Member Info for Valuation-it-is

Anyone know if Peel are constrained by a lock in period for their potential purchase of 371m shares - raising £10m?
It appears the price they are going to pay is around 2.6954p per share.
Shareholders are told that the company is offering a capital light operating model - i.e. licensing the IP to bring in royalties to avoid having to raise capital by way of share issues to finance building the plant, but that does not stop them issuing shares for other purposes. Two heavily discounted issues in one year is testing my patience.

Nuthazard 11.42

If 2023 refers to completion of testing of the plant, it is to be hoped that the plant will be built some considerable time beforehand. It is this misunderstanding which appears to have shaken confidence in the company and knocked the share price.

SW'er Great post.
Re: " Moreover it shows if they left that lode behind, what else is there out there in this area?"
The presentation that followed the AGM, I think mentioned three lodes being explored at UD perhaps more, the "Lithium lode, Trenares and I think it was a deep one below Mt Wellington. ( Page 9 of the current website presentation - being updated-
https://www.cornishmetals.com/site/assets/files/4930/2020-05-01_cornish_metals_presentation_website-min.pdf
mentions discovery of 6 in 2020 and states ongoing "test of 3 lodes over a 1,000m strike length to a depth of 500m in the initial phase. Up to 7 further mineralised lode structures also to be tested." .) You are absolutely right, if these have not been found in the past what more is to be found?
I think a lot at depth. Using modern methods of exploration - cheaper/ quicker I think there will be rich mineralisation found at depth in many places in the 15,000 hectares of mineral rights. It seems to me that the deeper lodes have a greater percentage of ore, which offsets the increased cost of going deeper. SW'er and CK would be better to listen to on this than me. Given CUSN needs around $100m to release many times that number in profits from SC, they are probably waiting to see if a near surface mine at UD can provide the funding for SC, obviating the need for a big raise. However they said in the post AGM presentation that they would not be using existing workings for UD - not sure that rules out the Wheal Maid Decline- but if so, UD itself may need significant finance. Given the way the tin and copper prices are going, I don't think CUSN are dependent on UD, but if UD works out well, SC's financing needs might be considerably reduced.
The company mentioned that Cornwall Council wish to invest, and that the UK Government's diplomatic service are sounding out potential investors or others who can help speed up the projects.
Given there is a lot of exploration going on, I think shareholders can expect regular newsflow.

https://www.mining.com/goldman-recapitulates-5-a-pound-copper-price-by-end-2021/

Bought from the receivers for a few million, now being floated at a valuation near £100m? What has the management team done or what has happened, to justify the uplift ?
Having asked that question, it may be worth £200m.....................

Many thanks Dr A.
Vii

DR A A few questions on your "Round the corner" thoughts

Would you like to expand on why you think there will be a HUI partnership agreement? Is the strategy not to take royalties in exchange for letting HUI use PHE's Intellectual property? How do you think the agreement will differ from that?
When do you think EU funding for Poland will be announced? What makes you think it has been approved and is just around the corner?
And re the 10% Peel holding being taken up, what leads you to think Peel will invest in PHE rather than just the projects themselves? Do you think that 10% would be bought in the market or be granted by way of a placing?
And would it be cheaper for Peel to buy PHE rather than pay a licence fee? Exclusivity fee +70 units at £ 0.5m per annum vs mkt cap £137m

All resolutions were passed at the AGM. So the advantageous re-arrangements of the purchase payments will go through.
The zoom call went over familiar ground. The presentation given during the zoom call will be used to update the website version, so the new presentation should be available on the website some time next week.

But at least shareholders can buy/ sell their shares in either market as the shares have been fungible for several weeks now.

Good and interesting point.
Suspending dealing until Monday would not help, as Canadian markets are closed on Monday 2nd Aug.. It would be difficult to deal in London after the AGM finishes as it would be 5.30pm. It seems whichever market is open when an announcement is made has an advantage. So making an announcement when both are closed (and perhaps on a Friday evening) is perhaps preferable but still not ideal, as London would re-open before Toronto.

CK
I think the critical thing will be the renegotiation of the deferred payments to Galena.If the resolution is passed at the AGM it will unblock the route to re-opening. Not sure funding for SC will also fall into place by close on Friday, but we will see. It would certainly be an appropriate forum to expand on the company's strategy for the future and give an update on financing possibilities.

