RE: Couple of questions for Major Oak re Vulcan24 Oct 2021 11:06
Major Oak
Hope you got some good shuteye.
What are the best tracks from Kasabian? It is not a band I have listened to but will seek out a few tracks to see if I like them too.
If you have been away for a while you may have missed the exchanges arising from the Cornish Mining Conference which took place Monday-Tuesday 6 days ago.
Will the big boys take out the small companies? I think CUSN is vulnerable to a take over. Whilst Osisko has 19.99% it could block a full 100% takeover, but Osisko would probably not want to be a minority shareholder with a big company owner deciding dividend and other policies. The trouble is that CUSN has some very attractive assets which are valued at a tiny percentage of their worth (NPV). A big company could buy up CUSN, and finance the reopening of SC and unlock huge extra value. Shareholders find it difficult to turn down tomorrow's price today, even if there is huge upside potential after "tomorrow".
As regards Cornish Lithium, which I know is your focus, I think there is a golden share - which is convertible to many ordinary shares. I guess it is held by Jeremy Wrathall.
In fact note 16 to the accounts states :- "The Ultimate Controlling Parties are JBE Wrathall and LE Wrathall by virtue of their shareholding in the company." source:-
https://cornishlithium.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Accounts-2020.pdf
The golden share probably does have voting powers which could block a takeover. But in any case we know that JW/LW control the company so that is irrelevant to our discussion.
If I was JW, I think I would have arranged the golden share to be able to block a bid. I wouldn't want years of my work to disappear for a 30-40% premium to the last share valuation. However, if a company came along which made a good offer and left JW/LW in position running the business, AND provided finance to see the project forward, the time saved vs an IPO and the security of funding, might be too attractive. I think JW is well motivated to do the right thing for Cornwall/UK, but he has invested a lot in getting CL to where it is now, so would not want to be taken over unless the offer was good AND he could see advantages to Cornwall/UK.
I guess that if CL floats as planned early in Q2 next year, there will be some considerable pressure on JW/LW to convert their golden share into ordinary shares. Investors / Institutions do not like several classes of shares. So up to flotation I think CL is safe, but after the IPO it may not be. So it will be well worth watching what happens in the IPO as if the voting rights are normalised, i.e. the golden share is converted, then a valuation of the business will have to include the possibility of a bid and the value of the ordinary shares should in theory rise as a result. My view is try to buy before the IPO. And ask if you an take part in the next fund raise.
I hope that helps. Now a search for Kasabian!