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Https://www.metal.com/price/Base%20Metals/Tin

...through $50K

https://www.metal.com/price/Base%20Metals/Tin

Stakker2193

They are probably using this presentation............

https://c694f10a-a066-43cb-b7e3-9625fcd598f8.filesusr.com/ugd/3e92e8_58a25067548141db963d21d32fe5b0c1.pdf

The TUN roadshow has started. It will finish on the 15th.

Daltry

"hedge against AI collapse"

If there is an AI collapse the market may also forsee a decline in demand for tin for data centres - which with tungsten, is a driver not a hedge for these shares.

Caird

The big movements arise from the partial conversion of loan notes. Those loan notes not converted are proposed to be replaced with B shares.

The recent RNSs explain.

Thank you vidaloca

Please would you post a link to Andrew Monk's tip talk?

Tin price now through $44,000 per tonne. All quietly transforming the project NPV and increasing the chance of obtaining that NPV..................

The learner "I bought a German brand EV this year....."

One wonders what percentage of the "german" car was made in China.

Mazerunner "How is this rising with so many shares issued at 3p? "

The impact of the dilution caused by the CLNs has been in the share price for some time. The price has stayed up and risen because of the dramatic rise in the price of tungsten over the last 6 months, (3x) and the likely impact that will have on the NPV (a further 2.5x) all further compounded by a huge reduction in financial risk as funding now looks almost inevitable - again worth multiplying up the value. At current tungsten prices ($1,000/mtu) I estimate the NPV of the project is around $1.1bn. To get a per share value, you would need to divide by the fully diluted numbers of shares (i.e. including the B shares etc) and make an allowance for a small amount of extra equity to get into production. The result would be around 55p per share. If you think the tungsten price is going to fall back you would reduce that, if you think the tungsten price will continue to rise - increase it. Those who took a big risk when the tungsten price was $300/mtu and the company was on the verge of bankruptcy look as if the will get their payday.

Tbow112

Thanks for the post.

I would think there needs to be the words " with the exception that" needs to be between those two paragraphs. It suits the two parties being offered the B shares to have the second paragraph as it enables them to avoid the consequences of the first paragraph. But this has opened the way for the BoD to decide that the two need to be compensated for not being subject to the first paragraph. All very convenient as the two parties have board representation.

....as I write.

If China reacts to US moves on Venezuelan oil, it will likely be through restrictions of supply of critical metals. China has done this in the past and it has worked. If restrictions do come in - the whole list of critical metals is likely to see further big movements in price. If investors sense this coming and pile into ETFs the demand for critial metals could rise even further.

Bluegrass

No need for apologies. Tungsten WEst have had a high level of debt - the convertible loan notes. The notes plus the interest paid in kind totally about £32m

However on 31 December 2025, the majority of the loan notes converted into equity. The remainder will also convert into a new share a B share, assuming the shareholders vote for the B share scheme to go ahead. The financial picture at TUN has changed dramatically and will change further - away from debt.

The company will have to raise some funding, but EXIM bank has already stated their interest. (Exim bank is US govt led I believe)

Given TUN has the ability to start producing tungsten 6-12 months after this funding arrives, it will likely be in production first in the South West. It will have cash flow and probably, big backers. It will be looking to increase its resources to increase the number of years the plant can be kept operating.

Having a potential suitor with hundreds of millions of processing plant and other assets already in place, is a great position for SML to be in. It means SML has options of either building its own process plant or with agreement using another company's.

Tbow112

Agreed. How can the board possibly justify the 10% bonus shares? How has the BoD which contains two parties related to the beneficiaries of the bonus shares possibly declare this is in the interests of all shareholders. It isn't it is in the interest of two influential shareholders and is paid for by the other shareholders.

How is it that new investors were brought in for the last tranche of the CLN's? One such late addition now turns out to be a board member. Why was the last tranche of CLN investment not offeredd to all shareholders?

Re your comment "The CLN holders have had years to remedy the problem created by having two contradictory clauses in the CLN documentation"

PLease would you post the two contradictory clauses?

.... 11% before any trades reported

NewOrmy

There is a huge gap between the share price and the likely NPV of the project. Much of this is due to funding risk, which can take several forms.

One is that funding does not appear or is expensive. Another is that the company asks shareholders to waive pre-emption rights and then the company is able to sell shares to institutions (placings) at significant discounts to the market price - all of which can result in much value being transferred from existing shareholders to new shareholders. We should ask the BoD how they view pre-emption rights and also ask if the company will ensure that existing shareholders can take part in the placings on the same terms as the institutions. I am afraid the recent record of small mining companies is very mixed in that respect. Cornish Metals did well and looked after its small shareholders whilst Cornish Lithium did not - twice. Tungsten West shareholders have also recently seen massive dilution after conversion of its convertible loan notes - So whilst there is a lot to be positive about - beware.

Tungsten West is likely to be up and running in about 12 months time. Generating cash. And at some point needing more resources. And having the plant capable of processing output from Redmoor. I can see a deal being done.........................perhaps a few years down the line..

Question is which of the two parties at Tungsten West will be in control - or will they work together? Which one has the deeper pockets and can buy the other out? Which ever it is, the resources at Redmoor will be of supreme interest to TUN, but there will be plenty of other parties.

GeorgeinCornwall

Nasty niffs continue

Re share price movement, much may depend on the intentions of the two 29.9% groupings - i.e. those that are lined up to receive a 10% kicker of B shares. Both parties have just under 30% and more if they choose to convert their remaining CLNs. Will both want to control/own the company? Can the two parties work together? Do their aims co-incide? We may see one of the two, make a bid to take the other out.

If shareholders vote down the extraordinary resolution, will it make it more likely one of the two parties will make a bid for the lot? It will be difficult to vote the resolution down, as both parties have a strong financial incentive (10% bonus issue at other shareholders expense) for it to go through. The two have 59.8% of the total possible votes but will need 75%. So they are nearly there. This is possibly why other memebers of the concert party are not restricted from conversion.

The statement reads:-

".... the Company has restricted the number of new Ordinary Shares issued to Lansdowne Partners (UK) Ltd ("Lansdowne") and to the two key members of the Drakewood Concert Party....." Note 2 key members, not ALL members. Note also the board representation for these investors.

Let us hope that regulators are not all on holiday at the moment.

Trouble is can they make a bid when they probably have inside information about the funding situation? The final round of finance is expected in Q1. Once that is agreed, it is likely the company will be worth considerably more than it is now - even allowing for full conversion of the CLNs.

What might happen is an announcement about funding - (so they are no longer insiders) followed by a bid or possibly even a bid from each of the two parties.