The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Gingy - I agree But lets look to see
1.if the price of tin stays above $30k/tonne.
2. If the exploration results continue to be encouraging
3. How the finance for the process plant is structured.
Given the rise in metal prices, other areas of exploration - UD, Gwinear may be worth bringing forward
And another report
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/lme-bans-russian-origin-metal-after-uk-us-impose-new-sanctions/ar-BB1lzrPg
Croissant
My understanding of the new plan is different to yours. Whereas the plan had been to ramp up slowly over several years, I think they are now aiming to go for a much quicker ramp up.
Actually the previous effort did work, finally in the company's last week or two giving the recovery rates targeted. Unfortunately the news came too late to raise the necessary finance and the company went bust.
This time around there will also be a number of improvements to the flow sheet................. assuming the permit is granted by the EA.
Good to see you back on the board MO. Good luck. Electrification metals seem to be having a run up in price at last.
The market will soon wake up to the impact of the higher tin price on the outllook and NPV of CUSN.
Metal prices are melting upwards..........................Share prices to follow.
Gingy
The difference it will make will be very significant, but as you say, not in the normal way for a producing company.
CUSN's future relies on being able to produce a positive economic assessment and then an attractive Feasibility study, for the investors who will fund the building of the processing plant. The 2017 Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA), whilst now out of date, gave an idea of the sensitivity of the NPV to tin prices. Not surprisingly the NPV is very sensitive to tin prices. Section 22.4 of the PEA, (available on SEDAR) starting on page 170, discusses key sensitivities. The first line of table 22.3 shows that a 10% increase in the price of tin moved the NPV of the project up by 44%. Whilst it is almost certain that the figures have changed since 2017, that does give a guide as to what to expect.
Since its low in November the tin price, as reflected in the price of the tin driven ETC “TINM” has risen not 10%, but 40% and more today. That price move, if maintained, will make a huge difference to the NPV of the project and make its financing much more attractive and less risky, to providers of capital, be it project finance, off-take agreements, debt, equity etc. i.e. make the realisation of the value of the project much more likely, and give the realisation a much bigger NPV.
Tin and tungsten prices are heading up. Good news for us, and good news for Tungsten West - which is perhaps our best hope for processing any output from Redmoor.
Take a look at the graph of "TINM" - a tin based ETC. The move up in the tin price will be catching the eye of tin investors who will be likely to add to the buying pressure.
Tin is Tungsten West's secondary product. Again very helpful for the financing effort.
All we need is for aggregate prices to lift off to achieve a hat trick.
Couldn't come at a better time for TUN. It will hopefully make financing much easier.
https://news.metal.com/newscontent/102703327/tungsten-prices-hit-highest-in-over-ten-years-many-tungsten-companies-continued-to-increase-long-term-order-quotations-smm-comments
Gingy
You might find Fawzi Hanano's comments at 8.20 onwards particularly helpful in this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEx8NGsfD4M
Https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1886188/china-rare-metal-gallium-price
It would perhaps be helpful to split capex into two components. Necessary maintenance capex, i.e. that capex which is required to maintain the EBITDA at the current level, and expansionary capex which is that needed to expand the business and increase the EBITDA.
The former should be deducted from the EBITDA when calculating the ratio, the latter not.
The resulting ratio can then be compared with the sector average, calculated the same way with appropriate discounts for being a "minnow"/more risky.
Gingy
The Preliminary Economic Assessment (“PEA”) is expected to be published in Q2 2024 to provide interim guidance ahead of the publication of the Feasibility Study (news release dated January 17, 2024).
Source:-https://cornishmetals.com/news/2024/cornish-metals-releases-audited-financial-statements-and-managements-discussion-and-analysis-for-the-period-ended-december-31/
"At closing VBR will enter into a relationship agreement with Cornish Metals and its nominated adviser to ensure that the company can continue to operate independently."
Source:- https://www.vision-blue.com/news/vision-blue-resources-strategic-investment-in-cornish-metals/