Member Info for Valuation-it-is

Now $655/mtu

https://www.metal.com/Tungsten/201308090019

Hi Gingy

Re :- " I don't understand why they haven't taken the offer"

As I understand it the LoI (offer) is dependent on a US customer(s) concluding an offtake agreement with TUN. (Exact wording was "..is predicated upon the Project's offtake agreement with U.S. buyers..."

There must be a number of potential off takers, so I expect that TUN management is having talks with a number of US parties in order to get the best deal.

The same process is probably going on with European buyers of tungsten, who may offer funding themselves or get the EU to offer funding on their behalf.

What would liven things up a lot more is if we find a Chinese buyer has entered the bidding for APT.

HMG could do with some bargaining chips (or cards as Trump calls them) in its dealings with the US and the resources in the SW - tin, tungsten copper and lithium stand out as filling that role. However HMG is short of cash, and introverted at present. Lets hope the NWF is thinking of another critical metals venture - having already invested in Cornish Metals (for tin) and Cornish Lithium (for lithium).................................I think we may find NWF provides some debt or equity finance and secures part of the TUN production potential for the UK arms manufacturers.

40034427

On 2/7/25 the TUN announcement included the following: "Following the receipt of the proceeds under Tranche H, the total amount outstanding under the CLNs, including interest accrued thereon to 01 July 2025, is approximately £29.2 million. The maturity date for the CLNs is 31 December 2025."

I am working on the basis of around 1.07bn new shares being issued when the CLNs mature. At the current market price of 10p that would add £107m to the current £20.6m market cap (including options and warrants) , leaving it at around £127.6m which hopefully will enable $95m+ of debt to be issued.

The project NPV (ungeared) at an APT price of $600/mtu ( price today $630 => see https://www.metal.com/Tungsten/201308090019 ) I estimate to be just under $500m, so perhaps a little more if the project is geared.

All very encouraging, if the price of APT stays where it is and the likes of EXIM give the thumbs up to the flowsheet etc. .

What would add further spice is if several offtakers join the competition to obtain the APT supplies and funding costs are squeezed down. The EU has woken up, will HMG ?

Gentle1619 8.53am Another interesting and positive post - thanks.

Do you have an idea as to what production capacity Invinity has? If all the potential results in orders, is there a going to be a severe supply constraint?

Co now out of closed period so newsflow should improve.

Key points from announcement.

Going Concern (quote)

"The Group is still in the pre-production phase of operations and meets its day to day working capital requirements by utilising cash reserves from investment made in the Group. Over the last year this has been dependent on raising funds via issues of convertible loan notes (CLN). There is no signed commitment from investors to provide further funds under the existing CLN agreement. The Group previously notified CLN holders of multiple defaults of the terms of the CLN agreement. A waiver was subsequently agreed and is in place until 31 December 2025. If further defaults were to arise, or the terms of the waiver be breached or expire before conversion, the notes can be called in for immediate redemption.

At the year-end, the Group had £0.02 million in cash reserves and £2.1 million in late August 2025. The Group expects to supplement its cash reserves through product sales and recovery of amounts previously paid to an equipment supplier for a cancelled order (of £0.7m). The recovery of the amount from the equipment supplier is still subject to negotiation however, the Board believes that this amount will be recoverable during 2025. If these inflows do not arise as expected cash reserves will be depleted sooner than forecast below. If the Group has not completed a major fundraising in late 2025 then it will be need to raise additional short-term funding."

Chances of that are looking good with both EU and US (EXIM bank) recognition, undoutedly boosted by ( again a quote)

" China being a producer of over 80% of the world's tungsten, introduced significant export restrictions in February 2025, and exports have effectively ceased since this time. This has placed unprecedented stress on the global supply chain for tungsten, making the re-start of Hemerdon vital for our down-stream off-takers. We are in close dialogue with all our down-stream partners and appreciate their continued support to assist the Company in progressing its funding discussions to enable us to come on-line as quickly as possible to meet their needs."

Https://www.metal.com/Tungsten/201308090019

If China is gearing up for war, then it will want to make sure the West is short of tungsten for the next few years. That is what seems to be going on.

