Member Info for Valuation-it-is

It looks to me if the one bought has manipulated the closing price or perhaps has changed the colour of recent trades.
Anyone else got a view on what this is about?

perkylad
The 1H statement last year stated
Adjusted operating profit increased by 50% to £4.9m (H1 2019: £3.3m)
So AOP this year is expected to be around £6.37m

The 2017 Preliminary Economic Assessment states that
(link https://cornishmetals.com/site/assets/files/4962/2017-03-31-scrofty-pea-c84ol6.pdf)
South Crofty is worth a NPV (after tax) of $130m at a tin price of $10/lb. (processing 2.575m tonnes)
On page 171 of 201 it shows a sensitivity analysis and a move in the tin price of $1 adds $56.6m to the NPV. (188.1- 130.5)
Currently the tin price is around $14.8 a lb. So a guide as to the NPV is (130+ 4.8x 56.6) or around $400m or £280m.
However since the PEA was written, CUSN has conducted more drilling exploration at South Crofty and issued the following statement:- (link https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/CUSN/news/5570565770434456/Cornish_Metals_Reports_HighGrade_Tin_Mineralisation_From_South_Crofty_Drill_Programme)

'....Proof of concept' drill program at South Crofty completed between June and September 2020 with promising high-grade tin and copper intersections, confirming the potential to increase the current mineral resource estimate....
Following that the RHS of Page 40 of the IPO presentation gives a flavour of the additional potential . See
https://cornishmetals.com/site/assets/files/4930/2020-05-01_cornish_metals_presentation_website-min.pdf
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So it looks as if the NPV will be enhanced considerably.
The NPV takes into account the costs of putting the mine back into production, and after allowing for calls on that value, can be compared to the market capitalisation of the company £35m. So it seems to me, that CUSN is being valued at something like 10% of the value of South Crofty after costs and after tax alone; with nothing in the market's valuation for the promising find at United Downs, nothing in for the 15,000 hectares of mining rights around Cornwall and nothing in for the company's interest in Cornish Lithium. Given the economic backdrop, the Government's desire to encourage EV's and G7 in Cornwall next month, it is seldom an investment opportunity like this comes along.
Anyone see any flaws in the logic?

https://www.lme.com/Metals/Non-ferrous/Tin#tabIndex=2
https://www.lme.com/Metals/Non-ferrous/Copper#tabIndex=2

=15.52p (at 0.5857 £ to C$)
and from Pro-Active investors today:-

Cornish Metals Inc (LON:CUSN)(CVE:CUSN) lost C$1.6mln during the year to 31 January 2021, as exploration and evaluation work continued on its portfolio of assets in Cornwall.

During the financial year the company raised C$2.4mln and used it for a proof of concept' drill program at the famous South Crofty tin project and for general working capital purposes.

A new zone of high-grade copper-tin mineralization was also discovered at the United Downs exploration project in April 2020.

Cornish Metals closed out the year end with just over C$353,000 in the bank, but subsequently raised £8.2mln (C$14.4mln) in conjunction with its listing on AIM in February 2021.

Financing options are now being considered for the re-start of operations at South Crofty.

The company now plans an 18 month, 9,100 metre initial drilling programme at United Downs to advance the project to an inferred resource definition, fully funded from the proceeds arising from the London listing.

The tax would represent a huge proportion of the value being taken by the Chilean Government. Chile being the World's no1 producer of copper. The article states:-
The new version would charge a marginal rate of 15% on sales derived from copper prices of between $2 and $2.50 a pound and as much as 75% on cash generated from prices above $4. At current prices, the effective rate would be 21.5%..........
The attractions of producing in the UK may rise sharply.

https://www.mining.com/web/analysis-in-worlds-top-copper-region-political-risk-rises/

One of many big cos investing in smaller cos with resources?
Rio Tinto Canada is investing C$25.6 million for an 8% stake in Western Copper and Gold (TSX: WRN; NYSE-AM: WRN), which is advancing its copper-gold Casino project in the Yukon.
https://www.mining.com/rio-tinto-takes-strategic-stake-in-western-copper-and-gold/

Peru leftist copies Chile’s proposal for tax on copper boom (Chile is no1 producer, Peru no2)
Left-wing presidential candidate Pedro Castillo just added a tax on copper sales to his platform.
Bloomberg News | May 17, 2021 | 7:52 pm
https://www.mining.com/commodity/copper/

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/17b4f5be-b4f1-11eb-8f2a-87b6de480dfc

Copper rebounded after its first weekly loss in six, supported by concerns about political risk in key producer states and signs Chinese demand is picking up.
Top copper producer Chile is debating whether to raise royalties on miners while workers at London-listed BHP Group's operations centre in Santiago are threatening to strike.