CK
Do Cornish leprauchauns have prophetic powers? What do you have in mind? News from drilling,other announcements, RNS, funding from the Levelling up fund, a bid................. a tie up with another Cornish miner... Can't wait..........

MM. I can't help with Savannah Resources, but I would make an observation about your CUSN thinking.

Although production at CUSN may be several years away, do not expect the share price to go sideways. The share price is at a huge discount to its potential future price for several reasons.
1. Time - Obviously you have a discount for money which may arrive in the future
2.Stock specific risk - Who knows what will happen in the future to the drivers of value at CUSN e.g. the tin price
3. Market risk - Who knows what will happen when / if QE is reduced for example.
4. Funding risk - Will the company be able to raise the finance to reopen the mines
etc.
But as time goes by, more of the uncertainties become known. More announcements are made which clarify the outlook relating to the company. The discount being applied for these has been and will hopefully continue to reduce.
We expect over the next 12 months or so a series of announcements about the lodes at United Downs. Hopefully each of these may boost the prospects and the share price.
The funding issue may be resolved with Government grants, off-take agreements, loans or equity finance. When this happens the discount for funding risk which in my view is currently substantial may disappear, leading to a sharp share price rise.
So, for the above and other reasons (bids, exploration finds, other company's news etc), I expect the next 12 months could see the share price move up quite strongly, well before any mining starts.

https://uk.investing.com/commodities/tin-streaming-chart

Dumbpunter (not)
I think CL is aiming for the pilot plant at Trelavour to start producing in 2024, but I expect they hope to beat that. I vaguely remember a 20,000 tonne per annum output is aimed for, but I may be muddling up with British Lithium.

Dumpunter
Good observation about valuations. CUSN is sub £40m, whilst EMH is £150m+

MajorOak
Which company is it that you refer to that is exploring for Lithium North of Bodmin?
Your info from Germany /Czech is very valuable. Do you know when their production is likely to start?
My understanding is that Spain and Czech republic are likely to be producing at $3-4k / tonne, but Cornish Lithium’s cost of production will be less because infrastructure is already in place.
Also Germany/ Czech and Spain/Portugal, have both got problems with their local populations. Germany has got a museum on top of the resource. Whereas in Cornwall the population is very positive and supportive.

It seems CL is powering ahead with the effort to produce Lithium in Cornwall. As shareholders in CUSN, we owe a debt of gratitude to Jeremy Wrathall who discovered and told CUSN about the Lithium lode (Copper and Tin) at United Downs. That discovery may make financing the return of mining at South Crofty possible. It is remarkable for someone to give up a successful career to follow up on a hunch and achieve what JW has so far.
My understanding is that the Trelavour site - North of St Austell will be the likely first CL project into production using a newly developed system. The drilling is going to determine the minimum extent of the resource, which is both in rock and in the spoil tips (Cornish Alps).
CL recently had another equity issue through Crowdcube which went extremely well (£8m raised giving a valuation of the company of around £80m-90m). This roughly doubled the valuation since the previous capital increase about 6 months beforehand.
The information available to CL investors is not as good as the information available to CUSN investors, as CUSN has to abide by both AIM and Canadian listing rules. However JW or Derek Linfield told me that it is their intention to float on Aim in 1H 2022 so information flow will improve as will their presence in the media - good though that has already been.
There is good info available on
https://cornishlithium.com/
and from its competitor British Lithium
https://britishlithium.co.uk

I suspect when CL comes to AIM there will be a surge in interest, which will boost knowledge about Cornish Metals too.

The share price at present is at a huge discount to broker valuations. The latest Hannam, valued the shares at 22.2p.
But hang on, that 22.2p was on the basis of taking less than 50% of the NPV of the SC and UD projects. And those NPV's were calculated using way out of date tin prices i.e. too low.
Then you have the potential of all the ore which is not taken into account in the NPV calculations. Indicated and Inferred at SC totalled approx 4 m tonnes, but RW estimates that SC could hold 20m tonnes. The upside on these shares is massive if all goes reasonably well. So, my advice is, if there is a bid, don't rush to accept/cash in a significant profit unless you know of another investment that has a very good chance of being a 10 bagger.

Nuthazard.
Do you mean a buying back in of the exclusive rights to DMG in Poland ?