Hemerdon is becoming a highly prized asset. Lets hope HMG wakes up and ensures there is some offtake for the UK.

PJ It is good news but remember that the CULNs have to be converted which will increase the number of shares as will the issue for the final funding round. I posted earlier about the numbers involved.

Hi PJ

Have you hada look through the June presentation?

https://www.tungstenwest.com/_files/ugd/3e92e8_932957c5a3aa4ddfb3e2a5d38720f7ea.pdf

Pj70

TUN has a lean management team, who are probably now fully occupied with the main task - i.e. raising the finance to re-build the front end of the processing plant and get into production.

The reasons behind the running out of cash and subsequent failure were varied and complex.

Plant downtime - inadequate utilisation due to clogging/breakdown problems (friability of ore components) and lack of stockpiles at key processing stages

Plant set up for wrong mineral. Inadequate recovery rate. Contract penalty payments -inability to produce quality contracted/ inability to produce quantity. LFN problems. Key management not on site/abroad....

Dear Major Oak It is good to hear from you again. It has indeed been a long time. I am so sorry you have been infected and affected the way you have. Thank you for your posting as it serves a warning to the rest of us to continue to be careful and not take our health for granted. I can tell is an effort for you.

I hope you enjoy reading the posts others make.

After a long period when it looked as if all was lost for TUN, the increased demand for APT has pushed the price just in time to perhaps more than save the day. It looks as if off takers may be keen to provide the funding required - and battle may commence between them. I dont think EXIM bank specified any one of them in particular so TUN may benefit from a bit of healthy competition. Hopefully they will not view the price move of the last month as a blip, but as recognition of the massive change in demand which is likely to be susteined for several years. . If the team at Hemerdon have done their sums correctly and got the flow sheet right, we may be looking at production in around 12 months time.

If the EA pulled their finger out and gave TUN permission to process the already mined and crushed resource in the waste facility they could be producing a lot sooner than that. And that would help with cash flow reducing the funding requirements for rebulding the front end for processing the rest. But Government departments do not have joined up thinking or reactions unless war comes along, so I guess we must just be patient.

On the Lithium front - which I remember interested you greatly, the Chinese have recently cut back their production and caused a rise in the price. However it seems that a leap of faith is required to provide more funding for the Lithium miners in the UK. One has to be sure that demand will increase massively by 2030 and push the price to at least double what it is now, for the UK companies to be able to put an attractive case together. I wish them luck but it is going to be an uphill battle. It is a shame that they have headwinds to battle against - high energy prices being one of them. I hope your investments in the foreign lithium companies are doing better.

I will look forward to your next post- when you feel up to it. Vis

..........heading for $600

https://www.metal.com/Tungsten/201308090019

There appears to be a growing shortage. A great time for TUN to be offering new supplies to the market. Offtakers must be stampeding to Hemerdon.

What a good idea. If the plastic bricks are 7 times stronger then they could be made hollow and still be as strong as a conventional brick. Therefore less material per brick, and insulation into the bargain. Do you know what colour they are?

Https://www.metal.com/Tungsten/201308090019

Https://www.metal.com/Tin/LME_SN_3M

Up $548 /T today.

Helpful for financing efforts. Now at $35,350/T some $4,350 or 14% above the price assumed in the PEA 2024.

Refers to the tin price.............

Moving towards $35k .........................

https://www.metal.com/Tin/LME_SN_3M

Good for the project NPV

Reports indicate the APT price has risen above $500 per mtu. That is more than 25% above the price assumed for the Feasibility study. So the estimated NPV of the project at this price is over $342m up from $190m.

Source:- See page 16 of Tungsten West presentation -link=>

https://www.tungstenwest.com/_files/ugd/3e92e8_932957c5a3aa4ddfb3e2a5d38720f7ea.pdf

This gives a project value per share of 21.7 US cents. (Assuming 1.573bn shares in issue after final financing )

Consider one is in a Labour seat, the other not.

With low grades this appears unlikely to achieve a low AISC, and therefore a query must arise about financing viability. Hopefully though the capex requirements are reduced by the assets already in place.