Member Info for Valuation-it-is

What the 56 and rising responses have shown is that there is strong support from existing shareholders for a rights issue. This in itself is great news for the share price, as anyone looking at this site will see, far from being concerned about a fund raise, existing shareholders are very positive about it and the vast majority of the sample would take up their rights if offered..
Well done everyone.

V111JAS 15.17

Not intending to poke anyone in the eye, and I agree finance houses do a worthwhile job.
However, I am keen that if anyone is going to be offered discounted shares so as to raise finance, it should be long suffering existing private investors.
Placings can be worthwhile if money is sought quickly, or if the amounts involved do not warrant the expense of rights issue documents and underwriting fees. However when PI's are severely disadvantaged, lose value, to people who just flip the shares and in so doing drive down the price to near the placing price, I am distinctly not a fan. In this case there is loads of promise in this company, many projects which offer an attractive return, profitability in prospect this year, so I sincerely hope PI's get their just desserts and the first bit of the cherry. My little effort is an attempt to make that prospect more likely.
Do you work for either of the company's brokers?

Where to begin?
"I appreciate it is great to offer shareholders a access to the placing, ....."

I fear you have misunderstood what I am banging on about.
If the company has a placing, it will likely be NOT with existing shareholders. It is likely it will be with new shareholders /clients of the new broker. In exchange for their cash/ and time getting to know a new company/risk they are running investing in a company they do not know or follow, typically, placees are offered a discount price. (At PHE the price in the market was approaching 10p and the placees (NOT EXISTING SHAREHOLDERS) got new shares at 5.5p) This means many placees just sell in the market for a quick profit, and that undermines the share price of the Long term holders. It also means that value is transferred from the LTH's to the placees. There can be advantages, but where existing shareholders are willing to take more shares, then it is not necessary to hand over value and the share price can be less affected. What this un-official survey is all about, is trying to see if a placing is not needed because a rights issue could be held instead.
From the feedback so far it looks as if a rights issue would probably fly, and underwriters would be getting fees for old rope. (So EQT may be in a position to negotiate smaller fees.)

At this stage it is not clear whether Cornish Lithium will have access to this pilot plant too......

From the Telegraph today @10.58am
"Government pours £3m into lithium extraction plant in Cornwall to spur EV development

Almost £3m of Government funding has been poured into a pilot lithium extraction plant to help speed up the development of the country’s electric vehicle supply chain.

British Lithium has secured a £2.9m grant from Innovate UK to build the plant in Cornwall, which aims to produce 21,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate a year within the next five years.

Lithium forms a central part of the batteries used to power the vast majority of electric vehicles. Elon Musk’s Tesla has constructed gigafactories to help produce lithium ion batteries at scale while companies in Europe and the UK are beginning to do the same."

“America, China and Europe all desperately want to attract EV plants,” said Roderick Smith, Chairman of British Lithium.

“The winners are going to be the EV producers and the losers will lose their car industries. In the UK, cars are our biggest export commodity and so economically speaking, nothing could be more important.”

The word is spreading........

https://www.mining.com/cornish-metals-granted-key-permit-for-united-downs/

Well the drilling is not going to be shallow but go down to 500m. ....... Apologies - I got that wrong.

"The first phase of the programme will focus on tracing the recently discovered high-grade copper-tin structure along strike and down to a depth of up to 500m. Thereafter, depending on success, we aim to conduct a second phase of infill drilling later in the year to enable a maiden mineral resource to be defined.

Interesting to see the kit - thanks for the link. As far as I am aware the Wheal Maid decline has not yet been uncovered /reopened. Lets hope that will soon change and the kit will soon be used.

Cornishknocker
Are there rigs which might fit down the Wheal Maid decline? I was wondering if they could save a lot of drilling by taking a compact drill kit a hundred metres down before they start.......

Hi Marc2

If you flip through this, you will find maps and photos of the sites where drilling will take place..

https://planning.cornwall.gov.uk/online-applications/applicationDetails.do?activeTab=documents&keyVal=QPGGISFG0JQ00

Do we know that Janus are selling ALL their holding? It may be they are just reducing, in which case they may finish selling sooner than we think............

