Member Info for ValueS

:D
Relax alamo55 and welcome to GKP's world! Looks like you did not experience a 99.2% drop in your GKP shares. I have! In April 2014 (pre GKP restructuring) I bought a tranche of GKP @ £1.02/share. After the restructuring of 2016 they became less than 0.832 (oo price) p/share. Or, after 1:100 consolidation 83.2 p/share :D

Today, as I type BP down 1.84%, Shell down 1.77%; GKP down 4.96%. Perfectly normal in GKP world!

Best Regards ValueS

Genel's oil discount to Brent is around half of GKP's (being a much lighter oil). For ex. if Brent = $93. Genel oil _ $81 while GKP oil ~ $70.

https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/opec-agrees-to-cut-output-from-october-in-bid-to-boost-oil-prices-2741353

The average production figures by year:
Year Average Production
2015 30,500 bopd
2016 34,794 bopd
2017 35,298 bopd
2018 31,563 bopd
2019 32,883 bopd
2020 36,625 bopd
2021 43,440 bopd
2022 45,000 bopd so far

It is clear from the annual production rates figures that since 2018 significant progress has been achieved albeit much slower than planned and hoped for. I think this trend will continue well into 2023.

Best Regards ValueS

Thanks PUTUP, but I think the CBC ($23.x m) is already accounted for in your example, which is why net to GKP = $$261m instead of $285 m ($168m + $117m).

"Net to GKP per annum 261"

So, at least theoretically and according to the assumptions made in your example GKP could declare $215 m dividend to its shareholders in 2023 as they did this year, which would consists of the $168 m CO + $47m cash flow whilst still retain $36m of CF.

9.966 p/share. fat finger!

The fact is there are more buyers than sellers; as of today its about 3:4 according to according to LSE (could be wrong I know). In 3 weeks time GKP holders will qualify for the additional dividend of $25m (estimated to be = 9.866p/share ; i.e more than 4% return at current SP (with current GBP/USD at ~ 1.16).

Best Regards ValueS

I wouldn't belittle an additional 1600 bopd, with a realised price $84.3/b, this means an additional gross revenue of more than $24.5m over 6 months period. About $9m end up in GKP's bank account. The costs are shared with MOL and are recoverable!

Best Regards ValueS

Well, initial market reaction looks good, despite Brent falling back to where it was when the GKP SP was @ 231p. Not only it held yesterday's closing price of 242p after a euphoric rise in Brent but actually increased on it by more than 1.5 % as I type!.

Best Regards ValueS

GKP stated in the 24th June RNS that the cash balance was $247.0 m as at 23/06/2022.
Since then $75 m in two dividend payments and ~ $107 m in bond redemption payment. Leaving $65 m.
Two payments were received one in July: $38.1 m and today: $43.9 m = $82 m.
Thus cash balance = $65 m + $82 m = $147 m less costs payed since 24/06/2022.

Market cap @ 257.5p = £556.8 m. At current GBP/USD of 1.18 this equates to $657 m.

Best Regards ValueS

Just hit £2.50 :)

Profit Oil: small potato; but REAL chips ;)

I am not sure that "Shakan" is the same as "Shaikhan". There is no Russian company interest in Shaikhan field. Just GKP (80% WI) and Mol (20% WI).

I did! 2500 shares @ 204.5 from dividend money! Can't believe I could buy GKP below 205 with Brent @ $101+.

Also, April is 30 days, 1 day less than March.

"More like £1.42 per FD share"

1- The CRP (a near cash item) will never go to zero, there will always be CO for as long as there are costs to recover.
2- Possible uplift in production rate, 50 kbopd might be achieved by end of 2022. A second rig was reported to have been hired already!

for the above 2 reasons alone I've given an extra ~ 20%.

Best Regards ValueS

So, by end of 2022:
Cash + near cash ~ 170 p per share, which means potential risk = 15% on today's close.
Potential reward (assuming a TP = 300 p) = 50%; PoO could go up again!

The risk/reward balance is clear.

Best Regards ValueS

"Smart investors appear to agree: three energy gurus led by Warren Buffett himself have chosen to follow the Oracle's time-tested market wisdom of being fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Over the last few weeks, Buffett, Jerry Jones and Harold Hamm--three of the richest and most successful businessmen in the U.S.-- have doubled down on their oil and gas bets, using the selloff as a buying opportunity."

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Should-You-Buy-The-Oil-Price-Dip.html

Best RegardsValueS

Thanks for your explanation @theoryman, but still it doesn't add up to me.