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George in Cornwall

Also, we may find there is a ongoing competition between the EU( through the EIB) , the US (EXIM bank) and the UK (National Wealth fund) to provide the funding that Hemerdon needs. Whoever offers the best deal is likely to walk away with an offtake agreement thus securing supplies for their own strategic purposes.

It would be disastrous if the UK loses control of the supplies of this critical metal to either the US or the Europeans, when our own industry needs the material in order to survive, and the UK needs the armaments. Once the TUN plant is re-activated, then SML ore (likely 4-5 times as rich as Hemerdon ore but still not proven) would likely be in high demand for a number of reasons. (But the mine has to be built first. )

Who wins at Hemerdon is likely to be known by 31/12/25 so expect big news flow by then.

George in Cornwall

The shortage is probably caused by demand for armaments being made in China, North Korea and Russia. The west needs tungsten for its re-armament programme. The way to provide tungsten quickly, is for the Environment Agency to allow the Hemerdon plant to start processing the resource in the Mine waste facility. That material does not require mining, crushing/ cominuition, but can be fed straight into the back end ot the Hemerdon plant. While that is happening, the small amount of funding required to rebuild the front end of the plant can be put to work and the whole plant re-started in 12 months time.

The fact this has not happened already shows HMG is not up to speed and is still going through a laborious consultation phase. Even the critical minerals strategy document was delayed in publication. The MoD needs to intervene.

Https://www.metal.com/Tin/LME_SN_3M

Https://www.metal.com/Tin/LME_SN_3M

Stockandstuff

Expect newsflow shortly. MacDonald - Business SEcretary is seeing the mining companies in Cornwall today - hopefully to spell out the practical impact on them of the Critical Minerals strategy published over the weekend.

StocksandStuff

Thanks for the compliment re the post. When comparing the two companies bear also in mind

1. The grades here although much higher (4-5 times) the proven resource -tonnes ore- is I think a lot smaller+ It costs money to drill to prove up a resource.

2.TUN needs only £40m to get into production whereas SML needs to build both a mine and processing plant (guessing at £400m-£500m) or use someone else's facilities if available

3. After financing, TUN needs only 12 months preparation to get into production, whilst for SML its probably 5-8 years affecting the NPV......

4. TUN is open pit, SML likely to be underground - low cost vs high cost before adjusting for 1 above.

But there may be a huge amount to be gained by puttting them together by merger or takeover,

Slurm

If the EXIM bank funds Tungsten WEst, then the US will be controlling what happens to tungsten from that processing plant.

Peoplepower1

Re Comparison with South Crofty capital cost.

SC already has shafts, a decline and other infrastructure in place. So Redmoor costs would be higher. Ofsetting that slightly, SC has opted to go down a contracting out route rather than self-build route which is more expensive. For Redmoor, the route to production (self build vs contracted out) is not decided as is the case for connections to road infrastructure.

What might make a huge difference both in up front capex cost and in timing of the production start, is whether Redmoor production is processed on site or taken off site to Hemerdon or South Crofty or even elsewhere via Plymouth port. However both Hemerdon MWF and SC's process plant are likely to be fully utilised for 10 years, or more, so why would they process ore for SML? Answer - Only if it is made more profitable than processing their own ore. Another factor is the polymetallic nature of Redmoor ore, which might not be suitable for SC /Hemerdon processing plant. Looks to me as if SML will have to build its own plant at a greater cost than that of SC. . Still potentially a very attractive proposition with high grade ore and large granulation. Data to come will provide further light on the possibilities.

Grant 66

The conversion of the Loan notes will add 1 bn shares so there will be approx 1.2bn shares listed . Hopefully most shareholders already know this. At the current share price of 11.5p the market cap of those 1.2bn would be £138m. That compares with the NPV of the project of over $600m= £458m at current tungsten prices/forex rates . To get into production a further £40m of equity is thought to be needed, that would take the mkt cap to £178m or over a 60% discount to the project NPV at current tungsten prices.

This is a highly geared exposure to the price of tungsten and tin. At the moment demand is pushing the price of both up especially tungsten. Given the demand is growing because of use in munitions / limitations on supply from China, the outlook for TUN is better than it has been for several years albeit with considerable risk.

Good points London. And as the tin and tungsten prices rise, not only does the NPV rise, but also the funding risk diminishes leading to a higher proportion of the NPV being appropriate for the valuation of the shares

Now u[dated

https://www.strategicminerals.net/docs/Strategic-Minerals-Plc-Investor-Presentation-November-2025.pdf

Hamilton - Yours is the most useful post today.

It is likely they will be using the presentation on the website - perhaps updated.

https://www.strategicminerals.net/docs/Strategic-Minerals-Plc-Investor-Presentation-October-2025.pdf

Https://discoveryalert.com.au/china-export-restrictions-tungsten-antimony-2025/

Pro rataing the NPV using the sensivity as per page 16 of the presentation gives an NPV of $642m at the current price of APT.

Now at $698 per mtu,, so NPV through the roof. Buyers of Tungsten are clearly going to be interested in paying for offtake agreements

China is probably prioritising tungsten for N Korea, Russia and its own armaments manufacturing.

Stocksandstuff

https://www.fastmarkets.com/commodity-prices/tungsten-apt-88-5-wo3-min-fob-main-ports-china-dollar-mtu-wo3-mb-w-0003/

" NPV is already $400m and will likely double when the recent drill results are incorporated. One word DESPERATE. "

And the market cap is still only £42.5m..............

NPV of the project adjusted for the current price of APT, is nearing $600m .........................

US and EU in competition for the output.....

APT rising in price.......

The 6th Nov onwards should be a very interesting time.

Https://news.metal.com/newscontent/103602043/APT-Long-Term-Contract-Prices-Surge-Significantly-Tungsten-Market-Repeatedly-Hits-New-Highs-[SMM-Tungsten-Daily-Review]