Anyone know if PHE has used the placing money to put in orders for long lead items?

I think the drill holes are going to be shallow (200m?) in the first drill programme so perhaps they will only need one size. Do you know their start date? I think it is end of the month, but it would be interesting to go there to see it start. I guess the rig will look different to the U tube clip which show the Geothermal drilling last year.
I was interested to see they are going to cap and cover the holes. I would have thought they might want to use them again to assess mineralistion at greater depth at a later date. Marking the holes might save a couple of hundred metres of drilling perhaps - any thoughts?

Cornishknocker 23.23
Progress. I wonder which of the 5 sites they will start on and what date. I think the notification envisaged site 2 first. It will be interesting to see how quickly two rigs are employed - if indeed they use two and not one. Two would indicate a desire to get on with it, perhaps, but may dependent on rig availability.

The now 22x 2022 EPS seems a bit low to me. For a high growth stock, I would have thought 30x would be OK. But I guess patience is required.
Arden's DCF valuation probably does not include potential increases in the pipeline, and heaven knows the assumptions they have made to get figures for the next ten years. My guess is that they have been fairly conservative there though. The change in the discount rate 20% down to 12% is a huge move but 12% does seem more reasonable now the company is well established. As pipeline "hopes" move into signed deals the DCF will hopefully move up to reflect the changes.
I think your comparison of EQT with ITM is an interesting, and compelling one. It may mean that ITM is priced a bit over the top at the moment, but it seems to have made it onto the institutional radar which will have helped as do the comparisons with US stocks.
Janus must be kicking themselves now............
EQT looking good for an exciting 5 year run........

Good point re White family holding after July DR A. Made me feel a bit more positive!
I guess the family form the vast majority of the remaining locked in overhang.

Why would you rather take 4.8p now, rather than the market price in July?
The answer is obvious. What is a shame is that this placing is at a price below that of the last placing.
When is a lock-in, not a lock-in?
I wonder why the directors of PHE felt obliged to break the lock-in clause?
The positives are
1.that a number of locked in shareholders chose to keep their shares rather than join in the placing. How many? - not worked it out yet.
2. That an institution chose to take 75% of the placing. One would hope they are up to speed with the Peel/PHE relationship.

Tim Yeo appears to talk at cross purposes:-
"It also pre-empts a potential share sale overhang when the hard lock-in period expires in July. All locked-in shareholders were offered the chance to sell and the substantial majority chose not to do so,.."
So the substantial majority presumably still form an overhang........

This is irritating, but I suppose par for the course with an AIM stock.
Have we had a financial close yet at Protos, or is that still awaiting agreement between the parties?

Worthy of further investigation was "There’s a decent lineup of copper deposits awaiting a financing decision, but many are located in jurisdictions with higher risk or longer permitting processes and have been delayed for years or even decades"
and
"Commodities Research Unit (CRU) predicts global copper mined production will fall from 20Mt to below 12Mt by 2034, leading to a supply shortfall of more than 15Mt."

268,270,157 SHARES AS OF THE LAST ANNOUNCEMENT

Good thinking. My view is that if the company confirms a new lode at anything like the grade recently discovered by Cornish Lithium, then the share price will take off. The UK price is at a discount to the Canadian share price, and the Canadians have been following it a lot longer. There will be many investors who will then want to increase their exposure and many new investors.
You might want to ask the company if pre-emption rights will be honoured if they have a fund raise for development at UD and SC. If so, you would be able to take part in a rights issue and not be diluted. Given the Government is keen to establish a vertically integrated industry - ore to wheels, it may even be possible that the company can tap ECGD or other funding.
I would imagine that banks would be interested in offering loan capital too, if the lode at UD is confirmed or if the tin price makes reopening SC an attractive proposition.

Great slide. Where is the picture taken and what is it of? It looks like a DMG unit, but I thought there were none up and running yet.