to those months that have shown a "statistically significant" repeatability over a given period of years.
2)
The probabilities part refers to the percentage probabillity given to the data that a certain month will close higher than it opened (rather than down).
Both Jan & Feb had 100% assigned to them as virtually a certainty that those months would probably close higher than they opened. And in this case they both did close up on their month.
3)
However, both failed miserably to close anywhere near the SP expected, as the performance percentage gains/loss assigned to each month were extraordinarily high double figure percentage gains.
On the other hand, those months expected to close down on what they opened, are given v low percentages that they don't stand any chance of closing up on the month.
So a severe 0% probability assigned to a month is the exact opposite of a 100% assignment with the data saying no chance that such and such a month will close higher than it opened. There is only one bearish month that appears every year for SLP with a 0% rating
- and that is June!
It's a single % figure pullback assigned to June but based on Jan & Feb accuracy I'm not looking for that kind of accuracy - only the v strong probability that June closes lower than it opens (down).
0% and 100% probabilities are usually accurate.
Amount of % gains or losses, are a bit hit and miss.
PS. Most stocks/indices vary between lowish and high %.
Specific 0% and 100% probabiliities are v strong but not universally common, but appear often enough to search for.
It's the No: 3) % gain or % pullback that can be very ropey. Usually wide of the mark.
The extreme 0% & 100% months usually do comply but as said, are a bit ropey on the specific amounts in either direction.
Data is compilled for month end, to month end.
(End of the preceeding month, to end of the current month in question).
Seasonality is that sphere of investing that searches out statistically significant repeated data over the same periods each year - over 5 years,10 years, 20 years, 80 years.
80 years indices ie., tendencies only - not reliable probabilities - examples:
(Best performance tendency is that generally, it's best to buy stocks in late Oct and sell in mid Jan to replace the outdated sell in May and go away)
( Tendency for the last trading day before a Bank holiday and the first day after the bank holiday to be bullish).
All above not to be used in isolation.
Has to be backed up with research/analysis.
ie., A small side-hustle to add to your primary analysis.
Fun though :)
Jan & Feb Summary:.....
Well Jan and Feb did NOT perform as suggested by seasonal probabilities. That much is fact - no matter what I was anticipating.
SLP had ceased showing dependable characteristics and continues in that vein. Despite bullish longer term trends newly resurrected since last autumn, the 'seasonal' characteristics can not be counted on, in particular - since the early summer of '21 when the super trend in Rhodium hit the buffers.
I posted earlier this year on Jan 1st as a prelude to my hope of seeing a very bullish Jan and Feb that -
"... But all upset the applecart from May' 21 - until that is, the late '22 fourth quarter. So keen to see if old characteristics return..."
Well as keen as I was to see if they would return, after this Jan and Feb - I have my answer;
those characteristics haven't returned!
So looks like the big positive months (Jan/Feb) are functional only in bull markets.
If that means the extremely bearish months are more dependable in bearish conditions then it's likely that the only dependable probability is that June will stink the place out again (however, now that I've posted that - it provides some protection as once I post it - it fails to do so :)
Whatever - the predominant longer term trend is still bullish overall. Albeit with progress in small steps.
These historical seasonality probabilities are just my side hustle interests.
Shame, as SLP had behaved with dependable charactetistics up until the price demise of Rhodium that commenced almost 2 years ago.
.
The SP during this current XD period:.....
Just recently I've focused on a regularity when the tree shakers made their move but that too appears not to be transpiring as I originally expected. (Expected a peak in the SP by the 8th March and a constant drop to the month end but only after the 8th).
Instead there's no repeat of both '21 and '22, but the opposite with the SP for the first time in 2 years behaving as most stocks do during their XP period.
So - enough of the interim side hustles, the predominant trend is bullish.
And that matters more.
PS.
I was looking to sell this tranche on March 8th and buy back at end of March
if the SP behaved as the last 2 years have on March 8th, during both their XD periods. (Whilst leaving my secondary SLP account holdings untouched).
If the SP does end the month low enough, will just add a smaller purchase to this tranche.
Hi Cheddar Bob,
I'm not back home until the middle of next week, but did a quickfire summary of Jan and Feb as I intended. If I can scrape enough time together tonight, I will add the XD movements to the end of it, despite the whole XD event still in play until early April.
All I have time for at the mo'.
Well, well, well. :)
Surprised no one's noticed, or queried it, but have you noticed with today being XD day, that the SP closed higher than yesterday's close - the day before XDday!
Quite rare that but not with SLP :)
Well I'm attempting to ride the coat tails of the tree-shakers, so will see what comes out in the wash. Will I get lucky? :) :) :)
Summary:
2021 the SP kept on rising from XD day until peaking higher yet, up to the 8th March, and only then pulling back from the next day, continuing right to the month’s end.
2022 the SP also kept on rising from XD day until peaking higher yet, up to the 8th March, and only then pulling back from the next day, right to the month’s end.
It’s not ‘normal’ for SP’s to rise higher than the price prior to XD day as that period should reflect the divi payment being removed from the balance sheet and accounted for in the SP – until payment day is cleared.
Now, 2023 . . . from XD day etc., . . .?
- I expect the last 2 days of this month February, to continue to perform well from tomorrow Monday, and continue so, up to XD day (2nd March) and continue for several days further than that, into March.
And if similar for 2023, then perhaps a pullback after circa 8th March resulting in a buying opportunity by the end of March,
– it should not be a fear of worse to come.
So, if by the end of March, the SP is lower than the SP from the night before XD day, it could be said - isn’t that just normal? – Well yes, or at least until payment is received on April 6th, where the SP returns to free-running.
But what definitely isn’t normal (except perhaps once in a blue moon) is for the SP to rise above the SP close of the day before XD day – which happened last year, and the year before, and IMO is shaping up to do similar this year too. It’s that, that is abnormal – for the SP to rise above that for several days before commencing the full pullback expected in the XD period.
If that's normal - then it's one for the sleuths to explain why it's normal
- if it occurs for the third year running!
.