Member Info for Valuation-it-is

CK - This bit stood out:-
"By the time we get into early-stage production, which is the time I would like to exit and hand over to the major mining companies, I consider maybe 0.8x to 1.0x NPV and therefore make my 3x to 4x without having to make an assumption about what commodity prices are going to be."
So he is looking to make 3-4 times on his investment in CUSN over the next 4 years.

CL is putting a number of resolutions forward to shareholders which if passed will enable it to become a plc. Then it will be able to offer shares to the public to raise funding to take it to commercial production. Progress!

Perhaps it would be worthwhile for someone in PHE to contact HMG to suggest an alternative to incineration of these thousands of tonnes of plastic waste?

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/metalsacquisition/files/March_2022_Investor_Presentation.pdf

Follow SEDI:CUSN link on https://ceo.ca/cusn

Paul2566
673,218 was the cumulative number of shares shorted and still outstanding. So the daily movement is calculated by looking at the change in the cumulative position. It is a small percentage of the shares in issue, now 531,248, 490 including the shares recently placed. However a large proportion of those shares are subject to a lock-in for 12 months from the date of listing, more are subject to a shorter lock-in and many of the rest are tightly held by long term investors. So daily volumes can be quite small. So the share price is likely to have been affected by the short, especially if someone else was also taking profits and selling shares actually held.

Many thanks Troajan, interesting indeed.

A large move on LME copper stockpiles today - over 20,000t shipped - 15% of the total inventory!

Paul2566
I can see the short position in the Toronto market by looking at :-
https://ceo.ca/cusn
In the top left hand corner there is a graph. Underneath it there is a heading marked Shorts. By looking at that every day I can see whether new short positions have been taken out/stopped. There is also an arrow which show the latest change in total position be it up or down. Yesterday, I noticed the short position had jumped by about 600,000 shares.

Someone is going short of shares i.e. selling shares they do not own, and has driven the price down in Toronto today on low volume. At some point they will have to buy back. It seems a dangerous time to go short with both the ITA conference starting in Toronto shortly followed by PDAC the week after, both of which may raise interest in tin and CUSN.

Xpondsimms
The 2017 PEA may help
It states
"The underground mine production has been scheduled at a steady-state rate of 1,000 tpd on a 7
day work schedule but could be scheduled at 1,200 tpd on a 6 day schedule."
On page 168 it states;-
"Average process recoveries of 88% for Sn, 85% for Cu, and 70% for Zn. "
The historical recovery when done by Wheal Jane in the last few years ( 1988 on) had improved on the recovery rate when done at SC because WJ used a flotation circuit to boost recovery from fines as well as an HMS circuit. I think the PEA for SC envisages that too.
This may help:-
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/089268759390056S

COSTS from table 22.2 of the 2017 PEA (for the third year of production)
This envisages 35o,ooo of ore produced, at a head grade of 1.58%, a process recovery rate of 88%, Recovered lb's SnEq of 10.73 million lbs.

Mining $ / tonne 66.72
Processing $/tonne 23.18
G&A & Closure $/tonne processed 9.78
TOTAL COST $/tonne processed 99.69
ALL INCLUSIVE COST (C2) $/tonne 153.45

Result US$ 40.4m of pre tax cash earnings in year 3 when production levels are near normal.

The PEA (available on sedar) and therefore the above figures - needs to be updated for a much increased tin price, an increase in resources due to exploration work and cost inflation. But the above hopefully gives you some idea of the potential from SC alone.

Carliol
I think it would be difficult for a major to takeover CUSN without VBR's backing. Given Sir Mick's character and record, I don't think he would let his holding in CUSN go cheaply. I believe he is looking for a 3-4 times return in 3-4 years according to his U Tube statements. He might be tempted if he could double in 12 months perhaps. That would probably depend if there is another equally good opportunity to put the money into. If you know of one - do tell us.

Carliol
Given the large stake that VBR currently has, and given it can increase that stake by exercising its warrants to around 44% if I remember correctly, VBR could be highly influential in delivering CUSN to a bidder. But given what Sir Mick is trying to achieve with his vehicle, a full takeover by VBR must also be a possibility. Perhaps VBR would wait until exploration results are available ( and published) so as to know more about the upside potential. We can however see where the potential may go by looking at page 8 of the current version of the company presentation:-
https://cornishmetals.com/site/assets/files/4930/cusn_corporate_ppt_may_2022-compressed.pdf
That (in the graph on the RHS) currently shows indicated and inferred resources of 4 m tonnes, but potential of 18-21 m tonnes. My view is that the exploration planned will hope to move the indicated+ inferred resource from 4m towards the 18-21m. If we took 20m t as an example, with a 1.6% level of contained tin, that would equate to 320,000 t of contained tin. At US$35k /t, that would be valued at $11.2bn. To that we would need to apply a recovery rate and costs, but it seems that there is huge potential upside from South Crofty if all goes well. In the near term we will also have exploration news from UD to add to the excitement.

This is likely to arouse interest in tin companies and investing in them. The conference takes place from 7-9 June 2022

And here is a link to the programme:-
https://www.internationaltin.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/2022-International-Tin-Conference-Advance-Programme-draft-V13.pdf
Richard Williams President, CEO and Director of CUSN (https://cornishmetals.com/corporate/team/directors/)
will be presenting to the conference on 9th Jun at 11.20am Toronto time on the subject of South Crofty.
I think this will raise interest in investing in Cornish Metals.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/mining/copper-prices-tipped-to-go-ballistic-as-ev-revolution-causes-supplies-to-run-out/news-story/a96b3f0f2f55453cab9f03dcf286af4c

At £0.63271453 per C$ that equates to around 31 pence.

https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/CUSN
and
https://ceo.ca/cusn

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1618537/uk-gigafactory-lotus-aston-martin-elon-musk-britishvolt-prologis-west-midlands-Northumberl

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-F_jJhhER0

Good morning MO
If the share price goes above the warrant exercise price that does not trigger anything apart from some opportunities. The warrant holders have the option (I stress option) to exercise any time over the 36 months from issue but no obligation. We should also consider the lock-in. The new shareholders are not allowed to sell their new shares for 12 months. So if they exercise their warrants they will be unable to sell their placing shares to pay for them. There will be no quick profit taking.
I will have to look up and see what the contract says about a lock in on shares issued as a result of warrant exercise, i.e.whether or not those have to be held for 12 months too.
The very good news for all shareholders is that the value in CUSN is being recognised and as a result the likelihood of the warrants being exercised is increasing. That then means the financing to finish the job is more likely to fall into place, and the large discount in the share price relative to NPV reflecting the risk of not finishing the job/financing the plant, will diminish. As the discount diminishes the share price should rise further. A virtuous circle. But beware. It can work the other way. A vicious circle. If the share price falls, then warrant exercise my look less likely and finance/ finishing the job also, leading to a further share price fall. My money is on a virtuous circle.

The share price in Canada is now around the level at which the warrants are exercisable, i.e. C$0.45 or 27 p.