Member Info for Valuation-it-is

I think it would be possible to speed it up by a few months if all finance were available up front, but risk is reduced by proceeding in stages. A rise in the tin price would help boost confidence perhaps sufficiently to achieve all finance up front.

And that is what is happening at the moment.

Maybe Russian Finance Ministry buying - like gold?

With stocks dwindling, the news of stimulus in China seems to have caused a jump in the tin price. ......

Good news for CUSN.

Gingy

I don't think we have heard that the successful candidate (for CEO) has been appointed yet. I think we are waiting to hear if he will receive a work visa.

Since flotation - 16/2/21, -the tin price has RISEN around 60%, whilst the share price has fallen around 36%.

Since the successful closing of the last fund raise on 24/5/22 when VBR paid £25m for a 27.18% stake at 18p per share, the tin price has fluctuated but is now the same as it was on 24/5/22, but the share price has fallen to 6.4p down about 64%.

The part of the company that VBR does not own is now valued at £25.4m, i.e. about the same as it paid for its initial 27% stake.

Since the fund raise, the resources have increased, the wide formation found, and a new PEA published which showed an increased NBV of the SC project of US $201m, up from the 2017 PEA NBV of US$130.5m despite the use of a higher discount rate in the 2024 calculation. i.e. 8% rather than 5%.

The outlook for the tin price appears to be good with a forecast supply demand mismatch (shortfall in supply ) expected shortly after CUSN goes into production.....................

Whats the catch? The finding of finance to go into production?

VBR and connected parties seem well capable of providing the necessary finance and appear to be continuing in their support of the company.

What are the views of other investors here?

Hi Gingy on 6/1/22 it got to 28.5p. ( It started trading on AIM on 16/2/21)

In relation to part two of the preceding post a link to the 2024 PEA is

https://cornishmetals.com/site/assets/files/4962/0423037_south_crofty_pea_-_24_may_2024_sedar.pdf

It can take a while to download.

Sales of a US $ denominated product - tin - will give a revenue stream in US$. So it will make sense to match the expected revenues with costs as far as possible in US$ to minimise currency risks. The most obvious of these is finance cost. So I would expect debt finance for either project finance or going private to be US $ based. This has just got cheaper.

Furthermore, the 8% discount factor within the PEA ( see page 301) which gave the $201m NBV, may now be adjusted down as a result of the Fed move yesterday bringing about a boost to the NBV. So good news on two fronts ..........................

Financing/Going private just got cheaper following yesterday's interest rate cut by the Fed.

Aiminvestor/Argenta

You still have not responded to my question - are you connected to/employed by/contracted to First Tin? You spend a lot of time promoting a large list of companies on ProActive perhaps you take on more sinister roles as well.

The scare that arose from the rumour was that water was flooding in from surrounding mines. That has been refuted by RNS as sourced in my last post. If that does not satisfy you then perhaps you should indeed invest elsewhere and probably not in equities which rely on reliable information by RNS. You spend a lot of time promoting a great many companies, surely you can find one that satisfies you?

Meanwhile you have not refuted/answered/denied my query...................................................

Aiminvestor

Your unfounded concern about water leaking in from other mines, was addressed officially in the RNS of 11 July 2024.

The official statement made was and I quote "· South Crofty is not hydrologically connected to neighbouring historic mines and natural groundwater inflows are exactly in-line with pre-dewatering predictions, which were modelled using historic dewatering rates, the known volume of underground voids and the groundwater rebound that was measured after the mine closed in 1998;"

Try reverting to your other "concern"...............................................................

Are you connected to First Tin perhaps?

BBN

Many thanks for your response. 12/9/24 12.05

Re "I was also told that up until now deals with suppliers were about single module supply. These now need to be turned into bulk deals for multiple take offs. Why it hasn't been done already is anyone's guess but that is what I was told."

I would think there are a number of reasons why bulk deals have not been negotiated yet.

First prototype performance validation occurred in February. So no company would bulk order before then. After that management time was focused on raising the cash to proceed taking us to April. Then the company would need time to work out how best to manufacture the validated product, only when that has been completed could bulk orders for components be negotiated with suppliers, and negotiation in a Summer holiday period are likely to be delayed.

Compound the above with key members of the board being in different places and you end up with delays as noted in the RNS as "despite disappointing delays in closing sales in the year to date, customer interest in Invinity's products remains strong."

You also have political uncertainty arising in the UK and US which would cause further delays in receiving orders, which would make finalisation of bulk orders with suppliers difficult.

Growing pains............... But the market perceives and imagines big risks when these become evident. Further information flow should help.

Many thanks David for some most interesting posts.

Lets hope the MoD and GB Energy have read them.

BBN

Many thanks for sharing the information with us all. Somewhat re-assuring. It would also be helpful to know what costs have to be reduced and to what extent, so as to be able to assess whether their reduction is likely to be achieved.

David Roberts

Where is that - or is it classified info?

PRK1

Irene is i/c investor relations - very pleasant and helpful.

irene@cornishmetals.com

It is important that the company knows if you are a shareholder, so that they can contact you if they have a discounted share offer- which is likely to be the case if there is a placing. If you have your shares in an ISA for example the shares have to be held by a nominee, in which case the owner is not known to the company and contact from the company is unlikely unless you make yourself known directly.

What will come next?

Headline in Telegraph paper

Putin threatens to cut off West’s nuclear industry from Russian uranium

11 September 2024 • 7:22pm .

Gingy

Existing equity investors, new equity investors, banks/I.I.s for loans, tin users, tin traders, royalty buyers are all likely to be in the frame. If your shares are held in a nominee a/c i.e. not in your own name, make sure the company ( Irene) knows how to contact you.

Of particular interest is

"Pursuant to section 206 of the CBCA, the governing corporate statute of the Company, if, within 120 days

after the commencement of a takeover bid, the bid has been accepted by holders of not less than 90 per

cent. of the shares of the target issuer (other than any shares of the target issuer held by the offeror at the

date of the commencement of the takeover bid), the offeror is entitled, upon complying with the requirements

set out under section 206 of the CBCA, to acquire the shares held by the dissenting shareholders."

I take that to mean 90% of the shares that are not already in the hands of the offeror. Anybody able to confirm?