In Peru, the number two producer, a little-known socialist candidate is leading in the polls, campaigning to redistribute mining wealth.
"Some 42pc of world copper mining production is under political uncertainty that could entail risks on future production," Juan Carlos Guajardo, head of Chilean consulting firm Plusmining, told Reuters.

But that uncertainty is supporting global copper prices.

Copper added 0.4pc to $10,280 a ton by 10:19am on the London Metal Exchange, after earlier gaining as much as 1.1pc. The metal hit $10,747.50 on May 10. Other metals were mostly higher, with zinc up 1% and nickel climbing 0.7pc.

Cornish Metals have an interest in Cornish Lithium so it handy to see how CL is progressing. They are contemplating another crowdfunding raise. Here is a link to a number of videos that they have recently uploaded.......
https://cornishlithium.com/news-and-media/videos/

The answer to your question
The share price is where it is, because of lack of publicity, analytical coverage, and institutional holders.
Once shareholders have spent the necessary time reading up about the companies they will realise the potential upside, and invest accordingly. Both companies have in fairness been held back by Covid, but as the BoDs start to get about and present their cases, word will spread and valuations may come into line with the realities.

From the Listing document page 18
"The Group holds extensive mineral rights in an underexplored region in the UK The Group’s mineral rights cover an area of approximately 15,000ha scattered throughout Cornwall, including the majority of the United Downs Project Area and the past producing South Crofty Mine. Some of these mineral rights cover old mines, such as the Wheal Alfred copper mine at Gwinear, that were historically worked for copper, tin, zinc and tungsten. Through these extensive mineral rights, the Company has exposure to three essential battery metals through two significant projects (copper, tin) and a free carried interest on a third (lithium). Cornwall has a rich history in mining high grade copper lodes, with an estimated 1Mt of copper mined over the past centuries, mostly using primitive methods. Whilst there have been over 2,000 documented mines in Cornwall, there has been very little modern exploration applied to this region, the last period being in the 1960s when four new mines were discovered and put into production. The discovery of high-grade copper and tin mineralisation within 100m of surface at United Downs is testament to the exploration potential of the region. "

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKarlMJDwmA

"Potentially 150,000 tonnes of tin" ... at $30,000+ per tonne that s a huge amount of value to release from SC.
Weekend entertainment and wonder:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9SD1Z1f0ac

CK 13.58 Tin price to double maybe treble... Lots of acreage unexplored in decades.. certainly a bullish chat. Thanks for the link....
Re Osisko Dev. Given they have C$ 200m on their balance sheet as at end March 21, do you have any idea why they let their % ownership drop to 20% in the last raise?

Operastar

I read somewhere that the total cot is £26m, including the (expensive) unit to produce hydrogen rather than just electricity and heat.
Not a reliable figure perhaps, but a lot more than the £8m being talked about on this site when I first arrived about 6 months ago. I think that is probably a 35 tonne per day unit. These figures from memory.......
I may have misunderstood the RNS, but I assumed that PHE were using £3.8m OF the fund raise to provide a loan to the SPV.
Why is PHE raising the loan if Peel are the developer? One can only guess or ask..... I reckon Peel lost a lot of rental income last year. (See their accounts signed off in Autumn 20) That probably coincided with the price of a DMG going up, and we can only guess by joining the dots up.

Bubble2021 Shareholdings
Please see the Listing document page 252 (on the document not the search box), here is a link
https://cornishmetals.com/site/assets/files/5388/cornish_metals_inc_-_admission_document_final_10-02-21.pdf
+ updates on TR1 notices.

CK Great point - Clearly they are committed to getting CUSN into production

Any idea how deep Osisko pockets are?